HomeMy WebLinkAbout4.16 - 2793 ITV 2040 Vision Plan Sponsorship
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STAFF REPORT
CITY COUNCIL
DATE: August 20, 2019
TO: Honorable Mayor and City Councilmembers
FROM:
Christopher L. Foss, City Manager
SUBJECT:
Sponsorship of the Innovation TriValley Leadership Group's 2040 Vision
Plan
Prepared by: Hazel L. Wetherford, Economic Development Director
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
The City Council will consider supporting Innovation TriValley Leadership Group's 2040
Vision Plan in the amount of a $5,000 sponsorship. The 2040 Vision Plan will convene a
cross-sector group of stakeholders to compile a vision plan for the Tri -Valley region
centered around four economic drivers: transportation and mobility; land
use/housing/transit-oriented development; workforce development; and
innovation/entrepreneurship.
STAFF RECOMMENDATION:
Receive the report and approve a sponsorship of the Innovation TriValley Leadership
Group's 2040 Vision Plan in the amount of $5,000.
FINANCIAL IMPACT:
Innovation TriValley Leadership Group is requesting a commitment of $5,000 for the
2040 Vision Plan which is currently not budgeted. If the City Council approves the
proposed request, a Budget Change Form has been prepared and attached to this staff
report.
DESCRIPTION:
Innovation TriValley Leadership Group (ITV) is led by a collective of business leaders
and influencers committed to connecting the businesses, research labs, educational
institutions, and civic leaders in the Tri-Valley region. This collaborative force is
generating job growth and economic vitality for the region by advocating f or the Tri-
Valley as an innovation hub with an unparalleled quality of life. Its focus is on workforce
development, education, transportation, housing, marketing the Tri -Valley and creating
an innovation ecosystem which benefits everyone who lives and work s in the region.
In 2014, ITV partnered with the Bay Area Council Economic Institute (BACEI) and
published the Tri-Valley Rising report which aimed at taking inventory of the Tri-Valley
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region’s assets and resources, explaining its impressive economic suc cess, identifying
challenges that could threaten to impede its future growth, and providing policy
recommendations to ensure its continued vitality.
In 2018, ITV published an update to the Tri-Valley Rising report which builds upon the
findings and information presented in the first report, while also exploring more policy
options for local and regional stakeholders to better connect and strengthen the Tri -
Valley’s economy as it continues to grow. The City of Dublin was a sponsor to the 2018
Tri-Valley Rising report.
In the 2018 update of the Tri-Valley Rising report, the BACEI recommended that ITV
convene a cross-sector group of stakeholders to compile a 2040 Vision Plan for the
region. The report identified four key areas where coordinated planning in th e Tri-Valley
can lead to better economic outcomes:
1. Transportation and Mobility
2. Land Use/Housing/Transit-Oriented Development
3. Workforce Development
4. Innovation/Entrepreneurship
ITV in partnership with BACEI proposes to inform, convene, and moderate a serie s of
workshops that will act as inputs to a 2040 vision plan. Public officials, business leaders,
and other key members of the Tri-Valley economy will be invited to participate in a
series of four half-day workshops – each focusing on one of the four key areas for
coordinated planning identified in the 2018 Tri-Valley Rising report.
After these workshops are completed, BACEI will use their findings as inputs for a small
“summit” of elected officials, city planners, national laboratory representatives, and key
business stakeholders. From the initial data/case study work, four workshops, and the
summit, ITV and BACEI will then create a final report that outlines the consensus
recommendations for the future of the Tri-Valley. The recommendations will be broken
down into government actions, private/non-profit programs, and advocacy efforts.
As part of ITV’s effort to develop a 2040 Vision Plan for the Tri -Valley, they have
requested a $5,000 sponsorship to support the funding of the plan. Staff is
recommending that the City Council approve the request for sponsorship. If the City
Council approves the $5,000 sponsorship, a Budget Change Form has been prepared
which is included as an attachment to this staff report.
STRATEGIC PLAN INITIATIVE:
N/A
NOTICING REQUIREMENTS/PUBLIC OUTREACH:
N/A
ATTACHMENTS:
1. 2018 Tri-Valley Rising Report
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2. 2040 Innovation TriValley Vision Plan Fact Sheet
3. Budget Change Form
innovationtn -valley
leadership group
I Danville , Dublin , Livermore , Pleasanton = San Ramon
BAYAREA
ECONOMIC
I NSTI VOTE
About this Report,
Tri-Valley Rising was published in 2014 with the aim of
taking inventory of the Tri-Valley region's assets and
resources, explaining its impressive economic success,
identifying challenges that could threaten to impede its
future growth, and providing policy recommendations to
ensure its continued vitality. Among the report's findings
were that the Tri-Valley's innovation assets were driving its
economy, high -value connections between the Tri-Valley
and the broader region were growing, a high quality of life
was a large part of the Tri-Valley's competitive advantage,
and improving transportation systems between the Tri-
Valley and broader region would support growing
economic activity and improve competitiveness.
This July 2018 update to Tri-Valley Rising builds on the
findings and information presented in the first report,
while also exploring more policy options for local and
regional stakeholders to better connect and strengthen
the Tri-Valley's economy as it continues to grow.
Acknowledgments
The Economic Institute and Innovation Tri-Valley
Leadership Group would like to thank the following
sponsors of Tri-Valley Rising 2018:
Alameda County Supervisor Scott Haggerty
Alameda County Supervisor Nate Miley
Contra Costa County Supervisor Candace Andersen
The Cities of Dublin, Livermore, Pleasanton, San
Ramon, and the Town of Danville
East Bay Community Foundation
Mike Sandhu
This report was prepared by the Bay Area Council
Economic Institute in partnership with the Innovation
Tri-Valley Leadership Group. It is the product of
extensive analysis by the Economic Institute and input
from regional leaders. This report was authored by Jeff
Bellisario and Alice Bishop, with management from
Micah Weinberg.
About the Ignst t to
Since 1990, the Bay Area Council Economic Institute has
been the leading think tank focused on the economic and
policy issues facing the San Francisco/Silicon Valley
Bay Area, one of the most dynamic regions in the United
States and the world's leading center for technology and
innovation. A valued forum for stakeholder engagement
and a respected source of information and fact -based
analysis, the Institute is a trusted partner and adviser to
both business leaders and government officials. Through
its economic and policy research and its many partnerships,
the Institute addresses major factors impacting the
competitiveness, economic development and quality
of life of the region and the state, including infrastructure,
globalization, science and technology, and health policy.
It is guided by a Board of Trustees drawn from
influential leaders in the corporate, academic, non-profit,
and government sectors.
The Institute is housed at and supported by the Bay
Area Council, a public policy organization that includes
hundreds of the region's largest employers and is
committed to keeping the Bay Area the world's most
competitive economy and best place to live. The Institute
also supports and manages the Bay Area Science and
Innovation Consortium (BASIC), a partnership of Northern
California's leading scientific research laboratories and
thinkers.
