HomeMy WebLinkAboutReso 191-12 Econ Dev Strategy RESOLUTION NO. 191 -12
A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL
OF THE CITY OF DUBLIN
ADOPTING THE CITY OF DUBLIN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
WHEREAS, one of the City Council's FY 2011/12 strategic initiatives for Economic
Development was to develop an Economic Development Strategy; and
WHEREAS, the City selected the services of Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS)
to develop the Economic Development Strategy. EPS has extensive experience in creating
quality economic development strategies and elements for cities, counties and other agencies
throughout the United States; and
WHEREAS, EPS worked closely with stakeholders and collected data on the
opportunities that exist in Dublin to create jobs and grow businesses; and
WHEREAS, initial Strategy findings were shared with the City Council's Economic
Development Committee, comprised of Mayor Sbranti and Councilmember Biddle. The
Committee supported bringing the Economic Development Strategy (Exhibit A) forward for the
Council's consideration; and
WHEREAS, the Strategy focuses on four key priorities: 1) Enhancing quality of place for
businesses and residents; 2) Small business support and growth; 3) Development of the
Eastern Dublin Transit Center; and 4) Development in Downtown Dublin; and
WHEREAS, the Strategy recommendations were presented to the City Council on
November 6, 2012 for consideration and include the following:
Strategy 1: Continue Efforts to Enhance the Competitiveness of the City and Maintain a
Strong and Diverse Economic Base
Action 1: Codify Existing Economic Development Practices
Action 2: Create a Comprehensive Marketing and Branding Plan for the City
Action 3: Focus Business Visitation Program on High-Growth Companies .
Action 4: Advance Participation in Regional Efforts
Strategy 2: Improve Conditions for Small Businesses
Action 1: Enhance Current Development Services Practices
Strategy 3: Position Development Sites to Meet Current and Future Market Demand and
Provide Necessary Marketing Support
Action 1: Partner with the Alameda County Surplus Property Authority on the
Eastern Dublin Transit Center
Action 2: Support Downtown Specific Plan Area Property Owners' Business
Attraction and Development Efforts
Page 1 of 2
Strategy 4: Expedite Development Progress Downtown and Optimize Conditions for
Entertainment Uses
Action 1: Explore Potential Funding Sources and Financing Tools to Advance
Real Estate and Economic Development
Action 2: Explore the Creation of an Economic Development Corporation
NOW, THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED that the City Council of the City of Dublin does
hereby adopt the Economic Development Strategy for the City of Dublin as prepared by
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
PASSED, APPROVED AND ADOPTED this 6th day of November, 2012, by the following
vote:
AYES: Councilmembers Biddle, Hart, Hildenbrand, Swalwell, and Mayor Sbranti
NOES: None
ABSENT: None
ABSTAIN: None
Mayor
ATTEST.
6eA,o ./P
City Clerk
Reso No. 191-12, Adopted 11-6-12, Item 7.1 Page 1 of 1
Administrative Draft Report
City of Dublin Economic
111,' UPLf es nj l,rrur( L'.<:
Development Strategy
•
Prepared for
City of Dublin
Prepared by
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
October 23, 2012
Economic&Planning Systems,Inc.
2501 Ninth Street, Suite 200
Setkeley_, CA 94720-2257
510 841 9250 tel
810 841 9205 fax
Berkeley EPS #21541
Denver
Los Angeles
Sac emento
www.epsys.com
Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION 1
2. BACKGROUND 3
Socioeconomics 3
Economy 3
3. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY FRAMEWORK 10
•
4. REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES 13
5. STAKEHOLDER CONSIDERATIONS 16
6. STRATEGY RECOMMENDATIONS 19
TECHNICAL APPENDIX A-1
Socioeconomic Conditions and Trends A-1
Industries and Clusters for Economic Development A-28
Economic Outlook A-33
Commercial Real Estate Trends A-35
Competitive Landscape A-38
Economic Projections for Dublin A-40
•
List of Figures
Figure 1: City of Dublin Employment Trend 4
Figure 2: East Bay Employment Trends and Projections 5
Figure 3: Dublin Employment by Industry 7
Figure 4: General Categories of Competitiveness - 10
Figure 5: Dublin Capture of Class A Office Space Deliveries (Square Feet) 13
Figure 6: Alameda Class A Office Lease Rate Trend 15
Figure 7: Priorities, Goals, and Strategy 19
Figure 8: Financing and Funding Tools 26
Figure 9: Summary of Economic Development Strategy 28
•
List of Figures (Technical Appendix)
Figure 10: City of Dublin Regional Context A-1
Figure 11: City of Dublin Population A-2
Figure 12: Population Growth Comparison (2001-2011) A-3
Figure 13: Median Age Comparison A-4
Figure 14: Population by Race Comparison A-5
Figure 15: City of Dublin Educational Attainment A-6
Figure 16: College Degree Educational Attainment Comparison A-7
Figure 17: Educational Attainment Trend Comparison A-8
Figure 18: Income Level Comparison A-9
Figure 19: Household Income Distribution Comparison A-10
Figure 20: Resident Employment by Occupation Comparison A-11
Figure 21: Resident Employment by Industry Comparison A-12
Figure 22: Unemployment Rate Comparison A-13
Figure 23: Tri-Valley Commute Patterns A-14
Figure 24: City of Dublin Employment Trend A-15
Figure 25: City of Dublin Employment by Industry A-16
Figure 26: Tri-Valley Employment by Industry Comparison A-17
Figure 27: Employment Specialization by Industry Comparison A-18
Figure 28: Employment Growth Comparison (Percentage) A-19
• Figure 29: Employment Growth Comparison (Absolute) A-20
Figure 30: City of Dublin Economic Output by Industry A-21
• Figure 31: City of Dublin Establishments by Number of Employees A-22
Figure 32: City of Dublin Economic Base Industries • A-24
Figure 33: City of Dublin Economic Base and Local-Serving Industries A-25
Figure 34: City of Dublin "Gazelle" Companies A-26
Figure 35: Taxable Sales Per Capita Comparison A-27
•
•
List of Figures (Technical Appendix) [continued]
Figure 36: City of Dublin Employment Summary A-29
Figure 37: Viable Economic Clusters in Dublin A-30
Figure 38: City of Dublin Economic Cluster Detail A-31
Figure 39: East Bay Employment Outlook A-33
Figure 40: East Bay Employment Growth Outlook A-34
Figure 41: Alameda Class A Office Market Trend A-35
Figure 42: City of Dublin Class A Office Market Trend A-36
Figure 43: City of Dublin Class A Office Development Capture A-37
Figure 44: Alameda Class A Lease Rates A-38
Figure 45: Bishop Ranch A-39
Figure 46: Hacienda Business Park A-40
Figure 47: Dublin Nonfarm Employment Outlook A-42
1 . INTRODUCTION
Unlike most cities in the Tri-Valley, Dublin has room to grow, with a variety of opportunities for
economic development and urban enhancement throughout the City. This nearly 47,000-person
municipality with over 19,000 jobs still has significant undeveloped land capacity and large infill
sites. For residents and businesses, Dublin is a strategic, central location in the still-burgeoning
Tri-Valley region of the San Francisco East Bay. With about 35 percent of Alameda County
population growth occurring in the Tri-Valley over the last 10 years, the region is evolving
rapidly. While reputable forecasts indicate wide-ranging economic futures for the Bay Area, .
there is agreement that the regional economy has stabilized and is poised for growth. A review
of well-accepted regional economic projections reveals that the East Bay (Alameda and Contra
Costa Counties) will add 175,000 or more jobs over the next 20 years. This Economic
Development Strategy offers realistic, implementable recommendations for the City of Dublin to
improve its relative position in the region, to attract new jobs, and grow its economic base.
In addition to presenting proposed strategic activities for the City, this report presents analytical
findings and rationale for the recommendations. Dublin's Economic Development Strategy
commenced in spring 2012. The process included:
• Stakeholder interviews
• Economic research and analysis
• Real estate research and analysis
• Public workshops
• Strategy development
• City Council and Committee workshops
• Strategy documentation
It is anticipated that the Economic Development Strategy will provide City staff with a framework
for future economic development activities over the next several years. Currently, the City
maintains an Office of Economic Development within the City Manager's Office to implement
economic development programs in Dublin. Through a diverse suite of targeted initiatives, the
City's overarching activities for economic development include:
• Business attraction and recruitment
• Business retention and expansion assistance
• Business development support
These activities support the City's overall goals for economic development - To enhance the
competitiveness of the City and to maintain a strong and diverse economic base. The
Economic Development Strategy strives to achieve these goals in three primary areas:
• Continuation of existing economic development programs
• Enhancement and expansion of current economic development programs
• Evaluation and implementation of new economic development programs
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Through the Economic Development Strategy process, the City has identified that residents and
businesses hope to sustain the "quality of life" and improve the "quality of place" in Dublin. For
this reason, a key feature of the Economic Development Strategy is its emphasis on land use-
and real estate-based strategies for urban enhancement.
•
•
2
•
2. BACKGROUND
Socioeconomics
With buildable land, desirable communities, and strong transportation connections to the rest of
the Bay Area, the Tri-Valley has grown rapidly in recent years. Population in the Tri-Valley
increased by over 20 percent between 2001 and 2011, accounting for more than one-third of
growth in the East Bay. Dublin grew by 44 percent during this period, adding about 14,000.
residents. Approximately 30 percent of Dublin's current population is attributable to growth over
the past 10 years. Within the Tri-Valley, San Ramon was the only city that added more residents
during this timeframe and it is now largely built out.
With growth, Dublin has become more cosmopolitan. The City's residents are increasingly
diverse, well-educated, and affluent. Asian and multi-race persons have become a significantly
greater share of the population, with Asian residents now accounting for over a quarter of the
City's population.' The educational attainment of residents has increased notably; over half of
Dublin's residents now hold a college degree (up 10 percentage points since 2000).2
Accordingly, the median household income in Dublin has reached $109,000 per year, in line with
the Tri-Valley overall.
Economy
. While employment levels in Dublin fluctuated dramatically during the 2000s, recent data indicate
that total employment in the City is up. Dublin had over 19,000 jobs in 2010, despite two
recessions (the technology bust in 2001 and the great recession of 2008-09). The jobs-housing
balance in Dublin remains healthy at 1.4 jobs per household. However, most Dublin residents
commute out of the City for work, with significant numbers going to other Tri-Valley cities, San
Jose, Oakland, and San Francisco.
I. Asian is defined by the US Census Bureau as a person having origins in any of the original peoples
of the Far East, Southeast Asia, or the Indian subcontinent.
• 2 College degree attainment includes AA/AS degree or greater.
•
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
The Tri-Valley has been and will continue to be a hotspot for "knowledge workers" in the East
Bay. The EBEDA report highlights the fact that "companies like Oracle, WorkDay, Taleo, and
Sybase (now SAP) are located in the Tri-Valley region which is now home to a significant
software cluster." The report also documents that the Tri-Valley offers a "large base of skilled
workers" and has "more affordable housing than San Francisco or the Peninsula."4
While the regional economic forecasts vary in their quantitative estimates of job growth, they
confirm the potential for economic expansion in the East Bay. This analysis evaluates five
recently published and well-regarded forecasts, including Woods & Poole Economics (WPE),
Moody's Analytics, CalTrans, Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) projections from
2009, and the more-recent ABAG Sustainable Communities Strategy forecast from 2011. From
2010 through 2030, the forecasts indicate that the East Bay will add between 1.77,000 and
398,000 jobs (17 percent to 37 percent growth). Figure 2 presents the five employment growth
forecasts for the East Bay.s
Figure 2: East Bay Employment Trends and Projections
1,000,000
1,500,000
1,400,000 a
•
1,300,000
1,200,000
•
1,100,000
• •
1,000,000 ,' •
900,000
800,000 . , , . , . , .._.—,--{—,
000 0n 0`L 005 00b 0c'000 001 000 000 0�0 0N^ORi. Rb 0nb O^5 0n0 O0 0.�0• O`L' 0,y,.0,q.O`L',0ryb 0,y6 0,ti'o O,�'1 0,y0 0ryo 000
9 ti ti 9. ti ti 9 9 9 h 9, 9 ti 9 ti 9 M1 M1 • ti • • • • • • • •
—s—woods&Poole --e--Moody's 'y CalTrans 2012 --SCS 2012(Draft) —,,—ABAG 2009
Sources: Woods& Poole Economics; Moody's Analytics; California Department of Transportation;ABAG; EPS .
4 Ibid. •
5 Note that because of inclusion/exclusion of various employment types and differences between .
underlying data sources, base employment estimates vary considerably across the forecasts'.
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Venture Capital Trends
The recent trends in venture capital (VC) funding for East Bay firms support the notion of healthy
employment growth in the future. Research finds that VC funding is correlated with measurably
faster growth.6 Total reported VC funding for East Bay companies increased to $1.46 billion in
2011, up 35 percent from 2010. Tri-Valley firms received nearly 40 percent of these funds, over
$550 million, with more than $26 million going to Dublin-based Tria Beauty.
The top five VC recipients in the Tri-Valley represent the breadth of emerging high-value
economic activities occurring here, including energy development, high-technology
manufacturing, and professional, scientific, and technical services:
• Fulcrum BioEnergy Inc. (Pleasanton) - $175 million in early-stage/expansion funding for this
developer of alternative energy facilities
• BridgeLux'Inc. (Livermore) - $102 million in late-stage funding for this manufacturer of LED
lighting technologies
• Workday Inc. (Pleasanton) - $85 million in expansion funding for this developer of software
solutions for human resource managers
• IntegenX Inc. (Pleasanton) - $40 million in late-stage funding for this manufacturer of
complex analytical instrumentation
• Tria Beauty (Dublin) - $26 million in late-stage funding for this developer of over-the-counter
cosmetic medical products
Significant new employment can be expected to accompany the growth of these and other
successful up-and-coming innovation firms. Accommodating this job growth locally should be a
priority for Dublin and other Tri-Valley cities.
Dublin's Economic Composition
Currently, five industry sectors account for the majority of employment in Dublin, including:
• Retail Trade - 17 percent of jobs;
• Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services - 11 percent of jobs;
• Manufacturing —nine percent of jobs;
• Accommodation and Food Services - nine percent of jobs; and
• Administration and Waste Services - seven percent of jobs.
6 Building on our Assets, Economic Development &Job Creation in the East Bay, East Bay EDA (2011)
•
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
• Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
' Figure 3: Dublin Employment by Industry
Natural Resources and Mining 0.1% I
UUIIOes
im
0.5%
Construction - 6.3%
Manufacturing 1 19 3%
Wholesale Trade '6.5%11
Retail Trade 2=== i 16.6% i.
Transportation and Warehousing MIMI 1.6% i ! 1
i
Information - ' 3.0%
Finance and Insurance ===== 47%
Real Estate Rental and Leasing 31%
1
Professional,Scientific,and Technical Services - 10.9% I
Management of Companies and Enterprises 01% I
i t4 j
Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation._ X 74%
Educational Services 1.0%
I
Health Care and Social Assistance "— - % 4 1
4.4
Arts,Entertainment,and Recreation
1.5%
Accommodation and Food Services 8'9%
Other Services ' - 6.3% ' I
I
Government and Unclassified I 713% ',,F
- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
Employment 1%of Total)
Sources: National Establishment Time Series (NETS); Reference USA; CSER; and EPS
Retail
In addition to supporting more Dublin jobs than any other sector, retail establishments are an
important amenity for Dublin businesses and residents. The City supports a diversity of retail
offerings, including convenience and comparison goods. Retail establishments are found
throughout the City, particularly along the Dublin Boulevard corridor. In total, there are
approximately 3.8 million square feet of retail space in Dublin. While there is some vacancy
(about 8.4 percent citywide), including some outmoded spaces, most centers remain well-
occupied and financially viable. Dublin's retail sector produces greater taxable sales per capita
than any other Tri-Valley..gity.
Professional Services and Information Technology
The well-established Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (PSTS) and Information
industries in Dublin offer skilled workers relatively high-paying employment opportunities. These
sectors serve international markets and bring new wealth into the local economy. In Dublin, the
PSTS industry makes up a larger share of total employment than in any other Tri-Valley City,
nearly 11 percent of jobs. While Dublin employment in PSTS contracted during the early 2000s,
more recent trends indicate a return to growth in the sector.
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
• Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
In the early 2000s, City leaders coined the term "Digital Dublin," as major technology companies
chose to locate in the City, attracted to new (built to suit) office buildings near the core of a
growing cluster of software and information technology businesses in the Tri-Valley. On the
heels of office development at Dublin Corporate Center (430,000 square feet in three buildings)
and Emerald Point (415,000 square feet in three buildings), Sybase/SAP (previously of
Emeryville) leased a 400,000-square foot, built-to-suit headquarters campus in Dublin.
