HomeMy WebLinkAboutItem 3.5 ABAG Housing Needs
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AGENDA STATEMENT
MEETING DATE: November 14, 1983
SUBJECT:
ABAG Housing Needs Determination
EXHIBITS ATTACHED:
Memo from Blayney-Dyett regarding ABAG
Housing Needs Determination
RECOMMENDATION:
f:r
Accept the ABAG figures either by motion
or by no action
FINANCIAL STATEMENT:
None
DESCRIPTION: As discussed in the memo from Blayney-
Dyett, the City's General Plan Consultant, ABAG has prepared
regional housing needs, as required by State law. ABAG has
determined that by 1990, Dublin will need an additional
1,956 housing units to accommodate anticipated growth and to
provide a desirable vacancy rate. The projected need is
further defined by type (single family unit, multifamily
unit), tenure (owner-occupied, renter), and income category
(very low, low, moderate, above moderate).
Based on General Plan Working Paper #2, Dublin should
be able to meet the project need in terms of total number of
units.
In terms of type of units, Dublin will probably produce
fewer single family units and far exceed the multifamily
units projected by ABAG. Dublin will probably also exceed
the tenure projected need for rental units.
For the income categories of low to very low, it is
very unlikely that 665 units (34%) of the additional
projected need will be produced in Dublin. Even 450 units
(23%) affordable to moderate income households may be
difficult to achieve.
If the City accepts the ABAG figures, the figures will
only need to be included in the housing needs assessment, of
the Housing Element, of the General Plan. The figures do
not need to be used as Dublin's housing goals and do not
commit the City to any particular housing program.
Staff recommends that the City Council accept the ABAG
figures either by motion or by no action.
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ITEM NO.
'-'.5
COPIES TO:
..
Blayney-Dyett
Urban and Regional Planners
John A. Bla~lnc)'. AICP
Michacl V Dyell, AICP
MEMORANDUM
To: City of Dublin
From: Blayney-Dyett
"-.
Date: September 29, 1983
RE: ABAG Housing Needs Determinations
The City of Dublin has been asked to respond to the Housing Needs Determinations
which ABAG has prepared for it pursuant to Government Code Section 65584,
Regional Housing Needs. This memorandum reviews ABAG's findings, relates them to
planned and anticipated development in the city, and discusses implications for the
city. . .
~AGHo~~NoomDa~mooti~
ABAG's Housing Needs Determinations are presented in Housing Needs Determina-
tions - San Francisco Bay Region (July 1983). Needs Determinations have been
prepared for the nine Bay Area counties, their incorporated cities, and the total.
unincorporated area for each county. Jurisdictions have 90 days to respond to the
Housing Needs Determinations, which consist of several elements, as follows.
Existing Need represents the number of additional units a jurisdiction would have
provided in 1980 in order to have a housing market in "better" supply-demand
balance. According to ABAG, Dublin's "existing need" in 1980 was 296 units. The
"existing need" figure is, in effect, an analysis of the city's housing situation,
reflecting the extent of unm et housing demand. "Existing need" is included in
"projected need."
Projected Need is the total number of units needed to accommodate anticipated
growth in the city and provide for a desirable vacancy rate. The "projected need"
figure is the number of additional units that would ideally be developed in the city by
1990, based on the household projections developed by ABAG and presented in its
Pr()jections '83. Household projections reflect the distribution of employment
opportunities, availability of suitable sites, and commuting patterns. ABAG's deter-
mination of Dublin's "projected need" is 1,956 housing units.
Projected Housing Need by Type and Tenure is one of the factors that must be taken
into account in the determination of regional need for housing as required by state
law. ABAG presents "housing need by type and by tenure" in two separate sets of
70 Zoc Slreel
San Francisco, CA 94]07
(4]5) 543-4878
.'
Memo re Housing Needs Determinations
September 29, 1983
Page 2
tables. Distribution by type and tenure rests on the assumption that "the relative
distribution of housing would be approximately that of the 1980 Census" (p. 17). Using
this assumption, ABAG has projected a need for 1,794 single-family units (92%), 162
multi-family units (8%), and no mobile homes. ABAG projects a need for 1,485 owner-
occupied units (76%) and 471 rental units.
Projected Need by Income Category is not a continuation of current patterns but
rather a figure that includes a redistribution of households by income category
throughout the region. The objective of the redistribution is to "avoid further
impaction of ocalities with relatively high proportions of lower income households"
(Government Code Section 65584). To generate the figures, ABAG averaged existing
city percentages in each income category with the existing county and regional
percentages. Median household income as reported by the Census and definitions of
income groupings established by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban
Development form the basis of ABAG's calculations. Existing distribution of
households by income category is presented in addition to "projected housing need by
income category."