At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, researchers
rely on some of the world's fastest supercomputers to
simulate technologies at the atomic scale. This image
shows metal atoms captured in a carbon honeycomb,
called graphene. While the image combines science
and art, Lawrence Livermore scientists are using such
imagery to study materials in hopes of improving
performance and storage capacity in lithium -ion
batteries.
Image by Ryan Chen/LLNL
Contents
Introduction....................................................................................... 5
CHAP-1 &A Z
Elements ofEconomic Success: Community, Connections, and
CHAPI'."'e3
4 Diverse Economy Provides the Base for Sustained Growth--.. 19
Innovation Defines the Tri-Valley's Past and its Path Forward ........ 25
CHAPTER '5
CwxrTF.R 6
Confronting Challenges tothe Th-VaUey'sFuture Economic
'_"-�,"'rTER. 7'
Rising tothe Challenge inthe Tri-VaUey......................................... 52
C+mpTE,m8
Executive Summary
Since the publication of Tri-Valley Rising in 2014, the Tri-
Valley region has only continued to grow. Given its high
quality of life and proximity to top jobs, large numbers
of people have continued to move to the Tri-Valley. The
region has grown by 8%just since 2014, adding 28,000
more people. The number of jobs has grown even more
rapidly, increasing by 12% since 2014.
This growth is due to a variety of assets that have made
the Tri-Valley such a successful hub of economic activity.
These key factors include:
• A highly educated population — 60% of Tri-Valley
residents have a bachelor's degree or higher, making
the region significantly more highly educated than
California or the Bay Area as a whole. This strong
talent pool makes the Tri-Valley a very attractive
place for employers to locate.
• Geographic connectivity to one of the most
economically productive regions in the world
— the Tri-Val ley is at the heart of the Northern
California Megaregion, close to San Francisco,
Silicon Valley, Sacramento, and the Central Valley,
which has allowed it to attract new and growing
businesses, in addition to a large pool of workers.
• Comparative affordability of housing — although
Tri-Valley home prices have been rising quickly, they
are still less expensive than in Silicon Valley and San
Francisco. The median home value in the Tri-Valley is
still below $1 million, while in San Francisco it is $1.2
million and in Silicon Valley it is $1.1 million.
• High -value, lower -cost commercial real estate —
for businesses looking to open offices in the region,
locating in the Tri-Valley instead of San Francisco
can mean saving more than half of what they would
otherwise be paying for rent. It also often means
getting high -value space in amenity -filled campuses
like Bishop Ranch and Hacienda. The average price
per square foot for office space is $32.04 in the
Tri-Valley, compared to $52.20 in Silicon Valley and
$74.17 in San Francisco.
• A high quality of life that attracts innovators and
business leaders — the Tri-Valley's natural beauty,
tight -knit communities, top-notch schools, and
charming downtowns are often cited as key reasons
behind the decision to do business in the Tri-Valley.
The region's schools are among the best in the state,
with a graduation rate of 97%, compared to 86% for
the Bay Area as a whole. The Tri-Valley also excels at
offering opportunities for work -life balance, allowing
people to live nearby to where they work.
• An ecosystem of innovation —the Tri-Val ley
has become a hotbed of innovation and
entrepreneurship. The two national laboratories —
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and
Sandia National Laboratory —have led the region
in innovation for over 50 years. Incubators such
as i-GATE and accelerators such as BRIIA have
helped homegrown entrepreneurs succeed. Over
450 technology companies are located in the Tri-
Valley, and the region has received over $4 billion in
venture capital and private equity investment in the
past 10 years.
While all of this growth has brought great economic
success to the Tri-Valley, it has also brought with it some
of the accompanying challenges that have been facing
much of the rest of the Bay Area. We present several
key findings and recommendations to ensure that the
Tri-Valley retains its high quality of life while at the same
time allowing innovation and economic expansion:
Housing development is needed to stem the rise
in cost of living. Although wages have generally
kept better pace with increases in the cost of living
in the Tri-Valley than in San Francisco, growth in
cost of living has begun to outpace wages in recent
years. High demand for housing in the Tri-Valley is
reflected in rapidly rising home prices.
The Tri-Valley Sits at the Heart o
Innovation in the Northern California
e are ion
Tri-Valley Rising 2018
® If housing prices continue to rise, Tri-Valley
businesses may have a hard time attracting
workers. It will be imperative to increase the supply
of housing to satisfy some of the high demand. The
Tri-Valley has been more successful than Silicon
Valley and San Francisco in creating a jobs -to -
housing balance, but more housing is still needed.
Transit -oriented development will be an important
piece in achieving a betterjobs-to-housingbalance.
® Transportation is the key bottleneck for the Tri-
Valley's growth. The increasing cost of Bay Area
housing has also contributed to another of the Tri-
Valley's major challenges: transportation. As people
working in the Bay Area move to more far flung
places around the megaregion, they must travel
longer distances to get to their jobs.
Average daily vehicle hours of delay on 1-580 and
1-680 have increased significantly since 2013, and
greater strain has been placed on both BART
and ACE as transit ridership rises. Investment
in transportation will be key in maintaining the
Tri-Valley's status as a desirable place to live and
work. Important steps will include creating greater
megaregional transit connectivity in the form
of a rail link between ACE and BART, as well as
strengthening the core of the transit system.
Planning for the future of the Tri-Valley will require a
great deal of collaboration. To this end, we recommend
that Innovation Tri-Valley Leadership Group serve as
the convener of the five cities, two counties, and other
regional stakeholders to create an "Innovation Tri-Valley
Vision Plan." Through the process of creating this plan,
stakeholders should seek to answer how they can ensure
the sustainability of their economies while continuing to
attract businesses and the jobs that they bring.
The plan should address the need for greater transit
connectivity, improved transportation infrastructure,
a larger supply of housing for a range of income
groups, preparedness for future innovations in mobility
and the nature of work, and enhanced support for
entrepreneurship and innovation. Such a plan can create
a roadmap for setting the Tri-Valley on a path toward an
even brighter future.
3
Introduction
Sitting in the center of the economically vibrant
Bay Area, the Tri-Valley has put itself on the map
as one of the most innovative and fastest growing
areas in Northern California. Surrounded by rolling
hills, parkland, and a significant piece of the Bay Area's
agricultural footprint, the Tri-Valley's physical character is
far from dense or urban. Yet, its economic character can
hardly be categorized as suburban.
Unlike most suburban areas, the Tri-Valley is a major job
center, home to two national labs and the headquarters
of more than 450 technology companies.' With a
regional gross domestic product (GDP) of $42 billion —
similar to that of the Durham -Chapel Hill metropolitan
area —the Tri-Valley is far more than a bedroom
community. The juxtaposition of urban and suburban
elements defines the Tri-Valley, a region that combines
livability with rapid economic growth.