While it has been over a decade since office development has occurred, this analysis anticipates
new office projects in Dublin are on the horizon. Regional employment growth and space
demand from high-value professional services and information sectors, coupled with a paucity of
available high-quality office space, likely will push lease rates to a level that will support new
construction. Local real estate experts have indicated that $3 rents (full service, per square foot
per month) are necessary to spur new projects in Dublin. If the economy picks up as the
regional growth forecasts suggest, Dublin could see demand for as much as 200,000 square feet
of office space annually, after vacancies in the regional market are filled.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing continues to play an important role in the Dublin economy, in terms of
employment and output, and by contributing to overall economic diversity and stability. Though
the share of total employment in manufacturing has been falling, manufacturing still accounts for
almost one in ten jobs within the City. Many of these are good quality, well-paid jobs.
Manufacturing is Dublin's most significant industry from a gross sales perspective, generating
nearly $570 million a year in economic output. Though manufacturing jobs in Dublin make up a
lesser share of total employment compared with other Tri-Valley cities, such as Pleasanton where
nearly one in five jobs is in manufacturing, the regional and national shift away from
manufacturing suggests that Dublin should focus primarily on retention (rather than attraction)
of these jobs.
Industry Subsectors and Economic C lusters
Looking forward, the economic data reveal specialized industry subsectors with potential for
growth, including select Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services jobs (e.g., scientific
research, engineering, legal, and advertising) and Information jobs (e.g., software, data
processing, and telecommunications). These subsectors have exhibited relatively rapid local
employment expansion in recent years. Also, notable economic clusters (i.e., concentrations of
interrelated businesses/industries) have evolved in Dublin and the Tri-Valley, including:
• Information and Communications Technology
• Health Care and Biomedical
• Business and Financial Services
Fast-growing industry subsectors and economic clusters are potential strategic targets for the
City's economic development work. These growth industries and clusters are well-aligned with
the City's General Plan, which provides zoning for new office spaces in desirable areas with
significant land capacity, an advantage in attracting these types of jobs to the City.
•
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
•
Business Establishments
Dublin is home to a number of large corporations. Top employers in the City include:
• Carl Zeiss - an international optics and opto-electronics firm;
• SAP (formerly Sybase) - enterprise and mobile software firm with global customer base; and
• MicroDental Laboratories - a fabricator of high-quality dental restorations, part of a North
American network of labs (DTI)
Small firms also play an important role in the Dublin economy. More than nine out of ten
businesses in Dublin employ fewer than 20 jobs. Both large and small businesses in Dublin offer
great potential for employment growth in the future.
Tri-Valley Labor Force •
Much of the recent economic success in the Tri-Valley can be attributed to the skilled labor force.
Even within the well-educated East Bay, the Tri-Valley is notably well-positioned with highly-
skilled workers, particularly in computer-related fields. Census data for the Tri-Valley indicate
that a greater share of'residents is employed in computer and mathematical occupations than
the East Bay overall (6.4 percent versus 4.7 percent).? When Fortune 500 firm General Electric
decided to open a global innovation center for software research in the Tri-Valley, a
spokesperson for the company noted that "proximity to talent" and "community" were important
aspects of the decision.8 Anecdotal information from local business representatives reveals that
the Tri-Valley is an ideal location for knowledge workers and their families, with excellent public
schools, reasonably-priced housing, and community stability and safety.
7 American Community Survey, US Census Bureau (2005-9)
8 General Electric to take 125,000 square feet in Bishop Ranch, San Francisco Business Times,
(November 17, 2011) •
9
3. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY FRAMEWORK
This Economic Development Strategy focuses on potential actions that could be taken by the City
of Dublin to improve its competitive position relative to other California cities. The Strategy
views competitiveness as the City's overall "value proposition" for businesses and residents,
considering factors that influence the attractiveness of the City for commerce and living, relative
to the cost of the location. Competitiveness reflects a multitude of subjective measures. In
general, elements of competitiveness include (1) a city's attractiveness to companies, (2)
attractiveness to individuals, (3) reputation/brand, and (4) innovation environment (i.e.,
potential for home-grown economic development).
Figure 4: General Categories of Competitiveness
iF�t p
r °'tl`31 l i49C* 1.310
In addition to traditional economic development tools that focus primarily on cost-based
incentives for business, a holistic view of economic competitiveness also emphasizes the
importance of"quality of place" and "quality of life" factors in attracting companies and
individuals, establishing a good reputation, and fostering innovation. Throughout California, the
United States, and globally, City-regions compete with one another to attract skilled labor, new
investment, and quality jobs. Increasingly, economic growth is driven by knowledge, skills,
innovation, and entrepreneurship. Attracting talented people is an imperative. In competing for
talent, cities are distinguishing themselves by investing in urban development, improving quality
of place and quality of life factors for residents and workers.
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
In a recent report prepared for the US Department of Commerce, Economic Development
Administration, the Council on Competitiveness states that:
Perceptions about quality of life in a region can heavily impact attraction and retention
efforts of companies, skilled workers, and entrepreneurs. Talent is mobile, and quality of
life has assumed greater importance in economic development practices as many regions
have developed strategies to nurture the "creative c/ass." 9-
Cities around the world are embracing economic development programs aimed at bolstering
quality of place and quality of life factors. In Toronto, the City's economic development strategy
acknowledges that "quality of place provides a competitive advantage." Toronto's strategy
recognizes that:
Producing, attracting and retaining knowledge economy workers is probably the most
critical element for success in the contemporary economy. Entrepreneurs and skilled
labor are increasingly mobile assets. Qualified knowledge economy business people and
workers can choose which cities they will live and work in. The quality of place a city
provides, which is often indicative of the quality of life offered, can be an important factor
in their location decision...
...a city's arts and cultural amenities, including not just formal events and places like
symphony halls or museums, but the vitality of its more informal amenities, like
restaurants, street cafés, bookstores and outdoor festivals, become tangible assets that
play a role in fostering creativity and innovation.1O
An increasing body of research supports the notion that quality of place can be a significant
factor in site selection decisions and that the emotional connection to a community can be as
important quantitative determinants.
• A 2003 study from the Center for Urban and Regional Studies at the University of North
Carolina concludes that quality of place is increasingly important in site selection and
investment decisions, particularly for technology companies that rely on highly-skilled
knowledge workers and are less sensitive to location-based factors such as proximity to
markets, raw materials, and inexpensive labor.11
9 Measuring Regional Innovation, The Council on Competitiveness (2005).
10 Toronto Economic Development Strategy, City of Toronto (2000)
11 The Importance of Quality of Life in the Location Decisions of New Economy Firms, Center for
Urban and Regional Studies at the University of North Carolina (2003)
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
• A 2011 study from the Silicon Valley Workforce Investment Boards considered the high-
technology economy in the South Bay and found that the "Valley's high quality of life -
including beautiful weather, good schools, and the ability to live and work in the suburbs—
was a major advantage, making CEOs want to locate their companies there and attracting
talented workers and their families." 12
Land use decisions are central to the City of Dublin's capacity to compete for jobs and economic
growth. The community's ability to develop real estate and public space at new and reused
sites, locate interrelated companies near each other, encourage growth at key business nodes,
and build vibrant, engaging, and contemporary places is central to its competitiveness.
Promoting real estate investment and achieving desirable land use outcomes is critical to
• positioning Dublin for economic growth and long-term sustainability.
It is important that the City government actively participate in city building. According to a
recent Urban Land Institute paper, "Investors and entrepreneurs want to see a community and
its leadership moving to the future before allocating their time and capital. A city hoping to have
a thriving and sustainable economy needs to be a place that demonstrates a track record of
effective partnerships for this type of ongoing innovation to occur." 13 The City has taken steps
to establish a distinctive Downtown center, including adoption of a Downtown Dublin Specific
Plan that seeks to create a vibrant, walkable mixed-use district. While there has been progress
toward the vision, with new projects under construction and in planning, the City may wish to
consider additional ways to move Downtown investment forward.
•
12 Silicon Valley in Transition: Economic and Workforce Implications in the Age of iPads, Android
Apps, and the Social Web (July 2011)
13 Building on Innovation: The Significance of Anchor Institutions in a New Era of City Building, Urban
Land Institute (2011)
12
4. REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES
With Dublin's Class A Office vacancy rate now at only five percent, new office development will
be essential to support job creation within the City. Dublin's General Plan and more detailed
Specific Plans (e.g., Downtown Specific Plan) envision additional commercial development in the
City. The City has sites, both in the East and West, proximate to BART and the highways, which
are ideal-for new office space.
In step with countywide trends, Dublin enjoyed a commercial office building boom in the late
1990s and early 2000s, with delivery of roughly a million square feet of new Class A office space
occurring in the City. Between 1999 and 2002, Class A office development in Dublin accounted
for almost a third of Alameda County's new supply. With a return to economic growth and
regional job creation, Dublin is still well-positioned to enjoy further commercial development.
Figure 5: Dublin Capture of Class A Office Space Deliveries (Square Feet)
•
1999 195,000 460,000 42%
2000 288.241 621.584 46%
2001 248,285 1.391,895 18%
2002 230,000 715,039 32%
Total 961,526 3,188,518 30%
Sources: Costar Group and EPS
The Dublin City staff is poised to provide support services to facilitate commercial real estate
development. Dublin never established a Redevelopment Agency and today, while many
California cities grapple with legislative changes associated with the dissolution of California's
Redevelopment Agencies, Dublin's development services continue uninterrupted. In fact, the
City staff has continually improved services based on feedback from local business stakeholders.
There are two areas within Dublin that the Economic Development Strategy envisions increased,
focused City efforts to develop workplace communities for the 215` Century:
• East Dublin - In East Dublin, at the Eastern Dublin Transit Center, Alameda County controls
un-built sites that can accommodate up to 2.2 million square feet of commercial office•space.
The County accepts purchase offers through a competitive bidding process. The Alameda
County Surplus Property Authority oversees the land disposition process, seeking to
maximize revenue to the County's Surplus Property Development Trust Fund (i.e., the
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
"Emerald Fund"). In recent news, publicly-traded retail REIT Regency Centers is negotiating
to acquire a 14-acre site to be developed with a specialty grocery-anchored retail center.
Nearby corporate centers include a number of notable software and professional services '
firms.
• West Dub/in - On the west side of Dublin, in the Downtown Specific Plan Area, a number of
large underdeveloped or underdeveloped parcels offer opportunities for development
proximate to BART. The Downtown Transit District is where the Essex Property Trust real
estate company is developing a new urban infill housing project, with 309-units provided in a
mid-rise format. Other Downtown development projects are moving forward with project
planning and the City is implementing a streetscape improvement and beautification project
on Golden Gate Drive, the gateway to the Downtown Transit District and West Dublin BART
Station.
In considering the potential for future commercial development in these strategic areas, it is
essential to consider the competitive landscape of the real estate market. Currently the primary
competition for major commercial tenants comes from two large-scale business parks in the Tri-
Valley, Bishop Ranch in San Ramon and Hacienda Business Park in Pleasanton.
• Bishop Ranch - Home to the global headquarters of Chevron and major tenants that include
AT&T and Toshiba, Bishop Ranch is a well-known and highly-desirable office cluster. The
marketing material for the business park indicates that "Bishop Ranch is home to 550
thriving companies in more than 30 industries, from Fortune 500 companies...to exciting
small businesses in growing areas like social software and clean tech." In recent months a
number of noteworthy leasing deals with firms expanding in the region (e.g., General Electric
Global Software Center, Five9, and Tiburon) have reduced the quantity of vacant space at
Bishop Ranch to less than five percent, signaling that new development may not be far off.
• Hacienda Business Park - The 875-acre Hacienda Business Park includes over 10 million
square feet of mixed-use space occupied by roughly 475 companies employing approximately
18,000 people. Similar to Bishop Ranch, Hacienda is home to a number of Fortune 500
companies as well as lesser-known, small- and medium-sized firms. Currently about 17
percent vacant, Hacienda has struggled to lease large spaces in recent years, particularly in
the California Corporate Center campus operated by RREEF. With many buildings built
during the 1980s, building formats are dated and, in some cases, offer indivisible blocks of
space. While there has been recent leasing activity from small-space users, Hacienda's
building stock appears to be somewhat out of step with the current market. However, some
large firms are in the market for space to meet expansion and relocation needs, and office
availability at Hacienda could be viewed as "healthy vacancy," available to meet future large-
scale tenant demand.
With Bishop Ranch near full occupancy and available office space Hacienda slightly misaligned
with current market demand, the commercial real estate market may be nearing a phase of new
product development in the Tri-Valley. However, there are challenges associated with new
development that must be considered, primarily related to the financial feasibility of new
construction.
14
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
• Rea/ Estate Development Economics - In the current market, office lease rates do not justify
the cost of new office development. During the last major construction cycle, in the late
1990s and early 2000s, Alameda County Class A full-service office rents topped $3.50 per.
square foot per month. Today, rents are less than $2.50. Local commercial real estate
experts indicate that $3.00 rents are needed to support new office development. As the
availability of competitive office space declines, rents are likely to rise to levels necessary to
support new projects.
Figure 6: Alameda Class A Office Lease Rate Trend
$4.00 '_.___ _ ............... ____. ........._...
5330
•
53.00 f
5250
r
5200 ',._ __. ............._. __—_--_._._ ... ......___.__ ____ ............___
515o ____ ................. __. ............_.. ___. ..
S1D0
•
Soso --
50.00
o- a o- o- 0 o- o- o- 0 0 0 0 a o 0 0 0 o- 0 0 o- 0 $ 0 o- o-
‘' 1 9 1 ' ti 'p Y � 1 A A� 'S P tr9 yY 59 �4 °0 �M1 93 �h 6' M1 �0 °'i °9
d d> a° mac° �°° c9 ,,c9 tio° �� c4 ,$),c° ,� �$ ,cD ,°° ,�o° moo° � � �,o° / 8 ,o'' ,o'` moo'
•
Sources: CoStar Group and EPS
• Infill Development Cost Premiums - Dublin envisions commercial development Downtown, an
area previously developed with automotive, industrial, warehouse, and other low-density
uses. Redevelopment of Downtown parcels may involve demolition, environmental
remediation, unique site constraints (e.g., configuration), parcel assembly, and other
development challenges that create a cost premium over greenfield development and hinders
development feasibility.
• Land Costs - In some cases local land owners are unwilling to sell land at prices supported by
the current market, commonly waiting for market conditions to improve before seeking to
dispose of their assets. Land value expectations must fall in line with current real estate
values in order for developers to purchase land and pursue new projects.
•
•
15
S. STAKEHOLDER CONSIDERATIONS
•
Interviews with stakeholders in Dublin offer valuable insight into the strengths, weaknesses,
opportunities, and threats facing the City today and in the future. Through one-on-one
interviews, focus groups, and public meetings, this study collected thoughts and opinions from
engaged citizens and business representatives. Major considerations for economic development
cited during the interviews include those listed below:
Economic Development Strengths in Dublin
•
• Location at 580/680 - Well-connected by freeways to the rest of the region, including the
South Bay
• BART access - Well-connected by public transportation to Oakland, San Francisco, and other
Bay Area regional centers
• City's strong fiscal condition - Experienced leadership team, recent budget surplus, and no
RDA dissolution process'to burden the City
• Housing value - High-quality new housing, competitively priced relative to most Bay Area
markets
• Retail offerings - Diverse suite of local and national retailers, well-distributed throughout the
City
• High-caliber public school system - Well-regarded Dublin Unified School District offers new
facilities and a growing number of Advanced Placement classes
• Open space and recreation - High-quality local and regional parks, including Fallon Sports
Park, the City's newest park and a premier sports facility
• Public safety - Stable, low-crime community supported by ample police and fire emergency
services
• Small-town feel - Long-time local businesses, farmers market, and City events (e.g., St.