DUBLIN HOUSEHOLDS
Above
Very Low Low Moderate Moderate'
1980 Census distribution- 9% 11% 26% 54%
household income by percent
Projected need by income 391 274 450 841
category (ABAG) 20% 14% 23% 43%
This suggests that a regional redistribution of households by income category would
result in more than double the percentage of very low income households, with only
relatively slight changes in the percentages of low and moderate income households.
Relation to Planned and Anticipated Development
The total "projected need" for Dublin is slightly less than the number of units
currently approved or under consideration by the city (see table below). If ABAG's
"projected need" figure is compared to a low projection of potential housing units
based on Table 1 in Blayney-Dyett's Working Paper #2, the total of 7,127 includes
2,699 additional units that exceed the "projected need" by 743 units, or 38%. Blayney-
Dyett's high potential housing unit projection exceeds ABAG's "projected need" figure
by 2,456, or 125%. Clearly, Dublin should be able to meet its "projected need"
relative to total number of units needed for all income groups as determined by
ABAG.
Blayney-Dyett Urban and Regional Planners
..
Memo re Housing Needs Determinations
September 29, 1983
Page 3
crry OF DUBUN: ABll.JTY TO
MEET ABAG PROJECTED NEEDS, 198()-1990
Low Projection
Existing Units
Units approved or under consideration
Potential units on unsubdivided land
Total additional units
Uni ts in excess of ABAG projected need
Percent
4,428
2,023
676
2,699
743
38%
High Projection
4,428
2,023
2,389
4,412
2,456
125%
The types of housing units currently approved, under consideration, and projected will
bring about a significant change in the composition of Dublin's housing stock, one
which is not reflected in ABAG's projections, as they simply assume the continuation
of past trends. Even under the low projection presented in Working Paper #2, which
assumes relatively low residential densities, 1,427 new single-family homes are pro-
jected. This projection would result in a total of 77% single-family homes, versus the
92% suggested by ABAG. Under Blayney-Dyett's High Projection, 894 single family
units would be produced in Dublin, resulting in 56% single-family units.
Uni 18 currently approved or under consideration in Dublin as well as our low and high
projections will produce a greater mix of housing types than have previously been
available in DUblin, which means greater opportunity for the production of affordable
units. We cannot anticipate the number of ,rental units that will be developed under
the low and high projections, since the division of multi-family units between
condominiums and rental units is not known. However, with anticipated multi-family
units ranging from 1,272 to 3,518 it is probable that the city will exceed the projected
need for 471 rental units.
Projected Need by Income Category is presented as both absolute numbers of units and
percentage of units in each category. It is very unlikely that 34% of the units pro-
duced in Dublin over the next ten years could be made affordable to low and very low
income households. This percentage seems particularly unrealistic in light of the
extremely limited availability of public subsidies for housing, which would be
necessary for the production of affordable units at such a large scale. Even the
production of 23% units affordable to moderate income households may be difficult,
though new units at higher prices may indirectly make older affordable units available.
While the percentages projected by ABAG are high, the numeric needs might be appro-
priate goals for production of affordable housing if the city's density decisions allow
development to approach our high projections. Under the low projections most
projects would be small, making internal subsidies impossible and requiring public
assistance. Densities would be lower, resulting generally in higher cost and fewer
rental uni ts.
With higher densities and larger projects (more units), the City might be able to use
density bonuses and other incentive programs or inclusionary requirements to produce
Blayney-Dyett Urban and Regional Planners
Memo re Housing Needs Determinations
September 29, 1983
Page 4
more affordable Wlits. Under the high projection, ABAG's projected need for very low
and low income households stated numerically would equal approximately 15% of
Dublin's total additional units. Many below market-rate housing programs are struc-
tured to produce 10% to 15% affordable units, so this seems a reasonable goal, though
difficult to attain.
The city's existing housing stock is also a potential source of affordable Wlits, which
could be developed through a program to encourage second units. For example, if six
out of every hundred existing residences in Dublin rented out second Wlits, the
274 units affordable to low income households in ABAG's Projected Need could be
provided.
Implicatims for Dublin
According to Jean Safir of ABAG, the city is only required to respond to the Housing
Needs Determination by the end of the 90-day comment period (October 28, 1983) if it
rejects ABAG's figures and proposes revisions. Revisions must be based on available
data and accepted planning methodology; if the City does propose alternatives it is
required to provide evidence supporting the new figures.
If the City accepts ABAG's figures it does not need to take action during the comment
period. We suggest that the City accept the ABAG figures, either actively or by not
responding to ABAG within the comment period. No action on the City's part
indicates not acceptance of the ABAG figures as the city's housing go8J.s, but rather
acceptance of the figures as accurately reflecting the city's housing needs.
Acceptance of ABAG's Housing Needs Determinations would not' commit Dublin to a
particular housing program, but only to including the fair share figures in the housing
needs assessment of the Housing Element. The Housing Element must also include
quantified objectives for housing production over a five year period. These objectives
will reflect the extent to which the City believes its stated needs can be met.
Blayney-Dyett Urban and Regional Planners