The Tri-Valley takes its name from three nearby valleys:
Amador Valley, Livermore Valley, and San Ramon Valley.
It encompasses the cities of Danville, Dublin, Livermore,
Pleasanton, and San Ramon. Located near the
geographical middle of the Bay Area, it is 20 miles from
Oakland, 28 miles from San Francisco, and 30 miles
from San Jose. The region has a population of 361,000,
comprising about 5% of the Bay Area's population.
Looking ahead, the Tri-Valley is well -positioned to be
a key cog in the economy of the Northern California
Megaregion. As the Bay Area's economy expands,
roadblocks to growth lie in the availability of affordable
space —housing for a growing workforce and office and
industrial buildings for growing companies.
For this reason, planning for growth outside of the
traditional nine -county boundary of the Bay Area region,
to the Northern San Joaquin Valley and Sacramento
Region, is imperative for the Tri-Valley to continue
along an upward economic growth trajectory. Without
long-term planning, the Tri-Valley might face many of
the same problems that plague other parts of the Bay
Area —extremely high housing costs, a lack of economic
mobility, and heavy congestion on roadways.
The Tri-Valley's story is one of rapid growth and
economic progress, which we first explored in Tri-
Valley Rising in 2014. That report sought to illuminate
the Tri-Valley's role in the Bay Area by focusing on the
connectivity between the Tri-Valley and San Francisco
and Silicon Valley. It found that the Tri-Valley has strong
links to the broader Bay Area, with many of its residents
commuting to other parts of the region and a great deal
of capital and resources flowing in from Silicon Valley.
This report will provide an update to many of the
numbers and trends seen in the last report, but it will
place a greater focus on turning inward to explore the
Tri-Valley's successes and future challenges that come
with rapid growth. It will examine how and why the
Tri-Valley got to where it is today, as well as how the
region can continue to expand economically while at
the same time maintaining its quality of life. This will
involve looking in-depth at the people, businesses,
and collaborative organizations of the Tri-Valley, and
exploring how the Tri-Valley can best position its
economic assets in the context of the Bay Area region
and the broader Northern California Megaregion.
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
I.,011aboration DrivesInnovation
in the Tri-Valley
Much of the Tri-Valley's economic success stems from
its strength in innovation and entrepreneurship. A large
piece of this is due to the region's two national labs —
Sandia National Laboratory and Lawrence Livermore
National Laboratory (LLNL). Catalysts for scientific
discovery, the labs collectively employ about 8,000
people. In recent years, they have worked heavily with
industry to transfer lab technologies to both startups
and established businesses. Initiatives like the Livermore
Valley Open Campus have also allowed the labs to
partner directly with private -sector entrepreneurs and
problem -solvers to develop new, groundbreaking
technologies.
Another key player in the Tri-Valley's ecosystem of
entrepreneurship and discovery is the Innovation Tri-
Valley Leadership Group (ITV), which was created
by business leaders and influencers committed to
connecting the businesses, research labs, educational
institutions, and civic leaders in the Tri-Valley.
ITV is comprised of cross -sector collaborators who are
drawing in new businesses, helping existing businesses
expand, attracting workforce, and branding the Tri-
Valley as a region that enables businesses and residents
alike to help to create a better world, while living a
better life. The Tri-Valley has positioned itself as a key
node in the Bay Area's innovation ecosystem, and as the
region has developed, its businesses, entrepreneurs,
and leaders have proven that they can stand on their
own —no longer reliant on a close proximity to Silicon
Valley as a main selling point. ITV advances the region
by illuminating and advocating for its unique attributes
and assets, while putting the spotlight on its member
businesses and their impact on the world.
Innovation Tri-Valley Leadership Group's work plan
has four major pillars described below. ITV has formed
working groups around each of these pillars with
the aim of increasing public engagement, improving
access to education and health care services, and with
an overarching goal to promote and advance the Tri-
Valley's innovative regional ecosystem.
Business Innovation: Attract businesses and skilled
workforce to the region. Support accelerator and
incubator programs so that new businesses can
launch and flourish. Better leverage local intellectual
property through tech transfer and commercialization
programs and by working with the region's two
national laboratories.
Education and Workforce Development: Develop
an innovative workforce by bringing business and
educators to the same table so they can work
together on curriculum and resources to produce a
talent pipeline for the Tri-Valley region and the world.
Public -Private Innovation: Advocate for
greater infrastructure investment in the region.
Housing, infrastructure, and transportation are
all key initiatives. IN has close relationships with
government officials and staff from local up to the
federal government, positioning it to be a powerful
advocate for infrastructure investment.
Innovation -Based Brand Positioning: Showcase the
Tri-Valley region as a community of thinkers fueled by
collaboration, empathy, innovation, and a high quality
of I ife.
Today, the Tri-Valley is home to a vital ecosystem of
innovation and collaboration, as heralded by CEOs from
throughout the region. In this report, we will seek to
explain why the Tri-Valley has seen so much economic
success, and will provide a roadmap for navigating the
potential challenges that could prevent the region from
continuing along its current path of prosperity.
As nearby San Francisco and Silicon Valley become
increasingly expensive and congested, the Tri-Valley
has an opportunity to capture a greater share of the
Bay Area's growth. But as its economy expands, the
Tri-Valley will need to proactively address some of the
same problems that have plagued other parts of the Bay
Area if it is to maintain its combination of robust growth
and high quality of life. One opportunity may come
from better connections outside of the nine -county
Bay Area, as the Tri-Valley sits at the geographic center
of the coalescing economy of the Northern California
Megaregion.
Elements of Economic Success.- Commun"ity,
Connections,and Competitive
Across the United States, companies are leaving the
suburbs for large cities. McDonald's, General Electric,
Motorola Solutions, and Marriot International all recently
announced plans to move headquarters from their
previous suburban locales to downtown city centers.
Wages are increasing more rapidly in urban counties
than in suburban ones,2 and poverty rates are rising
faster in suburbs than in cities.'
Yet, against this national backdrop, the traditionally
suburban Tri-Valley is thriving. Its population has grown
by 29% since 2005, compared to 13% growth in the Bay
Area as a whole. The Tri-Valley's five major cities have
all experienced population expansions in the last 10
years, and the region's population now totals 361,000.
If the Tri-Valley was a single city, it would be the 11th
largest city in California, just behind Anaheim. Dublin
has grown particularly quickly, increasing its size by 66%
from 2005 to 2018 and ranking as California's seventh -
fastest -growing city in 2017.4
Employment, too, is growing rapidly in the Tri-Valley,
faster even than in otherjob centers in the high -growth
Bay Area, and much faster than California overall.
Tri-Valley employment —which surpassed 194,000
in mid-201 7 —increased by 35% from 2006 to 2016,
compared to 31% growth in San Francisco and 19% in
Silicon Valley. California's employment growth in this
time period was only 8%.
Though employment in the Tri-Valley took a greater hit
during the recession than in some of these other places,
it has seen strong recovery since 2010, during which
time it grew at the same rate as in Silicon Valley and
much faster than in California overall.