•
Patrick's Day Parade and Festival) foster community character and vibrancy
Economic Development Weaknesses in Dublin
• High development fees - Relatively high cost associated with new real estate development
projects
• City permitting process and cost - Lengthy, uncertain permitting process, particularly
challenging for small businesses pursuing tenant improvement projects
• Limited City experience with infill - City planning and development services have primarily
addressed new projects in undeveloped "greenfield" areas
• Uncertain market depth for attached housing - Local housing developers indicate that current
market forces are pushing developers to pursue traditional single-family housing
16
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
• Limited available office space - There is minimal office vacancy, making it difficult to grow
existing companies and attract new firms to Dublin
• Challenging economics for new office development - Despite low vacancy, rents have not
appreciated to the point where developers are pursuing new office projects
• Difficult environment for new small businesses - Small businesses struggle to navigate City
permitting processes
Economic Development Opportunities in Dublin
• Significant vacant land at Dublin/Pleasanton BART- Undeveloped land at the Eastern Transit
Center is well-suited for significant new office developments
• Large redevelopment sites at West Dublin/Pleasanton BART - Reuse sites near the West
Dublin station offer potential for infill within the City's up-and-coming Downtown
• Business and leisure hospitality needs - The Tri-Valley currently lacks a high-end hotel and
regional conference center, potential future opportunities for centrally-located Dublin
• Paragon outlet visitors - With eight million visits per year projected (40 percent originating
outside the Tri-Valley), the new Livermore retail center is a potential driver of"spinoff"
economic activity in Dublin and the Tri-Valley overall
• Kaiser Permanente - The healthcare giant has "banked" land in East Dublin for a medical
facility that could create spinoff economic activity, possibly including medical services and
retail amenities
• Camp Parks and the County courthouse - New public facilities (DoD and County) in central
Dublin could create new opportunities for economic development
• Surplus land - The City's surplus land holdings may be appropriate for development that
generates public benefits
Economic Development Threats in Dublin
• • Lack of identity within the Tri-Valley - A relatively young city, Dublin has struggled to
establish a clear defining character, distinct from other nearby municipalities
• Competition with neighboring cities - Other cities in the Tri-Valley are also well-positioned for
economic development
• Over-regulation - Policies such as the recently-proposed tobacco sales ordinance could affect
the business climate in Dublin
• Air quality-related development restrictions - Bay Area Air Quality Management District
regulations related to development near freeways could affect development potential
• Technological infrastructure - City preparedness to meet demand for power and
• communications infrastructure from high-technology companies is a concern
•
17
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
• Safety and congestion issues - Along with economic development, programs to manage
traffic and promote public safety should be considered
18
6. STRATEGY RECOMMENDATIONS
This Economic Development Strategy seeks to improve the City of Dublin's competitive position
and maximize the overall potential for employment growth in the City. The Strategy embraces
the current practices of the City and proposes areas where City service enhancements, strategic
partnerships,•and new programs may be effective. The top priorities for economic development
activities in the City include:
•
• .Enhanced Quality of Place for Businesses and Residents
• Small Businesses Support and Growth
• Development of the Eastern Dublin Transit Center
• Development in Downtown Dublin (particularly in the Downtown Transit District)
The strategy offers measures specifically intended to generate benefits related to these City
priorities, as well as to suggest tools that could be used to promote economic development
citywide. The strategy endeavors to address specific challenges in Dublin, particularly issues
affecting the City priorities (e.g., development of strategic areas). Figure 7 summarizes the
priority strategy considerations, specific goals for economic development, and recommended
strategy concepts.
Figure 7: Priorities, Goals, and Strategy
Continued Maintain and enhance ED activities,
Quality of Place development and including marketing and branding to
job growth highlight quality of place factors
Enhance development services,with
Small Business Facilitate business expansion streamlined permitting for routine
projects growth-supporting real estate
improvement projects
Eastern Transit Encourage new development, Increase partnerships with real estate
Center particularly commercial office and developers and landowners to entitle
retail spaces and market sites
•
Explore options to facilitate
Expedite progress toward the development, including financing
Downtown Downtown vision mechanisms, funding sources,•and
revitalization tools(e.g.,Economic
Development Corporation)
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Strategy 1: Continue Efforts to Enhance the Competitiveness of the City and
Maintain a Strong and Diverse Economic Base
The City of Dublin has a'well-established practice of economic development work, including a
variety of programs that support business attraction and retention. The City offers incentive
programs, business training, outreach, and support services. Strategy 1 seeks to maintain the
current economic development program and enhance services, including through more robust
marketing and branding, highly-targeted outreach, and increased regional coordination.
Action 1: Codify Existing Economic Development Practices
The City of Dublin has a significant number of economic development programs in place. With
no additional cost (or risk) to the City, Dublin could commit to administering these programs,
codifying overarching policies in an Economic Development Element of the General Plan.
Particular economic development programs to consider for inclusion in the General Plan are the
following:
• Business Incentive Programs - The City offers a number of incentives that respond to current
economic conditions and serve to attract and retain business activity in Dublin. While
programs should evolve over time to adapt to changing economic challenges, examples of
Dublin's current programs include:
— Sales Tax Reimbursement Program - For businesses that generate more than $10 million
in taxable sales, the City offers a program to help offset site or building improvement
costs.
— Fee Deferral Program - The City offers a program for non-residential development that
allows developers to pay the Traffic Impact Fee before occupancy.
— Sewer Capacity Assistance Program - The City offers financial assistance to businesses
that require new or additional sewer capacity, up to 25 percent of capacity fees.
— Commercial Façade Improvement Grant Program - For commercial businesses located in
the Downtown, the City offers a grant program to offset costs associated with exterior
aesthetic improvements.
• Business Seminars - In partnership with the Dublin Chamber of Commerce and the Alameda
County Small Business Development Center, the City offers business seminars to support
business owners.
• Roundtable Programs - The City hosts roundtable meetings with local business groups,
including the real estate community and small business owners.
• Coordination with Regional Entities - The City is an active participant in regional economic
development activities, including i-GATE, Innovation Tri-Valley, the Tri-Valley Convention and
Visitors Bureau, and the East Bay Economic Development Alliance.
• • Business Recognition Program - The City formally recognizes local businesses for significant
anniversaries and notable contributions to the community.
20
•
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
• Business Visitation Program - The City meets one-on-one with businesses to assist with
retention and expansion and to market other City services.
• Ombudsman Services - The City facilitates permitting and other interactions between the
business community and local government.
Continuation and enhancement of these current programs,is critical to the City's economic
development.
Action 2: Create a Comprehensive Marketing and Branding Plan for the City
While the City has produced a brochure (Dublin - A Great Place to Grow) and City
representatives frequently attend conferences and other events to promote the City as a place
for business, a comprehensive marketing and branding plan and budget should be established.
Dublin's marketing and branding should be continually updated to refresh the City's outward
identity, publicizing the evolution of Dublin's Downtown, Eastern Transit Center, and new
business community members. The marketing and branding plan would establish a distinct
identity for the City and specify appropriate Bay Area media outlets for promotional activities.
Relative to current efforts, more focused marketing is likely to be cost effective. The Strategy
analysis presents a number of industries and economic clusters that may be appropriate targets
for focused marketing efforts.
Action 3: Focus Business Visitation Program on High-Growth Companies
The City should build on the existing Business Visitation program by strategically targeting high-
growth companies (e.g., "Gazelle" companies14). Retaining high-growth companies is a priority,
given the potential they hold for job creation within the City. The visitation program offers a
method for the City to detect local challenges to business growth, an essential first step in
identifying economic development issues, problem solving, and establishing greater economic
stability and expansion.
Action 4: Advance Participation in Regional Efforts
In addition to the specific programs above, Dublin should also maintain current efforts to
leverage City and regional strengths, amenities, and demand drivers. For example, the City
should continue to explore connections to the Livermore Valley Wine Region, enhance local open
space and recreation areas, and coordinate with Camp Parks. In particular, the City should
consider increasing participation with i-GATE (Innovation for Green Advanced Transportation
Excellence, a regional public-private partnership), including exploring the potential to host i-
GATE-affiliated programs in Dublin.
14 Gazelle companies are those with $500,000+ in sales revenue and more than 20 percent sales
growth over the past five years. There are 57 Gazelle companies in Dublin.
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
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Strategy 2: Improve Conditions for Small Businesses
While the City has made considerable strides to enhance its working relationship with businesses
through a number of economic development practices, feedback from the stakeholder interviews
has identified areas for improvement that still remain.
Action 1: Enhance Current Development Services Practices
Interviews with local businesses point to perceived shortcomings in City processes related to
project permitting, particularly tenant improvement projects. For minimal additional cost (or
risk), the City could assess and refine current development service,practices to ensure that the
City provides a full continuum of service (from inquiry to occupancy).
The primary purpose of enhanced Development Services is to provide all permit applicants a
clear roadmap and timeline for interactions with the City. By promoting a streamlined and
transparent process, project applicants will benefit from increased certainty and reduced risk.
The enhanced development services program would endeavor to minimize unnecessary permit
costs for entities doing business in the City of Dublin.
This Action is likely to generate notable benefits for small businesses seeking to update existing
buildings and workspaces in Dublin. In particular, the action could assist project proponents with
the renovation Class B and Class C retail and office spaces, as well as outmoded industrial/flex
spaces. Creating a regulatory environment that supports and facilitates building upgrades,
allowing areas such as Sierra Court to evolve over time, will promote business retention in a
wide variety of sectors, ranging from retail to manufacturing.
Enhanced development services could potentially offer:
• Improved application and permitting process, potentially including an information technology
system (e.g., software to track permit process status) and procedural refinements and
improvements.15
• Streamlined process that assigns an applicant to work with one team, whose members are
involved in the project from beginning to end.
• Front-loaded project review to resolve planning and code-related deficiencies without
impacting the delivery of the project
This program update would require more detailed planning and moderate start-up funding
resources.
•
is EPS understands that the City is currently in the process of converting to online permitting and
review.
•
•
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Strategy 3: Position Development Sites to Meet Current and Future Market
Demand and Provide Necessary Marketing Support
Despite available development sites, Dublin has not enjoyed new office development in about a
decade. While this is generally consistent with countywide trends, it is essential that Dublin be
competitively positioned when office development in the East Bay resumes. To this end, project
planning and entitlements may benefit from updating in some cases and strategic marketing of
specific real estate development opportunities in Dublin should be increased. There is an
opportunity for the City to partner with real estate developers and landowners to assist with
these efforts and to prepare sites for expedited land development to decrease the lead time for
new projects.
City partnerships with developers and landowners could benefit economic development through:
• Increased or earlier capture of real estate development demand
• Improved partnership with Alameda County Surplus Property Authority to maximize
development potential and expedite employment-supporting real estate development
• Repositioning of sites based on upfront real estate feasibility, planning, and design work to
address current market opportunities and improve developer/tenant interest in new
development
A partnership program of this nature would be new in Dublin and would require staff and
consultant effort, with an appropriate budget for the program to be determined.
Action 1: Partner with the Alameda County Surplus Property Authority on Eastern Dublin
Transit Center
The Alameda County Surplus Property Authority (ACSPA) controls land entitled for over two
million square feet at the Eastern Dublin Transit Center, a location that is likely to support a
significant share of future job growth in the City. The City should strengthen its ongoing working
relationship and partner with ACSPA to position the Eastern Dublin Transit Center as a highly-
competitive jobs center for the region. The partnership could include a review of existing land
uses/zoning to ensure consistency with anticipated office needs and job creation. Additionally,
the City and County could evaluate the potential to offer "shovel ready" parcels for expedited
development, allowing these sites to compete more effectively with privately owned and
managed business parks. The City also should consider collaborating with ACSPA on a marketing
action plan for Eastern Dublin Transit Center development opportunities. This plan could be
designed to dovetail with the citywide marketing and branding effort recommended as part of the
Strategy (Strategy 1, Action 2).
Action 2: Support Downtown Specific Plan Area Property Owners'.Business Attraction and
Development Efforts
With the adoption of the Downtown Specific Plan, Dublin created a vision for a vibrant mixed-use
center, with new opportunities for development of job-supporting uses such as office and retail
space. The Downtown Plan strives to create a walkable urban environment that when fully
realized could have a dramatic positive effect on quality of place in Dublin. The City should
pursue landowner and business outreach efforts and partnerships to promote the continued
evolution of Downtown. Outreach efforts would focus on building support for actions that
23
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
progress the downtown vision. Partnership activities could include marketing efforts that
promote investment opportunities Downtown. In particular, the City could work with property
owners to develop and produce brochures, host a website, and offer other collateral materials.
In addition, the City might work with existing businesses to advertise the area as a destination
through branding, advertising, and other approaches (e.g., a published business directory or
retail/dining guide).
•
24
•
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Strategy 4: Expedite Development Progress Downtown and Optimize Conditions
for Entertainment Uses
Stakeholder interviews conducted as part of the Economic Development Strategy process
revealed that local residents and businesses want more progress toward revitalization in the
City's Downtown. As discussed, quality of place and quality of life factors are increasingly critical
to economic development strategy. The Downtown vision offers an opportunity to improve
quality of place and quality of life factors. The Strategy calls for actions to improve citywide
marketing and branding, as well as the need to market real estate development sites. These
actions will benefit Downtown. In addition, the City should explore potential funds, tools, and
programs that empower the City to be more active in development, particularly Downtown. This
recommendation builds on a recent Urban Land Institute Technical Assistance Panel review of the
Downtown Specific Plan that found "more public improvements and public investment are needed
on the front end" and "the City needs to weave together multiple funding sources." 16
Action 1: Explore Potential Funding Sources and Financing Tools to Advance Real Estate
and Economic Development
A primary challenge associated with positioning opportunity areas for new development is
obtaining reliable financial resources for place-making investments, potentially including creation
of public spaces (e.g., parks, plazas, and public art), streetscape and gateway improvements,
infrastructure, public parking, or other strategic investments (e.g., subsidies for catalytic
projects). While the City has had success in this area (e.g., federal grant funds for Golden Gate
Drive improvements and a Community Benefit program Downtown), the City should continue to
seek additional sources of funds and consider available financing mechanisms.
Figure 8 presents a lengthy, inclusive list of financing and funding mechanisms that the City of
Dublin might use to advance City investments that support economic development goals. While
Figure 8 strives to be comprehensive, there are likely to be other tools that the City should
consider as well. This list should be viewed as a starting point for evaluation of financing and
funding mechanisms. The City should continue to build on this work, identifying specific tools
that best fit City needs.
16 Downtown Dublin, CA Technical Assistance Panel, July 2011
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Figure 8: Financing and Funding Tool kit for Economic Development
•
Allows cities to create assessment districts and raise
Mete-Roes Community funds through special property taxes. Provides Requires a 213x'approval in a resident(or land
Facilities District(CFD) financing for public capital investment and operating owner)vote to allow CFD special taxes to be
improvements within the district through tat-exempt collected.
bonds sponsored by a public agency_
Provides a structure for business owners to pay
Business Improvement special assessments (andlor other funds)earmarked City adopts a resolution to form a BID and
District(BID) for public improvements and services within a establishes the BID through an ordinance,given
business district,such as street cleaning,security. property owner support.
and capital improvements.
General Fund A dedication of General Fund property or sales tax General Fund contributions are part of City's
Contributions/ revenue, tow interest loans.one-time contributions, annual budget appropriations process and must
be approved by the City Council(does not
Dedications and other discretionary financial contributions. require voter approval).
Municipal Lease An agreement to lease a public facility,with shares in Lease payments would come from the City's
Financing the flow of lease revenue sold as a means of annual budget and must be approved by the City
generating upfront revenue for the facility. Council(does nal require voter approal).
Voter-approved Tax Voters can approve property or sales tax increases Requires 2f3r°svoter approval for special tax and
Measures for a specific purpose or General Obligation. majority approval for general tax.
Disposition of Public City may dispose of its property assets (through sale
Requires city asset appropriate for disposition
Land/Assets or ground lease) - and City Council approval, subject to a number
of requirements.
Development Impact One-time fees charged to now development to cover Approved by the City Council vote (does not
Fees "fair share'infrastructure cost needed to require property owner approval).
growth.
accommodate growth.
There are a number of other mechanisms such as These can he negotiated on a case-by-case
Other Fees&Exactions basis(e.g.,Development Agreement)or
project-sp and exactions that could be
(including"in-lieu"fees) used as funding ecific fees mechanisms. approved generally for areas within the Cily,
subject to a number of requirements.
Figure 8 intentionally excludes Infrastructure Financing Districts (IFDs), Landscape and Lighting
Districts (LL&Ds), and Maintenance Assessment Districts (MADs), as these tools are largely -
impractical in their current form. IFDs have been available for years but are rarely used;
forming an IFD is burdensome. LL&Ds and MADs have been used more extensively in California
over the years but recent legislation has hampered the viability of these tools. In particular,
recently passed Proposition 26 requirements for "special benefits" within an assessment district
have created a litigious environment for these funding tools.l7 Future legislative efforts may
result in refinements that make these tools more valuable to California cities, including potential
adjustments to state requirements for IFDs. New tools (e.g., a tax increment financing provision
for infill/smart growth projects) may also become available in the future.
17 The City of Dublin has relied on LL&D and similar tools to fund maintenance costs associated with
specific residential projects. The use of LL&Ds in single-owner applications remains feasible but has
limited application to economic development work.
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Grant funds from regional, state, and federal sources will also aid the City in making investments
that benefit economic development. As mentioned, the City is already benefitting from federal
• funds for a streetscape program Downtown. Specific grant programs come and go, and the
specific requirements for any particular grant are highly variable. However, there are a number
of regional, state, and federal entities and programs that commonly make grant funds available
for municipal projects, including but not limited to:
• Metropolitan Transportation Commission
• California Department of Housing and Community Development
• US Department of Transportation
• US Department of Housing and Urban Development
• US Environmental Protection Agency (brownfield grants)
Lastly, in the wake of the dissolution of redevelopment, California legislators are pursuing new
solutions to provide local governments with tools that for financing infrastructure to generate
economic investment. It is prudent for the City to remain actively engaged in these legislative
discussions and advocate, when needed, to promote positive change at the State level.