Why has the Tri-Valley become such a hub of economic
and population growth when suburban areas across
the country are struggling to attract business? One key
reason is its history of innovation and entrepreneurship,
which we will explore in a later section. In the remainder
of this section, we will analyze five other qualities that
have been critical drivers of this growth:
1. A highly educated population
2. Geographic connectivity
3. Comparative affordability of housing
4. High -value, lower -cost commercial real estate
5. A high quality of life that attracts innovators and
business leaders
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
Population Growth in the Tri-Va Bey from 2010 to 2017
2010 2017
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60 000
50,000
f
40,000
30,00020,000
z=^i
10,000
0
Danville
Dublin
Source: California Departmentof Finance,
E-1 Population Estimates
Analysis: BayArea Council Economic Institute
140
135
130%
125
120
115%
110%
'105
'100
95
90
I
Livermore
Pleasanton San Ramon
Percentage Employment Growth Since 200
Tri-Valley -San Francisco Silicon Valley , �-Caffornia _ United States
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: California Economic Development Department; Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute
Workforce Talent Draws
Employers to e Tri-Vallel
The Bay Area is one of the most well-educated
regions of California, and the Tri-Valley's workforce has
significantly higher educational attainment than the
Bay Area as a whole. Where 33% of California's adult
population and 47% of the Bay Area's had a bachelor's
degree or higher in 2016, 60% of the Tri-Valley's adult
population did. Similarly, 26% of adults in the Tri-Valley
had a graduate or professional degree. In California, this
number was only 12%, and in the Bay Area it was 19%.
The Tri-Valley has become even more highly educated
since the publication of Tri-Valley Rising. From 2012
to 2016, the percentage of the population with a
bachelor's degree or higher rose by 6 percentage
points. In California as a whole, this percentage rose
more slowly, with a 3-point increase. The portion of
the Tri-Valley's population with a high school degree or
lower dropped by 4 percentage points, from 19% to
15%. In the Bay Area, this population shrank by 3 points,
and in California by 2 points.
Tri-Valley Rising 2018
This highly -educated talent pool in the Tri-Valley
contributes to a very productive workforce. With a
regional GDP of $42 billion in 2016, the Tri-Valley's GDP
per worker is about $225,000. This is much higher than
California's $160,000, and the U.S.'s $132,000.
This is not to say that residents of the Tri-Valley are
more hardworking than those in other places, but it
is a reflection of the mix of high -value industries and
occupations —which pay relatively high wages —that
make up the Tri-Valley economy.
The Tri-Valley's workforce and talent pool make it
a highly attractive place for employers to locate,
especially for those that hire a large proportion of
people with graduate degrees. This creates a cycle:
as more STEM employers move to the Tri-Valley, more
highly -educated people look to the region as a place to
live and work.
However, the Tri-Valley's highly -educated talent pool is
not the only reason the region has been so economically
successful; its proximity and connections to other parts
of the Bay Area have also been crucial.
ducati®na� Attainment
■ High School or Less Some College or Associate's Dagrce Bachelor's Degree Ed Graduate or Professional Degree
California Tri-Valley
2012
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey one-year estimates
Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute
Bay Area California
2016
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
Productivity: GDP per Worker, 2016
S300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
4
NZ
x i N
5100,000
''
�*
$50,000
�4
$O
T6Valley San Francisco Silicon Valley
California United States
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Quarterly Census of Wages and Employment
Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute
TRINALLEY AT A GLANCE
Foreign-Born
A Highly -Educated
BringsTalent and Diversity i
The Tri-Valley's population has become increasingly
diverse over the past 10 years. The percentage of the
population born in a foreign country has grown from
19% in 2006 to 22% in 2011 to 27% in 2016. This is
lower than in the Bay Area as a whole, where 31 % of
the population is foreign -born, but it is much higher
than the U.S. overall, where 13% of the population is
foreign -born.
Rut
The Tri-Valley's foreign -born population is extremely
highly educated, bringing a great deal of talent and
experience to the region's economy. Of Tri-Valley adults
over the age of 25 who were born in a foreign country,
32% have a graduate or professional degree. This
compares to 19% for the native-born population. The
Tri-Valley's foreign -born workers are a strong asset to its
innovative economy and community.
The Bay Area is one of the most economically vibrant
regions in the nation. If it were a country of its own, it
would be the 19th largest economy in the world.5 Being
a part of this region has been vital to the Tri-Valley's
success at averting the fate of suburban areas across
the U.S. that are facing economic stress. The Tri-Valley's
advantageous position at the juncture of 1-580 and
1-680 and proximity to San Francisco, Silicon Valley,
Sacramento,and the Central Valley have allowed it to
attract new and growing businesses, in addition to a
very large pool of workers.
At the same time, affordability issues in the core of the
Bay Area continue to make the Tri-Valley an attractive
alternative for households and companies at the
geographic center of the economically diverse Northern
California Megaregion.
This puts employers like Topcon Positioning
Systems —a maker of geo-positioning technology
used in a variety of commercial arenas from agriculture
and construction to military equipment and city
infrastructure —in a very advantageous position. With
NO�
1�
€ re'
A Lam Research
Tri-Valley Rising 2018
offices all over the world, being based in Livermore
allows Topcon to take advantage of the highly -educated
workforce in the Tri-Valley and nearby Silicon Valley,
while still being close to the more affordable housing
in San Joaquin County, where it can recruit for its
manufacturing jobs.
Lam Research, a Fortune 500 maker of semiconductor
manufacturing equipment, employs a large number of
Tri-Valley and San Joaquin County residents, and its
location in Livermore makes this possible. Lam Research
gives some employees the option to work in Livermore
or its Fremont headquarters. The company is doubling
the size of its Livermore work space as a large number
of people have chosen the Livermore location, coupled
with a volume increase driven by chips for cloud
computing, big data analytics, and Internet of Things.
The Tri-Valley's central location is not only critical to
the businesses of the area, it also gives residents the
opportunity to work across the Bay Area region. While
76% of Tri-Valley employed residents work in either
Alameda or Contra Costa counties, a full 16% of Tri-
Valley residents who work outside their homes —nearly
25,000 people —commute to work in Silicon Valley
11
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
Tri®Valley Resident Commuters by Work Destination County
�wn 2016 2011 2007
1 �'%'"'„'%r '° MIN xxi"
s,
Alameda
Contra Costa
10,000 20,000 30,000
Source: IPUMS-USA, University of Minnesota
Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute
(defined as San Mateo and Santa Clara counties).
Another 10,000 residents (7%) commute to work in San
Francisco. This connection to the rest of the Bay Area
appears to have strengthened since 2007, at least in
terms of commute flows, as the number of commuters
to Santa Clara, San Francisco, and San Mateo counties
has increased. Since the Tri-Valley is located near
the geographic center of the Northern California
Megaregion, its residents have access to jobs across
counties, giving them a high degree of flexibility and
a wide range of opportunity. This is helped by the Tri-
Valley's two BART stations and location at the juncture
of 1-580 and 1-680.