Action 2: Explore the Creation of an Economic Development Corporation
To maximize the City's potential to promote and guide private sector development activities
toward creating new, unique, and character-rich places in Dublin, the Economic Development
Strategy recommends the City explore the benefits and costs associated with formation of a local
Economic Development Corporation (EDC). EDCs are used throughout California and they vary
in size and scope, ranging from thinly-staffed regional economic development bodies that
provide marketing and site selection support to larger corporations capable of assembling,
repositioning, developing, and managing real estate projects that support economic
development.
At the heart of the proposal that the City of Dublin explore creation of an EDC is the City's desire
to expedite Downtown development activities and attract businesses that create a rich urban
fabric, support street-level vibrancy, and establish a unique urban character and quality of place.
Drawing entertainment uses to Downtown, a community priority, hinges on the repositioning of
the area, from low-density commercial uses to a high-density mix of uses.
While an EDC program could be expensive and risky relative to other strategies (and requires
further study and evaluation), an EDC could provide the City with a tool for active participation in
urban enhancement through real estate development. In addition, EDCs often provide access to
a wider range of capital investment funds, ranging from federal grant sources to corporate
donations. To be effective, the EDC would require dedicated operating funds and staffing, as
well as investment capital. A concern is that EDC real estate development projects could expose
the City to investment risk.
Concept evaluation and initial implementation of an EDC program could occur over two years. In
the first year, the City could explore the concept, weigh costs versus benefits, and make a
go/no-go decision regarding the program. If a go, the medium-term goal (year 2) could be to
• establish a business plan and create a new legal entity, with operations potentially beginning in
year 3.
•
•
27
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Summary of Strategy Recommendations
Figure 9 presents a summary of the primary Economic Development Strategy elements. These
recommendations offer potential short- to mid-term actions across a spectrum of cost and risk to
the City. Some components of the Strategy are already underway, including the codification of
current practices in an Economic Development Element of the General Plan. Other components,
particularly the recommendation that the City should evaluate the feasibility of an Economic
Development Corporation, requires Council adoption and significant additional work.
Figure 9: Summary of Economic.Development Strategy
•
1. Codify Existing Economic
Continue Efforts to Development Practices
Enhance the 2 Create a Comprehensive Marketing Completed Economic Development
Competitiveness of and Branding Plan for the City Element; Updated Marketing and
the City and
Maintain a Strong 3. Focus Business Visitation Program Branding;Targeted Visitation Program;
and Diverse on High-Growth Companies and Participation in Regional Initiatives
Economic Base 4. Advance Participation in Regional
Efforts
Improve Conditions Enhance Current Development
for Small Services Practices improved program up and running
Businesses
•
Position
Development Sites t Partner with the Alameda County
to Meet Current and Surplus Property Authority Partnershi
Future Market ps,updated eniilienients, and
2. Support Downtown Specific Plan improved site marketing
Demand and pr P
Provide Necessary Area Property Owners
Marketing Support
Expedite
Development 1. Explore Potential Funding Sources
Progress and Financing Tools to Advance Real Funding for strategic projects,as
Downtown and Estate and Economic Development needed',
Optimize . EDC Concept exploration, Go+No-go,
2. Explore the Creation of en Economic business plan.and incorporation
Conditions for Development Corporation
Entertainment Uses
•
28
TECHNICAL APPENDIX
ECONOMY 3
SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND TRENDS 1
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE TRENDS 35
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE 38
ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR DUBLIN 40
TECHNICAL APPENDIX
This Technical Appendix provides detailed data and supporting information that underlies the City
of Dublin Economic Development Strategy.
Socioeconomic Conditions and Trends
Dublin accounts for roughly 15 percent of Tri-Valley's population and working residents, 14
percent of its housing units, 13 percent of business establishments, and 11 percent of
employees. The City supports nearly 21 percent of the Tri-Valley's total taxable sales,
demonstrating its importance as a shopping destination that draws consumers from throughout
surrounding region. Within the East Bay, Dublin's total taxable sales make up over three percent
of the total in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties combined, far more than any other Tri-Valley
city.
Figure 10: City of Dublin Regional Context
122% -
20.5%
20% -
i
18% -
16% L ,.:
14.9% 15.1% x_
:_t
14% j - 14.0% i - `I
I 133%
I S
'I
12°%o }�r-d i s l } I 11.4% 1
, 0 ,'1 p k. u..1 1 ,
I I
10%
8/ I
9/ - ` i I
■
2/ I 1.8% 1.5°(0 i 1.8% 11.7°l0 1.9% ..T,
HI
°' '3 R
Population Housing Units Workers Employment Establishments Taxable Sales
ElTri-Valley El East Bay
Sources: CA Department of Finance(2011); U.S. Census Bureau, 2005-2009 American Community Survey; ESRI
Business Analyst Online (2010); National Employment Time Series (NETS) database; hloody's.com; CA Board of
Equalization (2010; and the Center for Strategic Economic Research (May 2012)
A-1
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
In 2011, Dublin had a population of almost 47,000 people, including group quarters which
accounted for about 13 percent of the population.18 Between 2001 and 2011, annual (year-
over-year) population growth fluctuated between roughly one percent and seven percent, with
the most notable spike in growth occurring between 2007 and 2008. Overall, population growth
during the 10-year period totaled approximately 14,300, a 44 percent increase over 2001. Of
the Tri-Valley cities, only San Ramon grew more rapidly from 2001 to 2011.
•
Figure 11; City of Dublin Population
50,000 - - 8%
46,743
44,321 45,104 45,681 }
45,000 - (((t 1 -7
41,309 i t 7%
39,868 [--9 7 ¢
40,000 38,147 [ F # IL/41
36 991 FS ! L I . I - 6%FDA. 35,229 a g 1• ¢ .4 1 4 [
35,000 " 33,514 @ l C. k�.4 a F <{ ` ,�;i
32,437 c _I t (
a ,.. I* I ▪ E 3 s s - 5%
3 I : L .i
30,000 I .d `
54146 0°-3 a i• 1 t _
25,000 f{ ;�� ;;� 4,5% ,. _: - 4%
k
3:6° ,
20,000 33°/ 33 y �.' to,4 F Fr }.. 3 i[ i. � - 3%
15,000 I r E fM:�
x 2%
Al i T 2 3°It
10,000 I } ;, } �"� _;; .1-8%1z E 0
1t11 , t3 , 1%
5,000 - } 4.1 .e }t °{ ( ' 4 t l
173',
9 ., ? _ : � r- = i, ) r I E .1# . � 1 1 _
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
4 Total Population —Annual Population Growth
Data Source: CA Department of Finance and the Center for Strategic Economic Research (May 2012)
Note: Chart includes group quarters, which accounts for roughly 13 percent of Dublin's 2011 population.
18 A group quarters is a place where people live or stay in a group living arrangement, including
college residence halls, residential treatment centers, skilled nursing facilities, group homes, military
barracks, correctional facilities, and workers' dormitories. In Dublin, the group quarters population is
primarily attributable to the Army's Parks Reserve Forces Training Area.
A-2
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Figure 12: Population Growth Comparison (2001-2011)
I San Ramon
1
I
Dublin
Livermore 7265 =', -- 9.8%
( I
Pleasanton 15,632_ 8.7%
( Danville -0.6% II [-2761
( 2011 7ri-Valley Population
Dublin=46,743
7ri-Valley 144,718,74r `° 20.6%
Danville.=42215
Livermore =51,687
California 3.3141 . a 9.5%
I - Pleasanton= 70.643
East Bay 157;860 6.5% San Ramon=73,109
-10% 0% ..�� 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Sources: CA Department of Finance and the Center for Strategic Economic Research (May2012)
A-3
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Dublin is the most youthful city in the Tri-Valley. The median age of residents in the City is
about 35 years old, consistent with California overall, but much lower than other Tri-Valley cities,
where median age ranges from about 37 to 45 years old. Dublin's younger demographic is
reflective of the City's attractiveness to family households, with high-quality schools, public
parks, housing affordability, and a variety of other quality of life factors contributing to this
effect.
Figure 13: Median Age Comparison
,: .35.3
San Ramon 1i _ - r ..� w 38.8
Livermore v;77-77C , a=4 L..] 38.2
.-.__....,. .« a-amr
Pleasanton -;,-e+ ° t >_ „ .. .,.4--iA,,rieliwn,3A 40.5
Danville ., „. s _.�. .:f 44.5
,.,r..
California l �r ." -� IA:.:,:-.: 5 -; ;: .1352
East Bay 37.3
In-Valley '.e t 41 7 -{ 38.5 !i
1_ 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 J
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2010 Census) and the Center For Strategic Economic Research (May 2012)
A-4
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
From 2000 to 2010, Dublin saw significant shifts in its racial makeup, particularly in its White and
Asian populations.i9 Just over half of Dublin's 2010 population is classified as White, a decrease
from nearly 70 percent in 2000. This demographic shift is primarily attributable to an increase in
the Asian population, which grew as a share of total population by about 16 percentage points
over the 10-year time period. With the exception of San Ramon, no other Tri-Valley city saw
such a significant demographic shift.
Figure 14: Population by Race Comparison
Race Category Dublin 1 Danville Livermore Pleasanton San Ramon1 Tri-Valley East Bay California
2010
1
Population Reporting One Race 94.0%1 96.0% 94.6% 95.2% 94.7%1 94.9% 94.0% 95.1%
wide 61.3°70 83.1% 74.6% 67.0% 53.6% 65.7% 49.4% 57.6%
Black or African American 9.4% 0.9% 2.1% 17% 2.8%1 3.1% 11.2% 6.2%
American Indian or Alaska Native 0.5%I 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3%1 0.4% 0.6% 1.0%
Asian 26.8%1 10.5% 6.4% 23.2% 35.6%1 21.1% 21.3% 13.0%
Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander 0.6%t 0,2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%1 0.3% 0.7% 0.4%
Some Other Race 5,3%1 1.2% 8.6% 2.8% 2.1%1 4.3% 10.8% 17.0%
Population Reporting Two or More Races 6.0%1 4.0% 5.4% 48% 5.3%1 5.1% 6.0% 4.9%
1 1
Total Hispanic Population 14.5%1 6.8% 20.9% 10.3% 8.7%1 12.8% 23.3% 37.6%
1 1
2000 1 I
Population Reporting One Race 96.1%1 97,5% 95.5% 96.3% 96.4%1 96.3% 94.6% 95.3%
VVhite 69.4%1 86.3% 81.9% 80.4% 76.8%I 79.9% 55.4% 59.5%
Black or African American 10,1%1 0,9% . 1,6% 1.4% 1.9%1 2.5% 12.7% 6.7%
Arerican Indian or Alaska Native 0.7%1 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4%I 0.4% 0.6% 1,0%
Asian 10.3%1 9.0% 5,8% 11.7% 14.9%1 10.0% 16.7% 10.9%
Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander 0.3%1 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2%I 0.2% 0.5% 0.3%
Some Other Race 5.3% 0.9% 5.3% 2.3% 2.2% 3.3% 8.6% 16.8%
Population Reporting Two or More Races 3.9%1 2.5% 4.5% 3.7% 3,6%1 3.7% 5.4% 4.7%
1 1
Total Hispanic Population 115%1 4.7% 14.4% 7.9% 7.2%1 9.8% 18.5% 32.4%
1 I
2000-2010 Shift 1 1
Population Reporting One Race -2.1%1 -1.4% -0.8% -1.1% -1.8%1 -1.4% -0.6% -0.1%
Wire -18.0%1 -3.2% -7.3% -13.5% -23.3%1 -14.2% -6.0% -2.0%
Black or African American -0.6%I 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.9%1 0.6% -1.5% -0.5%
American Indian or Alaska Native -0,2%1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1%1 -0,1% 0.0% 0.0%
Asian 16.4%1 1.5% 2,6% 11.5°/ 20.7%1 11.1% 4.6% 2.1%
Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander 0.3%1 0.0% 0.1% 0,1% 0.0%1 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Some Other Race 0.1%1 0.3% 3.3% 0.5% 0.0%1 1.0% 2.2% 0.2%
Population Reporting Tw o or More Races 2.1%1 1.4% 0.8% 1.1% 1.8%1 1.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Total Hispanic Population 0.9% 2.2% 6.5% 2.5% 1.4% 3.1% 4.8% 5.2%
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2000 and 2010 Census) and the Center for Strategic Economic Research
(May 2012)
19 Asian is defined by the US Census Bureau as a person having origins in any of the original peoples
of the Far East, Southeast Asia, or the Indian subcontinent.
A-5
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
The highly-educated workforce is a major factor in attracting and retaining businesses in the Tri-
Valley. In fact, when General Electric selected the Tri-Valley for the location of its new
innovation center, the company cited the well-trained workforce as a primary factor in the
decision. A little over half of Dublin's residents have a college degree (associate's degree or
above), a significant increase from 2000 when about 41 percent of Dublin residents had a college
degree. More than one in ten Dublin residents holds an advance degree (MA/MS, Professional,
and/or Doctoral degrees).
Figure 15: City of Dublin Educational Attainment
•
Professional Degree, Doctoral Degree,1.6%
1.91
f No HS Diploma,9.0%
MA/MS Degree,102/ :\
xtt PEE!� 44T •
_ HS Diploma,21.0%
�_� yx'st 9.4K 1CY » ,•
BA/BS Degree,29.4% i r x
n 0 44 a 'hC'..y�
4! :yite 3. ; .'.1:-:- s. k
Some College,18.9%
W
AAIAS Degree,8.9%
. Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005-2009 American Community Survey and the Center for Strategic Economic
Research (May 2012)
•
A-6
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Educational attainment in Dublin is stronger than in the East Bay and California overall. Within
the Tri-Valley, Dublin residents' attainment of a college education is greater than in Livermore,
but lower than the other neighboring cities and the Tri-Valley overall. However, with population
growth over the last decade, educational attainment in Dublin has increased dramatically and
this trend is likely to continue as the City's population expands in the future.
Figure 16: College Degree Educational Attainment Comparison
80%
70.3%
70°(
..:s. 65.4% 64.4%
60°(° 58 0°(0
kia
51.1%
It50°/ a '=%" 46.5°
01-1a14 "Ir 45.5%
y .` 'Ho-
➢ I i
40% I j x 7` 374%
i m
30/ y
I i 1 l I 1} j'
s I I
20/ ,.
f !I = i l 1 10 I [ r
r' t_r.T.'s,
0% a , . ,
Danville San Ramon Pleasanton DUBLIN Livermore Tri-Valley East Bay California
®AA/AS Degree g BA/BS Degree DMA/MS Degree m Professional Degree ❑Doctoral Degree
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005-2009 American Community Survey and the Center for Strategic Economic
Research (May 2012)
A-7
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Dublin residents commonly report a BA/BS Degree as their highest level of educational
attainment (about 29 percent), which is higher than the East Bay and California overall but
slightly below the Tri-Valley overall. Over the past several years, Dublin has seen large shifts in
BA/BS Degree and MA/MS-Professional-Doctorate Degree attainment (about six and five
percentage points, respectively), as well as in the proportion of population with an college 'degree
(AA/AS Degree or greater) which increased about 10 percentage points-a much larger shifts
toward higher education than in other Tri-Valley cities.
Figure 17: Educational Attainment Trend Comparison
Educational Attainment Level Dublin I Danville Livermore Pleasanton San Ramon I Tri-Valley East Bay California .