40,000
The Tri-Valley's geographic location has also facilitated
the flow of investment, resources, and expertise into the
Tri-Valley. Many Tri-Valley entrepreneurs and business
leaders have worked in San Francisco and Silicon Valley
in the past and have successfully leveraged these
experiences and connections to create new companies
in the Tri-Valley:
12
50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000
• One example is the story of Unchained Labs, a
medical instrument manufacturer. Founded by Tim
Harkness in 2014, the company received a Series A
investment round of $25 million in 2015 and a Series
C round of $13 million in 2017.'Harkness previously
helped found ProteinSimple and Molecular Devices,
both companies located in Silicon Valley. The new
company did not have to look far for funding; one of
its lead investors is a San Francisco -based firm and
another is based in Silicon Valley.
• Another such example is Deep Sentinel, founded
in Pleasanton by David Selinger in 2017. Selinger
worked directly with Jeff Bezos in Amazon's
early days and then went on to co-found both
RichRelevance and Redfin. Deep Sentinel, an
artificial -intelligence -based home security startup, is
his current project. The company has already raised
$7 million in a Series A round from investors such as
Shasta Ventures, Bezos Expeditions, and Lux Capital.
Tri-Valley Rising 2018
Commuters by Education
Tri-Valley residents' commute destination by level of
education reveals significant variation depending on
place of work. The Tri-Valley residents who commute to
Santa Clara, San Francisco, and San Mateo counties are
the most highly educated groups of commuters. Among
those who work in Santa Clara County, 77% have a
bachelor's degree or higher. For Contra Costa County,
by contrast, 59% have a bachelor's degree or higher,
and for Alameda County 50% do.
100%
90
80%
70 %
SO%
50
40
30
20
10%
0%
This suggests that many of the very highly -educated
people working in San Francisco and Silicon Valley are
choosing to live in the Tri-Valley. As such, there may be
a significant economic development opportunity for
Tri-Valley businesses to recruit from the pool of highly -
educated workers who already live in the area and who
might be enticed by the prospect of a much shorter
commute.
Tri®Valley Commuters by Destination County and
Educational Attainment, 2016
® High School or Less rA Some College 0 Bachelor's Degree a Graduate or Professional Degree
Alameda Contra Costa Santa Clara San Francisco
80,633 35,717 10,692 1,745
*Total number of commuters to each county listed beneath county name
San Mateo San Joaquin
5,961 18,768
Source: IPUMS USA, University of Minnesota
Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute
13
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
Comparative Affordability of
Housing
The Tri-Valley's geographic place within the Bay Area
has also helped its success in another way: giving it a
comparative cost advantage over the region's other job
centers. As both housing and commercial real estate
have become increasingly expensive in the Bay Area's
inner core, the Tri-Valley has remained more affordable,
enticing businesses and people alike to move there.
Though Tri-Valley homes are expensive compared to
California as a whole, they are relatively inexpensive
compared to many other parts of the Bay Area.
• Since 2012, the median home value in the Bay Area
has increased by 76%. In San Francisco, it increased
by 74%, and in Silicon Valley, it increased by 79%.
The median home value in San Francisco is now $1.
million, and in Silicon Valley it is $1.1 million.
• In the Tri-Valley, the median home price is below
$1 million and its value increased by 56% between
2012 and 2017.
a
Another key reason the Tri-Valley has been an appealing
place for companies to locate is its relatively inexpensive
commercial real estate. In 2017, the average yearly
rental price per square foot for office space in the
Brighton Homes in Livermore
14
Tri-Valley was $32.04. For Silicon Valley it was $52.20,
and for the Oakland metropolitan area it was $38.52.
In San Francisco, office space was more than twice as
expensive as in the Tri-Valley, at $74.17 per month.
Commercial real estate prices have also grown more
slowly over the past few years in the Tri-Valley than in
nearby areas. From 2014 to 2017, Silicon Valley rents
increased by 40% and Oakland metropolitan rents by
46%. The Tri-Valley saw increases of only 20%.
For businesses looking to open offices in the region,
locating in the Tri-Valley instead of San Francisco can
mean saving more than half of what they would be
paying for rent. It also often means getting high -value
space in amenity -filled campuses like Bishop Ranch and
Hacienda business parks, where some of the nation's
top companies have major offices, including Allergan,
AT&T, Bank of the West, Blackberry, Boeing, Chevron,
Cisco Systems, Donor Network West, Gap, GE Digital,
Hewlett-Packard Inc., IBM, Kaiser Permanente, MetLife,
Morgan Stanley, Nest16, Oracle, PG&E, Rodan + Fields,
SAP, Verizon, Walgreens, and Walmart. Commercial
real estate in the Tri-Vallley is also desirable for many
employers because of its proximity to the Central Valley,
where more of their employees can afford to live.
There is still office space available for businesses to
move in to the Tri-Valley and expand, meaning that
upward pricing pressures are currently fairly limited.
With a vacancy rate of 10%, the area still has some
office capacity.6 San Francisco has a tighter market,
with a vacancy rate of 8.6%, leaving less room for new
businesses to move in without additional development.'
CallidusCloud in Dublin
RM
$73.05
$1,400,000
$200,000
S80
570
$60
$50
Tri-Valley Rising 2018
Median Home Value Regional Comparison
(Based on Zillow Home Value Index)
®Bay Area —California —Tri-Valley Silicon Valley San Francisco
$0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Zillow Home Value Index, All Homes Time Series Note: Median values are for the month of
Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute August of each year
Average Price per Square Foot for Office Space
Tri-Valley m Oakland Area Silicon Valley San Francisco
$62.93
249.68
15
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
uz r
igh Quality of Life Attracts
The high quality of life in the Tri-Valley has helped
to attract companies and jobs to the region. Many
business leaders described the region's natural beauty,
tight -knit communities, top-notch schools, and charming
downtowns as key reasons behind their decision to do
business in the Tri-Valley. Indeed, the region appears to
offer an alternative to those who want to have an option
for easy commutes between home and work.
Fifty percent of Tri-Valley residents who work outside
their homes have a commute of 30 minutes or less.
Twenty-three percent of residents have a commute of
under 15 minutes. This compares to only 11 % of San
Francisco residents with a commute under 15 minutes.
However, a significant proportion of Tri-Valley residents,
16
25%, commute over an hour to get to work. There is
likely significant overlap between this group and the
23% of Tri-Valley residents who work in Silicon Valley or
San Francisco.
The Tri-Valley also excels at offering opportunities for
work -life balance. People who both live and work in
the Tri-Valley often have short commutes, which helps
maximize the time they are able to spend with their
families. Additionally, because the Tri-Valley is home to
so many families with children, business leaders have
noted that the region's workplace culture is supportive
of policies like flexible scheduling that allow people
to participate in their children's lives and in their
communities. Tri-Valley community members do not
have to sacrifice the opportunity to work at impactful
and innovative companies for the ability to invest quality
time at home.