I 1
2005-2009 Average I I •
No HS DiplorrB 9.0%1 17% 8.7% 4.3% 3.1%I 5.7% 13.4% 19.5%
HS Diploma 21.0%1 8.8% 20.9% 14.3% 12.2%I 16.0% 20.4% 21.9%
Some College 18.9%l 19.2% 25.0°/ 16.9% 19.2% 20.3% 19.7% 21.2%
AA/AS Degree 8.0%1 6.7% 9.3% 8.8% 8.2°!°1 8.4% 7.5% 7.6%
BA/BS Degree 29.4%1 40.6% 23.5% 34.7% 36.1%1 31.8% 24.0% 19.1%
MA/MS-Prof.-Doc t.Degree 13.7%1 23.0% 12.7% 21.0% 21.1%I 17.8% 14.9% 10.7%
1 1
College Degree 51.1%I 70.3% 45.5% 64.4% 65.4%I 58.0% 46.5°! 37.4%
1
2000 I I
No HS Diploma 13.7%l 3.4% 10.4% 5.8% 3.5%I 7.2% 15.8% 23.2%
HS Diploma 20.7%I 11.2% 20.0% 14.7% 11.8%1 15.8% 19.4% 20.1%
Some College 25.0%1 19.0% 29.1% 23.5% 23.8%1 24.6% 22.7% 22.9%
AA/AS Degree 7.7%I 7.0% 8.9% 8.7% 8.2%1 8.3% 7.1% 7.1%
BA/BS Degree 23.8%1 38.4% 20.1% 31.5% 35.9%i 29.3% 21.9% 17.1%
MAIMS-Prof.-Doti.Degree 9.1%I 21.1% 11.5% 15.8% 16.8%1 14.8% 13.1% 9.5%
1
College Degree 40.6%1 66.4% 40.5% 56.0% 60.9% 52.4% 42.1% 33.8%
1 1
Shift I
No HS Diploma -42%I -1.7% -1.8% -1.4% -0.4%1 -1.6% -2.5% -3.7%
HS Diploma 0.4%I -2.4% 0.9% -0.4% 0.4%1 0.2% 1.1% 1.7%
Some College -6.1%1 0.2% -4.1% -6.6% -4.5%I -4.3% -3.0% -1.7%
AA/AS Degree 0.2%1 -0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%1 0.1% 0.4% 0.5%
BA/ES Degree 5.6%I 2.2% 3.5% 3.2% 0.2%I 2.5% 2.2% 2.0%
• MA/MS-Prof.-Duct.Degree 4.6%I 1.9% 1.2% 5.2% 4.3%1 3.0% 1.9% 1.1%
College Degree 10.4%1 3.9% 5.0% 8.4% 4.5°0i 5.6% 4.4% 3.6%
I I
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005-2009 American Community Survey and 2000 Census and the Center for
Strategic Economic Research (Play 2012)
•
A-8
City of Dub lin Eco ic Dev ment Stra
Draft Summary Rep ort 10/23/12
Dublin residents' median house hold and per ca income levels are considerably Awry n in
the East Bay and California ove 9E Median household incomein Dublin is similar to thea-
wlW as a whole, but per capital inco is lower, likely due to larger househ+ sizes.
Figure 18: Income Level Comparison .. .
o
m - i El C . .cic
! - _
__ . 1 Q . 0
q =
L.:1 / y (
_a c i / q
`
1 WI
4 ! it- / § _
A„ \ \ R It rG ~ \
, \ ° A
L ~ ± \ ® _ = d
\ 2 \ » \ z Q� � ,
mm \ 9 - ® E z
2 1 :
l d I � i ] / ® \ \
.
q I « ,
% %
\ / / \ (
mm , .
( , 6 \] \ j /
w
/ ! � w
� !
m
. . r :
2 ' : � w -.A AA
, _
__ +�_ .__ Dublin Livermore East Bay California
,Median Household nw Capita .
- - -----!
Data Source: az Census Bureau, 2005-2009 American Comm y Survey and the Center for Strategic mnomic
Research (May zq
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
•
Dublin has exhibited strong growth in the median household income relative to other Tri-Valley
cities, with the strongest growth (nearly 42 percent) in the Tri-Valley over the past several
years. Increasing household incomes are largely attributable to the household growth resulting
from new residential real estate development in the City.
•
•
Overall, the Tri-Valley is ektremely affluent. Around half of the households in the Tri-Valley are
in the $100,000+ income category. By comparison, in the East Bay and California only about 35
• percent and 27 percent of households, respectively, earn this level of income. While some cities
in the Tri-Valley have a notable concentration of very wealthy households (e.g., Danville, where
nearly 27 percent of households have income in excess of $200,000 per year), Dublin
households are most concentrated in the $100,000 to $150,000 income bracket.
Figure 19: Household Income Distribution Comparison
Household Income Level Dublin 1 Danville Livermore Pleasanton San Ramon 'Tri-Valley East Bay California
I
2005-2009 Average I
Less than 515.000 3.8% 3.2% 5.4% 3.9% 3.6%1 i 9.3% 10.5%
$15,000 to$34,999 7.2%1 7.2% 10.6% 7.3% 5.3%; 7.9% 14.9% 18.7%
$35,000 to$49,999 5.4%1 6.3% 8.2% 6.1% 5.7%1 6.6% 10.8% 12.8%
$50,000 to$74,999 12.7%1 9.5% 14.3% 13.2% 11.7%( 12.6% 16.4% 17.8%
$75,000 to$99,999 14.5%1 9.5% 14.1% 11.9% 12.8% 12.7% 13.2% 12.8%
$100,000 to$149,999 28.6%1 24.7% 21.8% 24.6% 26.0% 24.6% 18.0% 14.9%
$150,000 to$199,999 14.4%1 12.7% 14.5% 14.4% 15.4% 14.4% 8.5% 6.2%
$200,000 or more 13.3%1 26.8% 11.1% 18.6% 19.6% 17.1% 8.9% 6.3%
1
Median 8108,7111 $128.810 $94,530 $113,582 $119,297 $109,717 $72,255 $60,392
1
2000 I 1
Less than$15,000 2.9%1 2.6% 5.4% 3.9% 2.9%11 3.8% 10.9% 14.0%
$15,000 to$34,999 11.1%i 6.7% 12.2% 8.4% 6.3%11 9.1% 17.4% 22.9%
$35,000 to$49,999 10.7%1 7.1% 10.7% 9.2% 8.9%1 9.4% 13.7% 15.2%
$50,000 to$74,999 23.6%1 11.4% 21.4% 18.0% 16.1%C 18.1% 19.9% 19.1%
$75,000 to$99,999 19.2%I 12.9% 19.9% 16.2% 18.2%1 17.4% 14.1% 11.5%
$100,000 to$149,999 21.6% 26.3% 19.1% 23.4% 25.6%1. 22.9% 14.2% 10.4%
$150,000 to$199,999 7.6°I°1 14.4% 6.7% 10.2% 12.7%1 10.1% 5.1% 3.3%
$200 000 or more 3.3°/1 18.6% 4.6% 10.7% 9.3%1 9.2% 4.7% 3.6%
1 1
Median 676,6031 $114,064 $75,250 $89,481 $95,7521 $86,807 $59,415 $47,622
. 1
Shift I Growth 1 1
Less than$15,000 1.0°!°1 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%1 0.3% -1.6% -3.6%
$15,000 to$34,999 -3.9%1 0.5% -1.6% -1.0% -1.0%1 -1.2% -2.5% -4.2%
•
$35,000 to$49,999 -5.3%1 -0.7% -2.5% -3.1% -3,2%i -2.8% -2.8% -2.4%
$50.000 to$74,999 -10.9%1 -1.8% -7.1% -4.8% -4.4%1 -5.5% -3.5% -1.3%
$75,000 to$99,999 -4.7°101 -3.5% -5.8% -4.3% -5.4% -4.7% -0.9% 1.3%
$100,000 to$149,999 7.1%1 -1.5% 2.7% 1.2% 0.3%1 1.8% 3.8% 4.6%
$150,000 to$199,999 6.8%1 -1.8% 7.8% 4.2% 2.7% 4.3% 3.4% 2.8%
$200,000 or more 10.0%1 8.2% 6.5% 7.9% 10.3% 7.9% 4.2% 2.7%
•
Median 41.9%1 12.9% 25.6% 26.9% 24.6% 26.4% 21.6% 26.8%
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005-2009 American Community Survey and 2000 Census and the Center for
Strategic Economic Research (May 2012)
•
A-10
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Large proportions of Dublin residents are employed within Management; Sales & Related; and
. Office & Administrative Support occupational categories. These occupations account for nearly
46 percent of total resident employment. These are also top occupations among Tri-Valley
residents. It is notable that over half of Dublin's employed residents are employed in
occupational categories which require a high degree of training, a greater share than in the East
Bay and California.
Figure 20: Resident Employment by Occupation Comparison
Major Occupational Category Dublin 1 Danville Livermore Pleasanton San Ramon I Tri-valley East Bay California j Training Level
I
Management 17.4%1 24.1% 14.8% 19.1% 19.2%1 18.3% 11.7% 100%i High
Sales&Related 15.4%1 18.1% 11.8% 132% 13.1%1 13.8% 113% 11.6% Low
Office&Administrative Support 12.9%1 9,1% 12.4% 10.5% 11.3%1 11.4% 13.7% 13.9%1 Low
Computer&Mathematical 8.2% 3,5% 4.4% 7.5% 8.5%1 6.4% 4.7% 2.7% High
Business&Financial Operations 7.3%1 85% 4.9% 8.3% 8.6%I 7.2% 5.8% 47% High
Education,Training,&Library 5.0%1 5.8% 58% 5.8% 4.9%1 5.5% 57% 5.5%I High
Healthcare Practitioners&Technical 4.4%1 5.5% 3.2% 4.9% 5.0%1 4.4% 4.4; 4.3%1 High
Architecture&Engineering 4.0%1 4.3% 4.0% 4.9% 4.8%1 4.4% 3.0% 2.3%1 High .
Construction&Extraction 3.4%1 1.5% 5.6% 2.7% 21%t 34% 55°,4 58%1 1 Medium
Installation,Maintenance,&Repair 3.0%1 13% 3.2% 1.9% 2.3%I 2.4% 2.8% 31%) Medium
Personal Core&Service 3.D%1 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 27% 3.2% 37% 3.9% Low
Transportation S.Material Moving 2.7%1 1.4% 3.8% 3.0% 2.4%I 28% 4.7% 5.6%i Low
Food Reparation&Serving-Related 2.3%1 2.2% 4 2% 2.8% 2,9%I 3,1% 4.1% 5.0%1 Low
Production 2.3%1 13% 4.2% 1.8% 21%I 26% 4.3% 56%+ Low
Life,Physical,&Social Science 1.9%1 2.6% 3.0% 2.2% 16%1 2.3% 1.8% 11%I High
Arts,Design,Entertainment,Sports,&Media 1.7%1 1.9% 2.3% 2.5% 2.1%1 2.2% 2.4% 26%1 High
Protective Service 1.7%I 1.4% 2.3% 1.9% 2.1%1 2.0% 18% 2.1%1 Medium
Building&Grounds Cleaning&Maintenance 1.1%I 0.2% 3.4% 1.2% 0.4%1 1.5% 31% 1.3%� Low
Community&Social Services 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% 1.3%1 0.9% 5
% 1.5% 1 %I High
Healthcare Support 0.8%1 0.3% 1.4% 1.0% 0.7%1 0.9% 1.8% 18%Ii Low
Legal 0.7%1 2.4% 0.9% 0.8% 1.8%1 1.2% 1.5% 73%? High
Farming,Fishing,&Forestry 0.0%I 0.0% 0 0% (12% 0.0%, 0.1% 0.2% 1.4%Ii Low
I
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2005-2009 American Community Survey) and the Center for Strategic
Economic Research (May 2012)
Note: High training level = four-year degree or above plus work experience; medium = considerable on-the-job
training, vocational education, or a two-year degree; low = some on-the-job training and high school-level
education. Based on "O"Net"job zones.
A-11
•
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
. Tri-Valley Residents are commonly employed in.Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services;
Manufacturing; and Retail Trade. In Dublin, nearly 15 percent of employed residents work in the
Retail Trade sector, a greater proportion than other Tri-Valley cities. In other Tri-Valley cities,
the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services sector accounts for the greatest proportion of
resident jobs. Manufacturing is the second-largest sector for Tri-Valley residents; it is the third-
largest employer of Dublin residents. In the East Bay and California, Health Care & Social
Assistance is a more significant resident employer, with less concentration in Professional,
Scientific, and Technical Services and Manufacturing than the Tri-Valley.
•
Figure 21: Resident Employment by Industry Comparison -
Major Industry Sector Dublin I Danville Livermore Pleasanton San Ramon j Tri-valley East Bay California
1 1
Retail Trade 14,6%1 9.0% 11.5% 9.5% 10.0%1 10.9% 10.7% 11.0%
Rot.SM.,&Technical Svcs. 13.0%1 14.3% 12.8% 15.3% 14.4%1 13.9% 10.5% 74%
Manufacturing 10.8%I 11.1% 10.2% 14.8% 13.1°% 12.0% 9.6% 10.5%
Health Care&Social Assistance 6.2%I 9.8% 9.0% 10.1% 10.6%1 1 9.5% 12.0% 11.1%
Educational Svcs. 6.8%I 8.2% 8.1% 8.2% 6.8%1 7.7% 8.7% 8.4%
Finance&Insurance 6.2%1 9.0% 4.7% 5.9% 8.5% 6.5% 58% . 4.6%
Construction 5.8%1 6.2% 9.5% 4.9% 5.3% 6.6% 7.3% 7.4%
Itorrration 5.2%1 4.1% 3.0% 5.0% 5.4% 4.4% 3.2% 3.0%
Other Svcs. 4.7/1 2.5% 3.9% 27% 3.2%1 3.4% 4.8% 5.2%
Wholesale Trade 4,3%1 4.5% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1%� 4.2% 3.3% 3.5%
Accent&Food Svcs. 3.9% 3.3% 5.5% 4.0% 3.4%1 4.2 % 54% 6.6%
Adnin.&Wgste Svcs. 3.6%1 2.0% 4.0% 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 4.4% 4.6%
Rlblic Administration 3.3%I 3.8% 4.4% 2.6% 3.4%1 3.9% 4.5%
Transportation&Warehousing 2.9%1 3.2% 3.2% 3.6% 2.7%1 3.2% 4.5% 4.0%
Real late&Rental&Leasing 2.6%1 6.0% 2.2% 2.7% 3.1%1 3.1% 2.6% 26%
Arts,Ent..&Recreation 2.6%1 76% 2.8% 2,3% 1.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.5%
Utilities 1,3%1 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7%
tvtgni.of Ccnpanies 0.2%1 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Agriculture,Forestry.Fishing,&Hunting 0.1%1 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%1 0.1% 0.3% 1.9%
Natural Resources&Mning 0,1%1 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%i 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
1
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2005-2009 American Community Survey) and the Center for Strategic ,
Economic Research (May 2012)
•
A-12
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
. Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
With an unemployment rate at 6.2 percent in 2010, the Tri-Valley has fared better than the East
Bay and California overall during the recent recession and economic recovery. With an
unemployment rate of 6.9 percent, Dublin has a relatively high unemployment rate compared
with other Tri-Valley Cities, but the figure is still significantly lower than the East Bay and
California overall.
Figure 22: Unemployment Rate Comparison
14%
S.'
v
N
12% -
r- 1 N
OA FA
r
10% a1
g
F3
• 8% a ao G
IC ae.
O.
EA w
e j N
W e (O
tO i4 r 4-1 6% u v
F
I "1 f s e 1 o 6.�e I v 1 LE 14/ S l� j n I■
}
i "j N m m q
2% i i I v P i 1 I _
1 . 1 i 1 1,i f
0%
Livermore Dublin Danville Pleasanton San Ramon California East Bay Tri-valley
02010 02005 02000
Data Source: CA Employment Development Department and the Center for Strategic Economic Research
(May 2012)
A-13
•
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Dublin possesses a good balance of jobs and housing, with a jobs-household ratio of 1.4, which
is close to the commonly-accepted ideal of 1.5. However, nearly 91 percent of city residents
commute to work outside the community. The average commute time for Dublin workers is
about 29 minutes, which is greater than California's average of 27 minutes. Many Dublin
residents out-commute to other communities in the Bay Area, most notably Pleasanton, San
Jose, Oakland, San Francisco, and San Ramon.
Figure 23: Tri-Valley Commute Patterns
Factor Dublin Danville Livermore Pleasanton San Ramon
Jobs-Household Ratio 1.4 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.0
Average Commute Tme 29.0 29.4 28.5 28.3 30.8 .
Resident Worker Outflow 90.9% 91.0% 80.0% 81.4% 88.1%
Worker Inflow-Outflow Ratio 105.2% 58.2% 84.3% 187.8% 150.7%
Data Sources: National Establishment Time Series(NETS) database; ReferenceUSA;, CA Employment
Development Department(2010); ESRI Business Analyst Online (2010); U.S. Census Bureau (2006-2010) Local
Employment Dynamics; and U.S. Census Bureau (2005-2009)American Community Survey; and the Center for
Strategic Economic Research (May 2012)
•
•
•
•
•
•
A-14
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Despite the deep economic recessions of the 2000s, the number of jobs in Dublin is greater
today than in 2000. Dublin's nonfarm establishments employed over 19,000 jobs in 2010, an
increase of around 600 jobs over 2000. There have been dramatic fluctuations the number of
jobs, similar to many other California communities. Throughout the state, the recession of 2008-
09 forced employers to shed jobs. As shown in Figure 24, Dublin continued to suffer job losses
between 2009 and 2010, though anecdotal evidence suggests the City has returned to job .
growth since then.
Figure 24: City of Dublin Employment Trend
21,000 - - 8%
20,751
r'8-5'g8 € ` I 20,492
20,500 3 3 [ 1 20,416 6%
20130 20187 20199
2Q000 - 21 _ ' L 4/
i ;
tLItt:t fag I - 4 1I 1,...-.;i 19598 L
E
19.500 7 19,385 I� .'' 280; n l k e 'l 1 ,� . � 2%
in I ! .,
i .°i 19,004
I ))PaPP
19,000 - . . € '. a Cl i j !—a 0%
., i.. ,! 1 :. 0.1% .. I i ..3 I 04°' I4.`1
? l ! r, I
18,500 - 18,412 i . . 'r l 6% -2%
1 I Li ii
16,000 j ri1 }- frf T � H I _a°i
17:500 ..I hi j i # :.. .i 6/
i
17,000 1. 1 t ` L L ,?[ . r #. . 1 ? I -LA -8%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
5 Total Employment —Annual Employment Growth
Data Source: National Establishment Time Series (NETS) database; ReferenceUSA; and the Center for Strategic
Economic Research (May 2012)
A-15
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Five industry sectors account for over half (around 53 percent) of Dublin's total employment:
Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific, &Technical Services; Manufacturing; Accommodation &
Food Services; and Administrative & Waste Services. Employment in these sectors ranges from
about 1,400 to 3,200 jobs. It is notable that the top employment categories found in Dublin are
also top sectors which employ Dublin's residents. However, as indicated above, there is still a lot
of out-commuting. Nonetheless, with good alignment between jobs and resident employment,
residents are well-positioned to seek local jobs that improve quality of life through reductions in
commute time.
Figure 25: City of Dublin Employment by Industry
Arts,Ent.,& Educational Utilities;95;0.5% Mgmt.of Companies;
Transportation& Recreation;290; Svcs.;185; ` 14;0.1%
Warehousing;306; 1.6% 1.5% 1 D{o /
Natural Resources&
Information;562:3.0% -,.. Mining;20;0.1%
Real Estate&Rental& Retail Trade;3,164;
Leasing;582; 3.1% 3 - ' 16.6%
Health Care&Social � ay � ' ti
Assistance;838; 4.4% { : g sw* :
Finance&Insurance; z e " �*
887;4.7%
1' .� s r r Prof., .;2, 7 Technical
99 4. �h'�Nlrr` l Svcs.;2,076; 10.9%
Construction;1,193;
t' 4
6.3% a - ".�`w4'`;� i H§t�r
-
Wholesale Trade;1,244;
6.5% ' - � .z
Manufacturing;1,762;
k§e. 9.3%
Other Svcs.;1,301; 6.8%
yv. j.u}v I
^ .,a., ,.. Accom.&Food Svcs.;
Government&
1,695; 8.9%
Unclassified;1,389; Admin.&Waste Svcs.;
7.3% 1,401;7.4% J
Data Source: CSER analysis of National Establishment Time Series (NETS)database; ReferenceUSA; and the
Center for Strategic Economic Research (May 2012)
A-16
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Professional, Scientific, &Technical Services jobs make up a greater share of total jobs in Dublin
than in any other Tri-Valley City. The concentration in this growing industry sector could be an
advantage for economic development in the City. Pleasanton also has a high share of its jobs in
Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services, but many more manufacturing jobs (as a share of
total jobs). San Ramon also has a notably greater share of jobs in Manufacturing. While
manufacturing jobs are critical to the regional economy, this industry is unlikely to exhibit
dramatic growth in the future. Dublin's relatively modest share of employment in Manufacturing
is unlikely to be a significant disadvantage for the City, in terms of growth potential.
Figure 26: Tri-Valley Employment by Industry Comparison
Major Industry Sector Dublin Danville Livennore Pleasanton San Ramon
Retail Trade 16.6% 14.0% 13.7% 19.3% 5.4%
Prof., Sci.,&Technical Svcs. 10.9°/ 8.6% 5.8% 9.3% 7.5%
Manufacturing 9.3% 1.9% 8.9% 19.4% 16.7%
Accom&Food Svcs. 8.9% 8.8% 6.8% 7.5% 5,6%
Adnin.&Nhste Svcs. 7.4% 3.4% 3.8% 2.9% 3.2%
Government&Unclassified 7.3% 15.7% 12.4% 5.3% 5.9%
Other Svcs. 6.8% 10.4% 5.0% 4.2% 5.3%
Wnolesa le Trade 6.5% 1.4% 13.2% 3.9% 11.5%
Construction 6.3% 4.6% 10.8% 4.7% 3.4%
Finance&Insurance 4.7% 4.1% 1.5% 7.8% 8.1%
Health Care&Social Assistance 4.4% 7.4% 7.2% 7.9% 6.6%
Real Estate&Rental&Leasing 3.1% 12.5% 36% 2.7% 2.6%
Infarrretion 3.0% 0.6% 0.8% 2.3% 14.9%
Transportation&Warehousing 1.6% 1.2% 1.8% 1.2% 0.6%
Arts, Ent.,&Recreation 1.5% 2.3% 3.4% 1.0% 1.7%
Educational Svcs. 1.0% 2.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.6%
Utilities 0.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Natural Resources&Mining 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MOmt.of Companies 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Data Sources: CSER analysis of National Establishment Time Series (NETS) database; ReferenceUSA; ESRI
Business Analyst Online, 2010; and the Center for Strategic Economic Research (May 2012)
A-17
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
In terms of employment, Dublin exhibits a regional specialization in 13 industry sectors
(compared to the East Bay). Specialization in these areas may indicate locational advantages or
unique operating conditions. In Dublin, employment data reveal specialization in Real Estate &
Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Retail Trade; Administrative & Waste Services; and Wholesale
Trade. Specialization in growth sectors, such as Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services,
suggests that Dublin will be a competitive location for job growth as the economic recovery
continues.
Figure 27: Employment Specialization by Industry Comparison
Real Estate&Rental&Leasing - .--....-....--, ..... . .Other Svcs.
Retail Trade
1. ��... ..: ..
Admin.&Waste Svcs.
Wholesale Trade E--., „ -A
Finance&Insurance .., -,: �.._..:-.T�.<.---..;-,„:,,, -•-„_- ,
Utilities
Prof.,Sci.,&Technical Svcs. - -,.__.::.
Construction ' �. ..,,. . . .�.-.----»-�---
Information
Accom.&Food Svcs.
Manufacturing
Arts,Ent.,&Recreation L, _
Natural Resources&Mining
Transportation&Warehousing
- Educational Svcs. ...;,-.-- -.-.
Government&Unclassified ,, wmum... ---;o
Health Care&Social Assistance
Mgmt.of Companies y
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%
ECity of Dublin sEast Bay Underspecialized Specialized
Data Sources: National Establishment Time Series (NETS) database, ReferenceUSA; CA Employment Development
Department data (2010); Moody's Analytics (2010); and the Center for Strategic Economic Research (May 2012)
Note: A measure of 100%means that the local area has the same share of total employment in the industry as
the larger area.
A-18
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
•
Despite hard economic times, Dublin employment growth was relatively strong over the last
decade. Twelve of Dublin's industry sectors exhibited higher rates of growth than the East Bay
between 2000 and 2010. Overall, the City's total nonfarm employment grew by over three
percent, while employment in the East Bay and California contracted (-9 percent and -4 percent,
respectively). While Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services contracted over the ten year
period, job growth between 2005 and 2010 was positive. While Manufacturing contracted
dramatically over the 2000s in Dublin, this trend is consistent with manufacturing job losses
throughout the East Bay and California.
Figure 28: Employment Growth Comparison (Percentage)
00-05 �I 05-10 00-10
Sector Dublin East Bay California II Dublin East Bay California I Dublin East Bay California
I I
Retail Trade 18.0% -0.2% 6.1% -7.6% -10.5% -8.8%I 9.1% -10.7% -12%
Rot,Sci.,&Technical Svcs. -19.6% 7.9% 4.3°% 1.9% 10.7% 4.9%� -18.1% 19.5°/ 9.3%
Manufacturing -7.4% -18.0% -18.9% -32.4% -16.6% -17.4%1 -37.4% -31.6% -33.0%
Accom.&Food Svcs. 39.1% 12.7% 10.5% -6.0% 4.2% 1.8%I 30.7% 17.4% 12.4%
Admin.&Waste Svcs. 6.0% -20.3% -2.9%1 85.8% -15.8% -11.0%I 97.0% -32.9% -13.6%
Government&Unclassified 9.0% 1.9% 4.4%%I -42.1% -8.2% 1.2%I -36.9% -6.4% 5.6%
i I
Other Svcs. 31.4% 11.7% 3.6%1 4.0% -1.7% -4.1%1 36.7% 9.8% -0.6%
1Nholesale Trade 31.5% -9.5% 4.6%ii 33.5% -13.9% -4.7%1 75.5% -22.1% -0.3%
Construction -4.9% 11.2% 23.4%1 10.4% -34.8% -38.2%1 4.9% -27.5% -23.7%
Finance&Insurance 7.1% 58.3% 18.3%I 15.0% -30.0% -19.6%1 23.2% 10.8% * -49%
Health Care&Social Assistance 75.6% 3.2% 12.2%1 32.2% 13.7% 11.9%I 132.1% 17.4% 25.6%
Real Estate&Rental&Leasing 49.6% 6.3% a0% -6.7% -18.5% -12.4%1 39.6% -13.4% -5.4%
Information 0.0% -21.4% -17.9% 1.3% -23.0% -9.7%1 1.3% -39.5% -25.8%
Transportation&Warehousing -9.7% -15.5% -6.7% -2.9% -14.1% -5.3%11 42.3% -27.4% -11.6%
Arts.Ent..&Recreation 42.0% 11.5% 10.4% -50.7% -0.7% 1.8%1 -30.0% 10.7% 12.4%
Educational Svcs. 23.5% 28.4% 18.5% -38.3% 6.5% 13.8%I -23.9% 36.7% 34.8%
Utilities 6.5% -18.3% -0.7%1 -4.0% 31.4% 3.6%i 2.2% 7.4% 2.9%
Natural Resources&Mining 300.0% -55.1% -7.0%I 0.0% 21.2% 17.8%11 300.0% -45.5% 9.6%
Mgmt.of Companies - -32.3% -24.7%i 133.3% 10.8% -12.0901- -25.0% -33.7%
Total 9.7% -1.2% 2.2%l -5.9% -al% -5.8%l 3.2% -9.2% -3.5%
I I
Data Source: National Establishment Time Series (NETS) database, ReferenceUSA, & CA Employment
Development Department data; and the Center for Strategic Economic Research (April 2012)
Note: Industries sorted by size within Dublin
A-19
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
In absolute terms, Dublin added approximately 600 jobs from 2000 to 2010. While the City
gained 1,800 jobs between 2000 and 2005, it lost nearly 1,200 jobs between 2005 and 2010. Of
Dublin's three largest sectors, only Retail Trade grew over the entire 10-_year time period-
However, while Professional, Scientific, &Technical Services lost jobs in the first half of the
decade, there was.job growth between 2005 and 2010. By far, Manufacturing experienced the
more job losses 2000 to 2010 than any other sector, in Dublin, the East Bay, and California.
Figure 29: Employment Growth Comparison (Absolute)
•
00-05 I 05-10 00-10 -
Sector Dublin East Bay California I Dublin East Bay California 1 Dublin East Bay California
I
1
Retail Trade 522 -227 95,9001 -259 -11,776 -146,0001 263 -12,003 -50,100
Ref.,Sci.,&Technical Svcs, -496 5,322 39,6001 38 7,743 47.2001 -458 13,065 86,800
Manufacturing -208 -20,919 -350,1001 -843 -15,907 -261.6001 -1,051 -36,826 -611,700
Accent&Food Svcs. 507 7,702 117.100 -109 2,882 22,0001 398 10,584 139,100
Adrrin.&Waste Svcs. 43 -14,215 -28.9001 647 -8,797 -106,8001 690 -23,012 -135,700
Governrrent&Unclassified 198 3,318 102.1001 -1.010 -14,681 28,2001 -812 -11.363 130,300
Other Svcs. 299 3,730 17.8001 50 -617 -20,6001 349 3.113 -2,800
Wholesale Trade 223 -5,121 29,600 312 -6,726 -31,8001 535 -11,847 -2,200
Construction -56 7,350 171,9001 112 -25,327 -345,5001 56 -17,977 -173,600
1
Finance&Insurance 51 17,335 98,4001 116 -14,109 -124,7001 167 3,226 -26,300
Health Care&Social Assistance 273 3,159 143,8001 204 14,030 157.4001 477 17,189 301.200
Real Estate&Rental&Leasing 207 1,105 21,0001 -42 -3.459 -35,3001 165 -2,354 -14,300
Information 0 -8,321 -103,1001 7 -7.055 -45,9001 7 -15,376 -149,000
1
Transportation&Warehousing -34 -5,944 -30,8001 -9 -4.549 -22,8001 -43 -10,493 -53,600
Arts,Ent.,&Recreation 174 1,502 22,5001 -298 -103 4,4001 -124 1,399 26,900
Educational Svcs. 57 4,198 Az,500 -115 1,226 37,5001 -58 5,424 80.000
Utilities 6 -618 -4001 -4 869 .2,0001 2 251 1,600'
1
Natural Resources&Mining 15 -1.236 -1,6001 0 214 3.8001 15 -1,022 2.200
Mgnt.of Companies ' 6 -10,780 -727001 8 2,432 -26,7001 14 -8.348 -99,400
I 1
1
Total 1,787 -12,660 313,1001 -1,195 -83,710 -864,6001 592 -96,370 -551,500
1
Data Source: CSER analysis of National Establishment Time Series (NETS)database, ReferenceUSA;, CA
Employment Development Department data and the Center for Strategic Economic Research (April 2012)
Note: Industries sorted by size within Dublin
•
•
A-20
•
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
•
Despite job losses, Manufacturing remains the top industry in terms of economic output (i.e.,
sales) in Dublin. With sales valued at roughly $568 million annually, Manufacturing accounts for
about 16.5 percent of economic output in the City. Interestingly, two of Dublin's smallest
industries in terms of employment (Information and Real Estate & Rental) generate significant
economic output—a combined total of nearly $770 million dollars annually (more than 20 percent
of the City total). Retail Trade, and Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services, Finance &
Insurance, also generate a considerable share of the City's output, around nine percent each.
Figure 30: City of Dublin Economic Output by Industry
Sector Output %of Total
Manufacturing $567,815,552 16.5%
Information $440,638,784 12.8%
Real Estate&Rental&Leasing 5327,516,288 9.5%
Retail Trade $315,983,296 9.2%
Finance&Insurance $302,327,584 8.8%
Prof.,Sci.,&Technical Svcs. 5297,614,272 8.6%
Government&Unclassified 5273,809,728 8,0%
Construction $174,316,736 5.1%
Accom. &Food Svcs. $155,796,816 4.5%
Other Svcs. . $126,814,584 3.7%
Admin. &Waste Svcs. 5107,479,232 3.1%
Ntgmt.of Companies $106,034,336 3.1%
Health Care&Social Assistance 5100.122,072 2.9%
Wholesale Trade $83,926,216 2.4%
Transportation&Warehousing $29,430,714 0.9%
Arts, Fnt., &Recreation $18,853,190 0.5%
Educational Svcs. $9,166,097 0.3%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing,&Hunting $3,143,059 0.1%
Natural Resources &Mning $707,693 0.0%
Utilities $402,505 0.0%
Total 53,441,898,753 -
Data Source: IMPLAN (2010) for Dublin and the Center for Strategic Economic Research (May 2012)
•
•
A-21
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Dublin, similar to the economy overall, predominantly consists of smaller-sized companies, with
around 91 percent of businesses employing fewer than 20 employees. Less than one percent of
businesses employ more than 100 people. With so many small businesses, and given the
importance of these small businesses to job creation and innovation, it is critical that the City
address small business needs as part of economic development activities.
Figure 31: City of Dublin Establishments by Number of Employees
50 to 99 employees, 100 to 249 employees, 250 to 499 employees,
1.6% 0.4%_ 0.1%
20 to 49 employees,
500 to 999 employees,
4.0%
0.1%
10 to 19 employees, ''
I
6.6% teti
5 to 9 employees,9.7%
`iS S
''-� ' v a`; 1 to 4 employees, 77.6%
!'N I
Data Source: CSER analysis of National Establishment Time Series (NETS)database; ReferenceUSA; and the
Center for Strategic Economic Research (May 2012)
•
A-22
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Economists commonly categorize industries and their subsectors in terms of their ability to bring
new wealth into a regional economy. These `base" industries drive economic development, while
"local-serving" industries feed off of existing wealth in the regional economy.
Typical characteristics of base activities include the following:
• They face few geographical constraints, allowing them to operate anywhere deemed
attractive.
• They produce a significant amount of goods and services for export.
• They bring net new wealth into the local economy.