Length of Commute to Work for Tri-Valley Residents, an Minutes
100
90
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey One -Year Estimates
Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute
2016
PA 60+
45-59
30-44
15-29
0-14
Tri-Valley Rising 2018
Education System Adds to Quality of Life
In interviews, many business leaders in the area cited
the quality of the region's schools as one of the main
reasons why they chose to move to the Tri-Valley.
For the 2015-2016 school year, the graduation rate
for Tri-Valley school districts was 97%. This was more
than 10 percentage points higher than the rates for both
Silicon Valley and the Bay Area as a whole. Similarly, the
dropout rate in the Tri-Valley was only 2%, compared
to 11 % for Silicon Valley and 9% for the Bay Area. This
is an improvement since the publication of Tri-Valley
Rising, at which time the most recent data available
was from the 2011-2012 school year, and the Tri-Valley's
graduation rate was 95%.
Over 70% of Tri-Valley high school students completed
the courses required for application to the University
of California and California State University systems. In
Silicon Valley and the Bay Area overall, fewer than 50%
of students completed these courses. Tri-Valley students
have become even better prepared for college since
2012, when 60% of students completed the UC/CSU
course requirements.
100%
90%
80 %
70%
60%
50 %
Further providing educational opportunities to the Tri-
Valley's youth, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
(LLNL) and Sandia have launched several initiatives
to support STEM education. LLNUs annual Science
on Saturday lecture series reaches thousands of Tri-
Valley K-12 students each year. Its Fun With Science
program is presented to elementary -age students at the
laboratory's Discovery Center auditorium throughout
the school year. Furthermore, more than 600 college
students from across the nation regularly intern at LLNL
during the summer months.
Through LLNUs Teacher Research Academy, middle
school, high school, and community college faculty
can get hands-on experience in real -world science.
Additionally, LLNL and Sandia co-sponsor two annual
Expanding Your Horizons conferences, which are
designed to encourage middle school and high school
girls to consider careers in math and science. Sandia's
Family Science Night provides hands-on science
activities at local elementary schools, inspiring Tri-Valley
students to become interested in science fields.
Graduation Rate, Dropout Rate, and Share of Graduates Who
Feet UC/CSU Requirements, 2015-2016
® Tri-Valley mSiliconValley ■ Bay Area
Dropout Rate
17
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A Diverse Economy Provides -the Base for
Sustained
As the Tri-Valley has grown, it has done so through
a diverse array of industries with a spectrum of
employment across all skill levels. While the region
certainly has clusters in the life sciences and software
industries, it hosts companies and jobs of many types —
from high -skilled technology jobs, to middle -skilled jobs
in manufacturing, to local -serving roles in retail, leisure,
and healthcare.
Additionally, the cities of the Tri-Valley all recognize
their unique strengths that allow the region to form a
cohesive economy. This is especially true when it comes
to real estate, as cities like San Ramon and Pleasanton
contain much of the Tri-Valley's prime office space,
Danville is mainly residential, Dublin offers flexible
spaces for retail and commercial uses, and Livermore
can host many industrial companies. This unique
diversity allows companies that locate in the Tri-Valley to
have multiple locations for multiple types of operations
but that are still near one another and still connected.
The Tri-Valley's main employment sectors have
experienced differential rates of growth since 2005. The
sector group that added the most jobs was business,
scientific, and management services, which nearly
doubled its employment in the past 11 years. About
30% of all new jobs created in the Tri-Valley since 2005
were in this group. Though it added a smaller absolute
number of jobs, the education, health care, and social
assistance sector is the fastest growing in the Tri-Valley,
increasing its employment by 94% since 2005—this
falls in line with trends seen nationally. The only sector
to lose jobs over this time period is construction, which
decreased its employment by about 6%.
When drilling down into specific industries, hospitality
is becoming an increasingly significant part of the Tri-
Valley economy. Employment in accommodation and
food services more than doubled from 2005 to 2016,
now accounting for about 9% of Tri-Valley jobs. A further
dive into sub -industries reveals that five of the top 15
sub -industries in terms of absolute employment growth
between 2005 and 2017 have a high percentage of
STEM occupations:
1. Computer Systems Design and Related Services
(+2,225 jobs)
2. Outpatient Care Centers (+1,974 jobs)
3. Navigational and Control Instruments
Manufacturing (+812 jobs)
4. Software Publishers (+750 jobs)
5. Computer Equipment Manufacturing (+500 jobs)
Ice
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
Tri-Valley Empoyment by Sector
12005 ri 2016
Business, scientific, and management services
r t t y Em
Retail 'gin" tea„
Manufacturing and wholesale trade
•
Education, health care, and social assistance
Construction
Public administration
Finance and real estate —
Information
Transportation
Agriculture
0 5,000 10,000
Source: State of California, Employment Development Department
Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute
Industry
15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
Educational Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Retail Trade
Utilities
Public.Administration
..........-............
Wholesale Trade
Source: California Employment Development Department
Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute
20
Healthcare Sector Provides Jobs
d Adds to Quality
As shown on the opposite page, jobs in healthcare are
growing at a very fast rate in the Tri-Valley. Not only
do healthcare systems provide a variety of jobs across
skill levels, they also make the region an attractive
place to live. Stanford Health Care - ValleyCare,
John Muir Health, Stanford Children's Health, Kaiser
Permanente, and others create a very strong regional
healthcare system in the Tri-Valley.
Kaiser is in the process of constructing a new 220,000
square foot facility in Dublin, which will provide
Tri-Valley Rising 2018
primary care as well as specialty medicine in fields
such as head and neck surgery, urology, and radiation
therapy. Kaiser also owns 58 acres of land surrounding
its Dublin medical site where further development is
possible, depending on factors like membership growth,
economic health, and changes in medical technology.
It is important to note that these healthcare providers
do not operate in isolation, they often partner with
medical and biotechnology start-ups in the region. It is
this type of collaboration that has allowed the Tri-Valley
to develop a robust cluster of health and biotechnology
companies, including Purigen Biosystems, Natus, Carl
Zeiss Meditec, BioVentrix, and Spirosure.
Agricultural History of the TH-Valley Remains
Important Today
The Tri-Valley is not just a hub for the high-tech industry;
it is also home to many acres of highly fertile agricultural
land. Known especially for its wine, the Tri-Valley has
been growing grapes since the 1840s. More than 50
wineries are located in the Tri-Valley, including the
nation's oldest continuously operated family -owned
winery, Wente Vineyards. Founded in 1883, it operates
3,000 acres in the Livermore Valley. With 400,000
visitors each year, Wente Vineyards is a good example
of Tri-Valley businesses adapting to provide more
entertainment and cultural activities as the region grows
and attracts more residents and visitors from across the
Bay Area. At its Livermore location, the winery offers
a golf course, wine tours, restaurants, concerts, and a
variety of other special events and activities.