By comparison, local-serving activities produce goods and services for local consumption, which
supports the recirculation of wealth does not bring new money in from outside the regional
economy.
Over 28 percent of the City of Dublin's employment in 2010 consisted of base activities—slightly
higher than California's 27 percent base employment level, but lower than the East Bay's nearly
30 percent base employment level. Over the past 10 years, base employment in Dublin declined
nine percent (compared to local employment which grew by over nine percent).
Manufacturing and Wholesale Trade account for nearly 56 percent of Dublin's current base
employment. While manufacturing employment has contracted, Wholesale Trade has shown
strong job growth over the past five- and 10-year periods. Professional, Scientific, & Technical
Services base employment subsectors comprise over four percent of Dublin's total base
employment and also experienced positive growth from 2000 to 2005 and 2005 to 2010.
Figure 32 presents the concentration and growth of Dublin's base industry subsectors. Those
base industry subsectors that are highly concentrated and/or growing may represent good
targets for economic development programs. In Dublin, Wholesale trade is distinguished relative
to other base sectors in terms of concentration and growth. In addition, While Professional,
Scientific, and Technical base subsectors (including consulting, scientific research, architecture
and engineering, legal services, and public relations) are somewhat less concentrated, these
base subsector have exhibited strong employment growth.
A-23
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
•
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Figure 32: City of Dublin Economic Base Industries •
400%
Size of Bubble=
'q 2010 Composition
./ 350%
n
o
N
-�{Real Estate &Rental
250% c
Wholesale Trade
200% -
Manufacturing a
{+°
.--
Recreation
Ret {f
reat on 150 nfarm.,ion
_ ?
3
..*'' Natural Resources&Mining t
Specialized,Declining t
S i'alized,Growing
186X ^`" .a
Underspeciolized,Declini 1 J tin :cadenced,Growing
50% H )
R,`. fi
Government Unclassified ,_ rr Transport.&Warehousing prof.,SCi.,&Technical Svcs.
-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0°rd 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
2005-2010 Employment Growth
50 I
Data Sources: National Establishment Time Series (NETS, ReferenceUSA, & California Regional Economies Project
(2004)Bay Area Economic Base Report; and IMPLAN (2010); and the Center for Strategic Economic Research
(May 2012)
•
•
A-24
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Figure 33: City of Dublin Economic Base and Local-Serving Industries
2010 Employment 00-10 Growth 05-10 Growth
Sector Base Local Base Local Base Local
Natural Resources&Mning 20 - 300.0% - 0.0% -
Utilities - 95 - 2.2% - -4.0%
Construction - 1,193 - 4.9% - 10.4%
Manufacturing 1,762 - -37.4% - -32.4% -
Vvholesale Trade 1,244 - 75.5% - 33.5% - •
Retail Trade - 3.164 - 9.1% - -7.6%
Transport.&Warehousing 289 17 -13.0% 0.0% -3.0% 0.0%
Information 490 72 70.1°! -73.0% -2.0% 30.9%
Finance&Insurance - 887 - 23.2% - 15.0%
Real Estate&Rental 59 523 -34,4% 59.9% -28.0% -3.5%
R-of.,Sci., &Technical Svcs. 828 1,248 5.6% -28.7% 28.2% -10.3%
Mgmt.of Companies - 14 - - - 133.3%
Admin. &Waste Svcs. - 1,401 - 97.0! - 85.8%
Educational Svcs. - 185 - -23.9% - -38.3%
Health Care&Social Svcs. - 838 - 132.1% - 322%
Arts, Ent.,&Recreation 280 10 9.8% -93.7% -14.4% -96.2%
Accom.&Food Svcs. - 1,695 - 30.7% - -6.0%
Other Services - 1,301 - 36.7% - 4.0%
Government&Unclassified 427 962 -37.3% -36.7% -39.7% -43.1%
Total 5,399 13,605 -9.4% 9.2°/o -11.8% -3.4%
Percent Total 28.4% 71.6%
Data Sources: National Establishment Time Series (NETS) database, ReferenceUSA; California Regional Economies
Project 2004 Bay Area Economic Base Report; and IMPLAN(2010 Coefficients) Center for Strategic Economic
Research (May 2012)
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
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Gazelle companies are those that generate annual sales of at least $500,000 and have five-year
revenue growth of 20 percent or greater. Research has demonstrated that these companies
drive considerable job growth in local economies. Dublin has 57 gazelle companies which
employ nearly 1,400 workers and generate around $422 billion in annual sales. The vast
majority of these firms employ fewer than 50 employees and a significant number of them are in
the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services sector. Programs that focus on addressing
retention of gazelle companies are likely to be effective economic development efforts for the
City of Dublin.
Figure 34: City of Dublin "Gazelle" Companies
Type Establishments Employment Sales
Total 57 1,361 $421,756,697
Small(Under 50) 48 649 $105,252,791
Nbdium(50-199) 9 712 $316,503,906
Manufacturing 6 137 $205,000,279
Rot,Sci.,&Tech,Svcs, 10 220 $21,595,800
Information 1 4 $3,000,000
Data Source: National Establishment Time Series (NETS) database and ReferenceUSA; and the Center for
Strategic Economic Research (May 2012) •
Note: Gazelle companies defined as those with $500,000 + in annual sales and 20 percent growth between 2005
and 2010
•
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
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Dublin is a well-known retail destination, with a wide variety of retail offerings and a
concentration of value-oriented shopping. At nearly $25,000 in taxable retail sales per resident,
Dublin's per capita taxable sales exceeds all other Tri-Valley cities, the East Bay, and California.
In 2010, Dublin establishments generated around $1.1 billion in total taxable sales, which places
it third among other Tri-Valley cities, despite its smaller population base.
Figure 35: Taxable Sales Per Capita Comparison
$30,000 -
i
$25,000 - $24,552
$23,563
I-1
i
rnl
X
-I $20,147
$2Q000 - - .3
i $17,587
l s
' i
$15,000 - - I. 1 F
.`; ,-j 'C :^3 � _u $13,099 $12.824
i Cl j
$10,000 - [ $9,385 $9,238 t
.k. ..444! 72 4 .= °.!! H I u` -I
$5,000 - ; i ; ,
i
1 igy:,::
_-i. !- 1 1, r
$o , ., . ,1 #.._�,l i - 1 r . 3 1
Dublin Pleasanton Livermore Danville San Ramon Tri-Valley East Bay California
Data Source: CA Board of Equalization ( 2010) and the Center for Strategic Economic Research (May 2012)
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
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Industries and Clusters for Economic Development
This section considers opportunities for focused business creation, retention, expansion, and
attraction efforts.
High-Performing Industries in Dublin
The analysis evaluates economic activity in Dublin across a number of economic indicators.
Based on the quantitative evaluation of local data, presented in Figure 36, the following major
sectors merit some consideration in economic development efforts.
• Wholesale Trade is Dublin's eighth-largest sector in terms of employment, possesses a high
level of specialization, and has the second-largest proportion of base employment. Dublin's
largest employers in this sector span a wide range of business types with focuses in areas
such as health care, food, and auto supplies.
• Real Estate & Rental & Leasing, despite its small size, has the highest level of specialization
among other major sectors in Dublin and grew nearly 40 percent from 2000 to 2010, one of
the highest growth rates in the City in this time period. Examples of Dublin businesses in
this sector include those involved in property management and vehicle rentals.
• Administrative & Waste Services is the City's fifth-largest sector and high performer across
the measured indicators. In particular, this industry ranked third-highest in terms of 10-year
employment growth (97 percent). Supply chain/ inventory management services and other
industrial services establishments are included within this sector.
•
•
•
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•
City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Figure 36: City of Dublin Employment Summary
00-10 2010 2010 Percent
Sector Grovth Composition Specialization Base
Natural Resources&Mning 300.0% 0.1% 81.7% 0.1%
Utilities 2.2% 0.5% 130.4% -
Construction 4.9% 6.3% 125.4% -
Manufacturing -37.4% 9.3% 110.3% 9.3%
Wholesale Trade 75.5% 6.5% 148.4% 6.5%
Retail Trade 9.1% 16.6% 157.5% -
Transportation&Warehousing -12.3% 1.6% 54.9% 1.5%
Information 1.3% 3.0% 118.9% 2.6%
Finance&Insurance 23.2% 4.7% 134.2% -
Real Estate&Rental&Leasing 39.6% 3.1% 191.0% 0.3%
Flof,,Scf.,&Technical Svcs. -18.1% 10.9% 129.3% 4,4%
Mgmt.of Companies - 0.1% 2.8% -
Admin.&Waste Svcs. 97.0% 7.4% 148.9% -
Educational Svcs. -23.9% 1.0% 45.7% -
idealth Care&Social Assistance 132.1% 4.4% 36.0% -
Arts, Ent.,&Recreation -30.0% 1.5% 100.0% 1.5%
-Accom. &Food Svcs. 30.7% 8.9% 118.6% -
Other Svcs. 36.7% 6.8% 185.7% -
Government&Unclassified -36.9% 7.3% 41.9% 2.2%
Data Source: National Establishment Time Series(NETS) database, ReferenceUSA, & California Regional
Economies Project 2004 Bay Area Economic Base Report; and IMPLAN (2010); and the Center for Strategic
Economic Research (May 2012)
Note: Top three sectors bolded for each factor.
•
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
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Economic Clusters
"Cluster analysis" redefines industries into groups that reflect economic and business
relationships. These groupings of interrelated firms, the clusters, provide another perspective on
economic development opportunities. This analysis identifies four clusters that likely offer
economic development potential in Dublin, including Information and Communications
Technology; Health Care and Biomedical; Business and Financial Services; and Wholesale Trade
and Transportation. Figure 37 presents an overview of the share of Dublin employment in
these clusters that meets specific economic development criteria. The criteria include:
• Regional linkages - component sub-industries supply or consume products from the largest
industry sectors in the East Bay
• Employment Multiplier - component sub-industries generate high levels of indirect job
creation and economic activity
• Commodity imports - component sub-industries supply commodities that are typically
imported
• Occupation match - component sub-industries employ workers in occupations well-
represented in the local workforce
• Base - component sub-industries generate net new wealth in the economy
Figure 37: Viable Economic Clusters in Dublin
Percent of Core Employment
2010 Regional Employment Commodity Occupation
Cluster Employment Linkages Multiplier Imports Match Base
Information&Communications Technology 1,556 7.5% 22.9% 28.7% 66.8% 38.2%
Health Care&Biomedical 1.909 45.3% 50.8% 76.8% 18.4% 57.9%
Business & Financial Services 1,786 51.3% 20.3% 54.8% 59.0% 38.7%
Wholesale Trade&Transportation 1,160 81.8% 0.0% 81.8% 2.3% 100.0%
•
Data Source: National Employment Time Series (NETS) database, ReferenceUSA, & California Regional Economies
Project 2004 Bay Area Economic Base Report; IMPLAN, 2010 Coefficients; U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2008
American Community Survey; Moody's Economy.com information; and the Center for Strategic Economic Research
(May 2012)
•
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Figure 38: City of Dublin Economic Cluster Detail
tHealthCare.8 Biomedical (1'909 ob`s Business&Finanual Services 1'786 obs
✓ General Medical and Surgical Hospitals—CI, RL, OM ✓ Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, and
✓ Health and Personal Care Stores Payroll Services—CI
✓ Home Health Care Services—CI, OM ✓ Activities Related to Credit Intermediation—EM, CI
✓ Individual and Family Services ✓ Advertising, Public Relations, and Related
✓ Medical Equipment and Supplies Manufacturing— Services—Cl. BA
EM, CI, RL, BA ✓ Agencies, Brokerages, and Other Insurance Related
✓ Navigational, Measuring, Electromedical, and Activities—OM
Control Instruments Manufacturing—EM, OM, BA ✓ Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services-
7 Offices of Dentists—CI RL, OM, BA
✓ Offices of Other Health Practitioners—CI ✓ Business Support Services
V- Offices of Physicians—Cf, OM ✓ Business, Professional, Labor, Political, and Similar
✓ Other Ambulatory Health Care Services—RL Organizations—CI
✓ Other Residential Care Facilities—CI ✓ Insurance Carriers—EM, CI, OM
✓ Scientific Research and Development Services—BA ✓ Legal Services—Cl, OM; BA
✓ Specialty(except Psychiatric and Substance Abuse) V Management of Companies and Enterprises—CI,
Hospitals—CI RL, OM
✓ Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting
Services—RL, OM, BA
✓ Nondepository Credit Intermediation—EM, CI, OM
✓ Office Administrative Services
✓ Other Financial Investment Activities—CI, RL
✓ Other Investment Pools and Funds—EM, RL
✓ Securities and Commodity Contracts Intermediation
and Brokerage—CI, RL
Inforr ation?&,Comroumcatrons Technology Wholesale Trade:&Transportation.(1,160,jobSIfs
✓ Audio and Video Equipment Manufacturing—CI, RL, ✓ Drugs and Druggists' Sundries Merchant
BA Wholesalers—CI, RL, BA
✓ Computer and Peripheral Equipment ✓ Farm Product Raw Material Merchant
Manufacturing—CI, OM, BA Wholesalers—CI, RL, BA
✓ Computer Systems Design and Related Services— V Freight Transportation Arrangement—BA
OM V Furniture and Home Furnishing Merchant
✓ Data Processing, Hosting, and Related Services— Wholesalers—CI, RL, BA
BA V General Freight Trucking—OM, BA
✓ Internet Service Providers and Web Search V Hardware, and Plumbing and Heating Equipment
Portals—BA and Supplies Merchant Wholesalers—CI, RL, BA
✓ Manufacturing and Reproducing Magnetic and ✓ Lumber and Other Construction Materials Merchant
Optical Media—BA Wholesalers—Cl. RL, BA
✓ Other Telecommunications—EM, RL, BA ✓ Miscellaneous Durable Goods Merchant
✓ Software Publishers—EM, Cl. BA Wholesalers—CI, RL, BA
✓ Wireless Telecommunications Carriers (except ✓ Miscellaneous Nondurable Goods Merchant
Satellite)—EM, RL, BA Wholesalers—CI, RL, BA
✓ Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Parts and Supplies
Merchant Wholesalers—Cl, RL, BA,
✓ Other Support Activities for Transportation—BA
V Petroleum and Petroleum Products Merchant
Wholesalers—CI, RL, BA
✓ Professional and Commercial Equipment and
Supplies Merchant Wholesalers—CI, RL, BA
✓ Support Activities for Road Transportation—BA
✓ Warehousing and Storage—BA
LEGEND: RL=regional linkages;EM=employment multiplier;CI =commodity imports;OM=occupation match;BA=base
Data Source: CSER estimates based on National Employment Time Series(NETS) database, ReferenceUSA, &
California Regional Economies Project 2004 Bay Area Economic Base Report; IMPLAN, 2010 Coefficients; U.S.
Census Bureau, 2006-2008 American Community Survey; and Moody's Economy.com information and the Center
for Strategic Economic Research (May 2012)
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
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The Health Care & Biomedical cluster contains over 1,900 jobs in a mix of Health Care industry
and Manufacturing industry activities. This cluster offers all of the five additional assessed
economic development benefits, including regional linkages, employment multiplier, commodity
imports, occupation match, and base activity. The Health Care & Biomedical cluster typically
requires office space, specialized health.care space, and flex spaces.
With nearly 1,800 jobs, the Business & Financial Services cluster includes activities in
professional and administrative services industries and associated upstream supplier industries.
This cluster also generates all five of the assessed economic development benefits. Business &
Financial Services cluster firms typically require office or retail spaces.
The Information & Communications Technology cluster supports about 1,600 jobs, with activities
related to design, manufacturing, and services in computer, internet, and telecommunications
technologies. This cluster, which includes all of the assessed benefits, requires office and
industrial/flex space.
The Wholesale Trade &Transportation cluster supports about 1,200 jobs in a variety of
wholesaler, warehousing, and transportation activities. This cluster includes four of the five
assessed economic benefits. Activities in this economic cluster typically require industrial/flex
space.
While not explicitly analyzed here due to data limitations, Clean Energy and Green Technology is
an emerging economic cluster that may also offer economic development potential. Recent
regional studies and initiatives have highlighted this economic cluster, including "Many Shades of
Green 2012" authored by Next10. According to this study, Bay Area sectors that make up the
"green technology" economy account for 28 percent of statewide employment in those sectors.
The "Energy Generation" segment accounts for 25 percent of total green jobs in the Bay Area.
Another study, prepared for the East Bay Economic Development Alliance, features the clean
energy economy in the East Bay. The study finds that Alameda County ranked number two
nationwide for investments in this sector. The East Bay overall received $355.5 million of
venture capital funding in the industrial energy sector, about one-fifth of the nationwide total.