Wente Vineyards expects the Tri-Valley's wine industry
to grow substantially in the next 20 years. As demand
for California's wine continues to increase, wineries will
need to expand, and there is space for them to do so in
the Tri-Valley. The area is poised to capture agricultural
growth, as the National Resource Conservation Service
identified 50,000 acres outside of the five cities' general
plans that would support intensive agriculture.
Part of the success of the. preservation of agricultural
lands in the Tri-Valley is due to the Tri-Valley
Conservancy. Formerly called the South Livermore
Valley Agricultural Land Trust, the organization was
formed in 1987 to protect the area's agricultural
land. It created a comprehensive South Livermore
Valley Area Plan, which put in place incentives to
invest in winegrowing, as well as regulations to limit
development on the land. In 2003, it became the Tri-
Valley Conservancy and expanded its reach to a larger
geographic area, with a broader mission of open space
preservation.
21
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ways on several occasions to maker
success as possible, One such exaf,
"smart poles" by installing small c�
owned by Hacienda in the public rigC
cell coverage in the area. Hacienda hay 4.
bring in fiber optic infrastructure to im
and residents. These initiatives will pr<,
residents with state-of-the-art serum
As a truly mixed -use development,,
model for successful future growth rf �;
construction of three major residential cY
building a'development of 94 towtl� „
completed projects are comprised of net
providing a great option for younger wor
vibrant area near transit. With a n
Hacienda subsidizes Wheels bt►s
and it runs a free interred nC
M1.
Innovation Defines the Tri-Valley"s Past
and its Path Forward
The key characteristic of the Tri-Valley and a crucial
element in its story of economic success is the regions
history of innovation. This history has been helped
by an ecosystem of entrepreneurship and discovery,
built around collaboration between the national labs,
business leaders, governmental bodies, educational
partners, and civic leaders.
National• • e
Ecosystem
Around the country, the network of national laboratories
has historically been viewed as closed -door facilities
whose reach into the local community has been
somewhat limited. In the Tri-Valley, the only area of
the country to be home to two major neighboring
laboratories, a sense of collaboration between the
labs, civic leaders, and the business community has
made these research institutions an integral part of
the economy. Both laboratories have taken a stake in
growing the innovation economy of the area, and a
great deal of the Tri-Valley's innovation has been spurred
by technologies first researched at the national labs. The
overall Tri-Valley economy has also benefited as the labs
have brought a great number of workers with advanced
degrees to the region, some of whom have gone on to
found their own companies.
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL)
has been a mainstay in the Tri-Valley for more than 65
years. As a world leader in the advancement of science
and technology, it has helped build the region into a
center of innovation. With an annual budget of around
$1.7 billion, and more than 6,500 employees —half of
whom live in the sphere of the Tri-Valley—LLNL is a
powerhouse of economic activity and innovation for the
region. Each day, it has 10,000 people on site (including
contractors).
LLNUs primary role is to ensure the safety, security,
and reliability of the U.S. nuclear stockpile. However,
its broader mission also includes developing cutting -
edge science and technology to address a broad range
of future challenges to national security and global
stability. Its technologies have been used to achieve
breakthroughs in counterterrorism and nonproliferation,
defense and intelligence, and energy and environmental
security. It hosts a number of unique, world -class
facilities, including the National Ignition Facility —the
largest laser facility in the world —and the Livermore
Computing Complex —home to some of the fastest
computers in the world. LLNL works hard to ensure that
its inventions make it to market and that its activities
foster innovation throughout the Tri-Valley.
25
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
LLNUs innovation initiatives include its Innovation
and Partnerships Office (IPO) and Livermore Valley
Open Campus (LVOC), which are focused on public -
private partnerships and growing high-tech business
opportunities in the Tri-Valley and greater Bay Area.
These goals are enhanced by relationships with
regional business -supporting organizations such as the
Bay Area Council and Bay Area Science & Innovation
Consortium, Silicon Valley Leadership Group, Innovation
Tri-Valley Leadership Group, and East Bay Economic
Development Alliance.
One of LLNUs Innovation and Partnerships Office's main
functions is to license technologies invented at the lab
for commercial use. Its portfolio has commercial licenses
with more than 100 companies in the United States and
worldwide, including 52 in California. Licensing and
royalty income from these relationships has reached as
high as $10 million in recent years, with a good portion
of that remaining in California. This has represented
more than $300 million in annual sales of products
based on LLNL technologies, which supports the Tri-
Valley and regional economies.
LLNUs partnerships with businesses have been a catalyst
for discovery and innovation in the Tri-Valley. One such
example is Metal Improvement Company, a subsidiary
of Curtiss-Wright Surface Technologies located in
Livermore, which teamed with the lab to develop a new
type of treatment to increase the durability of metals.
Similarly, IDES in Pleasanton —a company that produces
dynamic transmission electron microscopes —was
founded by a scientist who did Ph.D. research at LLNL.
LLNL was ranked 25th in Reuters' list of the world's most
innovative research institutions in 2017. Its success at
commercialization and technology transfer has been
helped by its joint National Labs Entrepreneurship
Academy, which is also hosted by Sandia —a three-
day entrepreneurship business training course for its
scientists and engineers. This has helped prepare the
lab's scientists to pitch their technology to businesses
and even start their own companies.
26
Sandia National Laboratory is also a driving force in
the Tri-Valley economy. It shares a similar mission to
LLNL, aiming to protect global stability by creating
technology that solves a variety of national security
problems. It employs about 1,200 people and draws
highly -educated workers to the Tri-Valley.
Sandia partners with LLNL on a variety of innovative
programs such as the entrepreneurship academy and
the Livermore Valley Open Campus. It has achieved a
great deal of success in commercializing its technology,
having been associated with the creation of 95 new
companies since 1994. Having recently celebrated
its 60th anniversary, Sandia has been a key player in
building the Tri-Valley region into what it is today.
In 2017, 152 new patents were issued for Sandia
technologies, and the lab had 597 active commercial
licenses in place. In addition, Sandia has a wide-ranging
impact on the local economy through its interaction with
the community. It has encouraged STEM education by
holding programs like Family Science Nights. Sandia
is currently one of the pilot labs for the Department of
Energy's Small Business Vouchers program, through
which clean energy businesses are given vouchers to
access lab facilities, work with lab experts, and license
technologies.
Sandia, as well as LLNL, will likely be a large force for
increased employment in the Tri-Valley in coming years.
Due to a combination of retirements and the need to
increase its investment in modernizing and maintaining
the weapons stockpile, Sandia will need to hire at least
250 people in the next three to five years. At LLNL,
leadership expects to hire 600 to 800 people each year
for the next five years, which comes on top of 3,000 new
hires in the last four years alone.
Technologieso
• 2 �,.In
A large number of companies have seen a great deal of
success from licensing LLNL and Sandia technologies.