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
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Economic Outlook
There is a consensus among several forecasts that the East Bay's economy is will grow over the
next 20 years. From 2010 through 2030, demographers and economic analysts anticipate that
the East Bay will add between around 177,000 and 398,000 jobs (between 17 and 37 percent
growth). Figure 39 shows five employment growth forecasts for the East Bay, including Woods
& Poole, Moody's, CalTrans, Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG), and ABAG
Sustainable Communities Strategy.
Figure 39: East Bay.Employment Outlook
1,600,000
..
1,500,000 •
•
1,400,000 - '�
1,300,000
f
1,200,000
.„.. .
1,100000 .z"'..___ "�-_ , • •
•
_ '"__.° * •
1,000,000
900,000
1 i
800,000 I ,- --,-- _-,- -
p0 o^ �`l, p9 �0. �h o6 p'� pW 00 ^O .s'. ^'L n� ^P ^h ,�6 n1 ^4 n9 O • ti 'S P 5 C* '1 0 A O
,yo ,y .yo ,y do ,19 e ,yo ,lo ,yo ,yo e e do ,yo ,yo ,yo ,yo ,yo ,yo ,yo't',tioR.,LO'1',yo'i',yo`L.vo`i.,yoq',tio4.,LO'i',�o't',lo�
-e-Woods&Poole -0-Moody's -+r-CalTrans 2012 -M-SCS 2012(Draft) -»4-ABAG 2009
Data Source: Moody's Analytics, Woods & Poole, CA Department of Transportation, and ABAG data; Center for
Strategic Economic Research (June 2012); and EPS
Notes: SCS refers to ABAG Sustainable Communities Strategy. Woods& Poole has a larger employment base due
to its inclusion of proprietor employment.
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
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Figure 40 presents detailed industry-level data from the private-sector forecasts (i.e., Moody's
and Woods & Poole). In the 20-year period from 2010 to 2030, Moody's forecasts slightly higher
•
total nonfarm employment growth than Woods & Poole. Moody's projects that Administrative &
Waste Services and Health Care & Social Assistance sectors will see the strongest growth (about
65 percent-and 44 percent, respectively). Alternatively, Woods & Poole forecasts top growth in
the region's Educational Services and Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services sectors
(around 63 percent and 37 percent, respectively). The Moody's and Woods & Poole forecasts
agree that employment in the Manufacturing industry will decline considerably.
Figure 40: East Bay Employment Growth Outlook
Sector 2010-2015 2010-2020 2010-2025 2010-2030
•
fvbody's
Natural Resources&Mning -0.6% -8.0% -17.5% -25.4%
LtUdies 6.9% 5.6% 5.4% 6.8%
Construction 13.5% 19.8% 23.8% 30.1%
Manufacturing -0.7% -4.1% -7.8% -11.2%
Wholesale Trade 3.9% 1.9% 1.0% 0.3%
Retail Trade 2.6% -3.3% -6.6% -9.4%
Transportation&Warehousing 7.3% 10.1% 16.9% 20.8%
Information 2.5% 4.0% 4,6% 5.9%
Fnance&Insurance 6.4% 12.9% 20.3% 30.4%
Real Estate&Rental&Leasing 1.7% 4.8% 5.3% 6.0%
Ref.,Sci.,&Technical Svcs. 16.3% 24.0% 30.8% 35.2%
fvgnt.of Companies 11.3% 13.1% 14.8% 15.4%
Adnin.&Waste Svcs, 17.3% 33.9% 50.1% 64.6%
Educational Svcs. 8.8% 15.5% 18.7% 21.6%
hbafh Care&Social Assistance 13,1% 24.2% 34.0% 44.0%
Arts,Ent.,&Recreation 5.3% 10.7% 14.3% 17.5%
Accom&Food Svcs. 12.3% 20.9% 28.2% 35.2%
Other Svcs. 8.8% 9.1% 8.9% 10.0%
Government&Unclassified 1.8% 5.7% 7.3% 8.3%
Total Nonfarm 7.6% 11.7% 15.3% 18.7%
Woods&Poole
Natural Resources&Mning 1.4% 4.2% 6.2% 7.6%
Uilities 4.3% 7.3% 9.9% 11.9%
Construction 0.2% 4.8% 9.6% 14.6%
Manufacturing -8.4% -17.3% -25.4% -32.9%
Wholesale Trade 1.2% 0.4% -0.7% -2.1%
Retail Trade -0.4% 1.1% 2.6% 4.1%
Transportation&Warehousing -3.8% -4.2% -4.9% -5.8%
Information 2.5% 1.9% 0.8% -0.7%
Finance&Insurance 4.5% 8.9% 13.0% 16.7%
Real Estate&Rental&Leasing 12.3% 19.9% 27.8% 35.9%
Ref.,Sci.,&Technical Svcs. 10.6% 19.0% 27.9% 37.4%
Mgrrt.of Companies 10.1% 13.3% 16.6% 19.8%
Adorn.&Waste Svcs. 5.9% 13.9% 22.3% 31.2%
Educational Svcs. 10.7% 26.3% 43.8% 63.4%
Fbalth Care&Social Assistance 4.7% 12.2% 20.0% 27.9%
Arts,Ent.,&Recreation 8,6% 17.6% 27.1% 37.2%
Accent&Food Svcs. 5.6% 14.5% 23.8% 33.5% •
Other Svcs. 4.0% 10.9% 18.0% 25.2%
Government&Unclassified -3.4% -2.2% -1.1% 0.0%
Total Nonfarm 3.2% 7.6% 12.2% 17.0%
Data Source: CSER analysis of Moody's Analytics and Woods& Poole data and the Center for Strategic Economic
Research (June 2012)
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Commercial Real Estate Trends
Commercial real estate trends in Alameda County, the Tri-Valley, and Dublin have generally
followed national economic cycles over the past decade. In Alameda County, the technology
boom of the late 1990s supported significant office development. Between 1999 and 2002,
developers delivered nearly 3.2 million square feet of Class A office space. Demand kept pace
with this new commercial real estate supply through 2000, but dropped off quickly with
contraction in the technology sector. In 2001, developers delivered roughly 1.4 million square
feet but office users only absorbed about 800,000 square feet, and vacancy rates spiked upward.
By 2003, in the wake of the 2001 recession, Class A office vacancy peaked at about 14 percent
in Alameda County. There has been little Class A office development since, with the exception of
some deliveries in 2007. The great recession forced vacancy up to 14 percent again in 2010, but
recent data indicate that the market is recovering, with a return to positive net absorption in
2011.
Figure 41: Alameda Class A Office Market Trend
1.600000 -- — ------- 16.0%
1,400Q00
m3 - 140%
1,200,000 °I)
i• - 120%
1000,000
' - 10.0%
800,000 r fi
rfr 5t 2 t 2
.v. 600,000 r` 8.0% o
0 400000 ' ' " to
rr.'m
200 000 31
4.0%
i • + -+-L
2.0%
(200000) - 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2 25 2007 2008 2009 2 2011
(400,000) 0 0%
Year
t32e Change in Inventory fa Net Absorption —*Vacancy Rate
Data Source: CoStar Group; EPS
•
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
The trends in the Class A office market in Dublin have been similar to those observed in Alameda
County overall. The City enjoyed a Class A office building boom in the early 2000s, but that
ended abruptly with the technology sector crash and 2001 recession. Class A Office vacancy hit
a cyclical high in 2002 and peaked again in 2010, with the most recent recession forcing Class A
vacancy in the City over 25 percent. However, more recent trends have been positive, with
recent market data revealing positive net absorption and falling vacancy. The most recent data
available, from the second quarter of 2012 (not shown), indicate that Class A office vacancy in
Dublin has fallen to about five percent.
Figure 42: City of Dublin Class A Office Market Trend
600,000 30.0%
500,000 -
- 25.0%
400,000
20.0%
300,000 —
g=p a
v cd
LL
V. 200,000 r - 15.0%
ea *° r i
Q '§ ctl
N {m
100.990 _ e•.
- 10.0%
an_i
50%
(100000)— 2000 2001 200? 2003 2004 2005 20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
(200,000) — __.___ _ _..__... 0.0%
Year
change in Inventory MOM NetAbsorp5on —drVacancy Rate
Data Source: Costar Group; EPS
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
During the last cycle of commercial office development, Dublin proved to be a highly competitive
location for Class A office development. In 2000, nearly 50 percent of Class A office space
delivered in Alameda County was in Dublin. Between 1999 and 2002, 30 percent of new
Alameda County Class A office space was built in Dublin. Figure 43 presents Dublin office space
deliveries relative to the County overall. These data suggest that when office development picks'
up again, Dublin is likely to be a highly desirable location for new projects.
Figure 43: City of Dublin Class A Office Development Capture
Alameda
Year Dublin County Capture
•
1999 195,000 460,000 42%
2000 288,241 621,584 46%
2001 248,285 1,391,895 18%
2002 230.000 715.039 32%
Total 961,526 3,188,518 30%
1999 Q3-
2002 Q1 961,526 2,438,479 39%
Data Source: Costar Group; EPS
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
• Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Driven upward by the technology sector boom, lease rates for Class A office in Alameda County
spiked during the late 1990s and early 2000s, reaching over $3.50 per square foot per month in
2001. These rates were sufficient to justify the high cost of new office development projects.
Today, lease rates are closer to $2.50 per square foot per month and there is very little office
construction activity occurring. However, with vacancy falling there is increasing upward
pressure on lease rates and growing interest in new development projects.
Figure 44: Alameda Class A Lease Rates
;53.50
1$3.00 -._.. -__... -__ -_-. ......... _.._... ._.. .__............... .. ._........... _—_.__..__
1$250 ._-......-. ....._............ .............
$200 ................ ._...-.._-_ ..... ..._.-...__ .... _..-_-._.
51.50
$1.00
$030 .............. ........ .....___- -...... __.__- __-.
M1h6 6,a dO,a oa6hp 3O,a a O �ba p3O O000 ,Nho- a � o-„S a0, oa yo- o-IS
e e e 1c9 e .y8 tic9 tidy 159 159 159 18 159 159 n59 ,yA ,159 159 159 ,y& ,y8 1S53 ,yR ,1 tich soh 159 ,.oh
Data Source: CoStar Group; EPS
Competitive Landscape
While Dublin will compete with municipalities throughout the Bay Area to attract employment
growth, the primary competition for retention and attraction of firms will be other Tri-Valley
locations. In particular, the Bishop Ranch Office Park in San Ramon and the Hacienda Business
Park in Pleasanton pose formidable competition in the market for high-quality office space.
Bishop Ranch is a 585-acre park with over 500 companies and roughly 30,000 employees. In
recent months this park has successfully attracted a number of new tenants, including General
Electric (which made news with its selection of Bishop Ranch for a new technology center), Five9,
Tiburon,_and PG&E. Since 2010, Bishop Ranch has enjoyed net absorption of more than a
quarter of million square feet of space. According to data from CoStar, the vacancy rate at
Bishop Ranch is now under five percent, a clear indication of the increasingly tight market for
Class A office space in the Tri-Valley today.
•
A-38
•
City of Dublin Economic treg
Draft onom SumaryDevelopment Report 10/23Sat/12 y
Figure 45: Bishop Ranch
-" * >_ - s "- " i
np fix^ . ' 4., ka i,q B 8Hf6 h SHOP RANCH
7. 3t{BR Y Te4 C44: 41"^ a.4 F e- 1 fi v .v W ss r �4 { ! b 6a .^ ;it' . r w5.� . p g
� 1 xr.w s . *v,. ' 6 £ ' , " r , ?a,•1•e r ' P. ,. ,c.- , BR2 , 1q4 a{ , ' - . +
` 45'Irv-- r*4"' "'z %-_-1 E Hell i.. -y,
t
tt.S.t, t s,tT' t-gd4A ......,,.,-,:.:::,,---g- -----,..---,...,# � .4 try„ o .,7:. ,-,. s+'
Data Source: Bishop Ranch
Another major competitor for office tenants within the Tri-Valley is the Hacienda Business Park.
The 875-acre Hacienda includes over 10 million square feet of mixed-use space occupied by
roughly 475 companies that employ approximately 18,000 people. Similar to Bishop Ranch,
Hacienda is home to a number of Fortune 500 firms, as well as lesser-known small- and
medium-sized firms. Currently about 20 percent vacant, Hacienda has struggled to lease large
spaces in recent years. With many buildings built during the 1980s, the space formats are dated
and in some cases are indivisible, large blocks of space. While there has been recent leasing
activity from small-space users, Hacienda's building stock appears to be somewhat out of step
with the current market. However, recent news reports indicate that Gap, Inc., is looking at the
Hacienda Business Park as a potential location for hundreds of IT workers. With continued
economic recovery, Hacienda may successfully fill spaces that have lingered on the market. The
news that large corporate users are currently seeking space in the Tri-Valley is further evidence
that vacant Tri-Valley office space may soon to be in very short supply, with new development
projects to follow.
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Figure 46: Hacienda Business Park
i i 111 - T 7 t t -..±:` ,e��- 1�% ,d > "+ �t . 7 � • ' -,
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tat� 'nit ir.i 4 ', .},t, t\ C�. v I''t•J --%.,,1,- _. ■ '.
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tr �t S m tl: y ,. ryn vi+. �•. Ql 'w�
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Economic Projections for Dublin
To establish economic development potential in Dublin, CSER prepared two employment
forecasts for the City. These projections approximate a range of possible employment growth
over the next 20 years. These two forecasts are based on statistical relationships between the
City and region and rely to a large extent on the Moody's Analytics and Woods & Poole East Bay
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
forecasts presented above.20 Shown in Figure 47, the Business As Usual forecast provides a
somewhat conservative outlook for the City of Dublin economy and assumes that similar
employment trends, internal dynamics, and relationships between the local and regional
economies will continue through 2030. Under this forecast, total nonfarm employment reaches
roughly 23,000 by the end of the forecast period, with the share of regional employment
essentially remaining the same as current levels. The Aggressive Growth forecast builds in
moderately larger gains between 2010 and 2030 for most sectors, including notably greater
growth in major sectors which demonstrate viable economic development potential or
competitive advantages. Retail Trade; Information; Professional, Scientific, and Technical
Services; and Health Care and Social Assistance are high-growth sectors in the aggressive
forecast. The Aggressive Growth forecast shows total nonfarm employment moving up to
approximately 31,000 by 2030, with Dublin capturing a greater portion of the East Bay economy
than it has historically (around 0.7 percentage points greater than recent levels). Unlike the
Business As Usual forecast, which anticipates a slower recovery from the 2008-09 recession, the
Aggressive Growth forecast reflects a strong recovery. Overall, these forecasts present the
expected range of employment growth outcomes that might occur, with the Aggressive forecast
more likely to occur with increased City economic development activities.21
20 The Business As Usual forecast was developed using linear regression analysis for two factors, total
employment and annual absolute change in employment, based on historical City of Dublin and East
Bay industry data (1990 to 2010) as well as Moody's and Woods & Poole East Bay forecasts (2011 to
2030). The Aggressive Growth forecast utilized single factor linear regression analysis for most
industries based on the data sets which demonstrated the strongest historical relationships. For those
industries where quantitative and qualitative analysis suggested that Dublin could a competitive
advantage moving forward (Retail Trade; Information; Professional, Scientific, &Technical Services;
and Health Care & Social Assistance), the most aggressive forecast outcomes for 2030 were selected.
Retail Trade and Professional, Scientific, &Technical Services-were based on a capture rate forecast
which holds the average proportion of regional employment growth constant over the forecast period.
Information and Health Care & Social Assistance utilized the linear regression analysis which produced
the largest employment outcome. In both forecasts, major industry sector employment was summed
to create Total Nonfarm values. It is important to note that both scenarios reflect mathematical
calculations based on the stated assumptions about future conditions. The projections are developed
simply to provide varying estimates of future employment levels for economic outcome and real estate
demand discussions and are not meant to incorporate judgments about the likelihood of the projection
results or embedded assumptions.
21 It is important to note that the Aggressive Growth forecast could push the buildout limits of the City
(capacity testing has not been conducted).
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City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy
Draft Summary Report 10/23/12
Figure 47: Dublin Nonfarm Employment Outlook
32,000 -
31,006
30,000 -
28,000 -
26,000 -
24,000 -
22,580
22,000 •
20,000 -
e as
18,000 - •9,004
16,000 -
14,000 -
13,484
12,000 -
10,000 , F111111 111111 . 111111 I 1111111
O N 0) 0) N 0) 0) 0) 0, O N 1) V N 0 A m O) O r r .- r r r r r r O N t7 V b N n m W O
0) 0) 0) 0) O) O) 0) O) N N O O O O O O O O O O N N N N N N N N N N g
W ` . O) . ' . W T O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O
N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N
-0—Aggressive Growth Business As Usual
Data Source: CSER analysis of National Establishment lime Series(NETS)database, ReferenceUSA, Moody's
Analytics, Woods& Poole; and the Center for Strategic Economic Research(June 2012)
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