Some recent highlights include:
Opcondys, Inc. licensed the technology for the
opticondistor from LLNL. Its technical team is led
by the inventor of the technology, which allows for
fast electrical switching at extremely high voltages.
Established in 2014, Opcondys has won competitive
.funding awards totaling several million dollars.
EVOQ Therapeutics has licensed LLNL's
nanolipoprotein particles technology for cancer
immunotherapy. The technology shows great
potential for delivering cancer nano -vaccines
more effectively using the body's own immune
system, and it could revolutionize treatment. EVOQ
is currently testing clinical applications of the
technology and results have been promising.
® Sandstone Diagnostics was created by Sandia
scientists who developed technology for the Trak
Male Fertility Testing System. They have since
licensed the technology from Sandia, and the
at-home male fertility testing product has been
approved by the FDA and is patent -pending.
i s/ 'RMIORE VALLEY OPEN ICAM °US_;
In an effort to increase collaboration with businesses
and create more opportunities for discovery and
commercialization of technology, LLNL and Sandia
partnered to create the previously mentioned LVOC.
Located along the eastern boundaries of the two
T I- ALLE AT A GLANCE
In an effort to both reduce the job gap in technology
occupations in the Tri-Valley area and provide
employment to veterans returning from service,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Las Positas
College, the Alameda County Workforce Investment
Board, and Growth Sector partnered in 2014 to form the
Tri-Valley Rising 2018
labs' adjoining sites, the LVOC is a novel venue where
researchers from private industry and academia can
collaborate with laboratory personnel. Because the
work being done in the open campus is not classified,
the space is well -suited for technology transfer and
collaboration with industry partners. It also draws young
scientists through networking events and entertainment.
The first two LLNL facilities based in the LVOC are
the High Performance Computing Innovation Center
(HPCIC) and the Advanced Manufacturing Laboratory
(AML). The HPCIC opened in 2010 and provides
companies with access to LLNL's supercomputers,
software and domain expertise, as well as guidance
on the application of advanced computing
technologies. Completed in March of 2018, the AM
is a 13,700-square-foot facility for developing next -
generation materials and manufacturing technologies,
and it serves as a focal point for research collaborations
with industry and academia.
On the Sandia side, facilities in the LVOC include
the Combustion Research Facility, the Center
for Infrastructure Research and Innovation, the
Cybersecurity Technologies Research Laboratory, and
the Biotech Collaboration Center. In 2013, Sandia
collaborated with Cool Earth Solar to create the first
public -private partnership on the LVOC, forming a five-
year cooperative research and development agreement
to work to make solar energy more affordable and
accessible.
Vets to Tech program. The initiative creates a pipeline
for veteran students at Las Positas College to explore
engineering occupations and receive skills training,
mentorship, and paid internships. The program uses a
cohort model, through which a group of enrollees can
earn a two-year degree in mechanical engineering.
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
Cycle °r rep Warship
Propels Creation of New
Tri-Valley Businesses
The Tri-Valley's innovative history has also been fueled
by a cycle of entrepreneurship, in which top people
leave successful companies or the laboratories and
then go on to found new businesses in a similar sector.
This creates an ecosystem of innovation, in which new
scientists and entrepreneurs have access to increased
resources and opportunities for collaboration.
One such cycle began with the founding of the
Pleasanton company QuantaLife:
• One of QuantaLife's founders, Bill Colston,
co -invented a digital polymerase chain reaction
technology for genetic analysis while working at
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Colston
left the lab to start QuantaLife, growing the
company from four founders in 2008 to more than
60 employees by 2011.
• QuantaLife was acquired by Bio-Rad in 2011 for
$162 million. Following his success with QuantaLife,
Colston founded another company called
HealthTell, which aims to provide an early detection
diagnostic platform for complex diseases. Based
in San Ramon, HealthTell has raised $45 million in
funding.'
• After QuantaLife's acquisition, co-founders Ben
Hindson and Kevin Ness and VP of Applications
Serge Saxonov went on to create 10x Genomics,
a DNA sequencing company headquartered in
Pleasanton. It has raised over $100 million in equity
and employs over 200 people.'
This sort of exponential growth in Tri-Valley companies
can also be seen in the story of PeopleSoft, which was
acquired by Oracle in 2005. Afterward, founders and
top team members went on to create major companies
like Workday and Veeva Systems, both headquartered
in Pleasanton. This phenomenon has created a web
of entrepreneurs that are now providing expertise and
resources to emerging entrepreneurs.
A similarly beneficial phenomenon in the Tri-Valley
business environment is that innovative companies that
28
move there often stay in the Tri-Valley once they achieve
success, continuing to add value to the area:
• One example is Sybase, an enterprise software and
services company that was founded in Berkeley in
1984 but moved its world headquarters to Dublin
in 2002. It was acquired by SAP in 2010 for $5.8
billion. After the acquisition, SAP stayed in the
Dublin location until 2017, when it moved to a new
office in San Ramon. As such, the previous Sybase
jobs have stayed in the Tri-Valley and the company
has doubled down on its original investment.
® The region has also benefitted in other ways from
SAP's decision to stay in the Tri-Valley. SAP holds
an annual Academy for Early Talent in San Ramon,
through which recent college graduates from around
the world prepare for a career in sales. The program
is advantageous to the Tri-Valley in that it exposes
a host of bright young people to the vibrant and
innovative region, hopefully encouraging them to
stay and contribute their talent.
Given the amount of talent in the Tri-Valley and a
growing sense of entrepreneurialism that has come out
of the national laboratories and the employees at many
of the region's tech -based companies, stakeholders in
the Tri-Valley have seen a clear need to cultivate and
grow this innovation ecosystem.
We highlight two key examples of institutions in the Tri-
Valley that foster these entrepreneurial networks:
i-(3 'i'
The Tri-Valley's innovation ecosystem is embodied by
i-GATE, a nonprofit dedicated to building a thriving
startup community in the Tri-Valley. i-GATE is unique in
that it came about as a partnership between four Tri-
Valley cities as well as the national labs.
One of i-GATE's main activities is operating The Switch,
an incubator and co -working space for entrepreneurs
and startups. Located in Livermore, The Switch currently
has 10 companies in residence, most of which are in
the life sciences industry. Its primary functions are to
help entrepreneurs build valuable peer relationships
and to provide mentorship to startups. Startups at The
Switch benefit from i-GATE's ties to local entrepreneur
and investor networks, but they have had no trouble
accessing capital on their own. The Switch is now on
its third location, having tripled its square footage in its
most recent move to a prominent space in downtown
Livermore. Also in the same building is Switch Labs, a
9,000-foot industrial space for hard tech companies.
One of i-GATE's biggest success stories is POC Medical
Systems, which was incubated there in its early days.
Founded in 2013 by Sanjeev Saxena, the company
created a platform for rapid, blood -based, point -of -
care breast cancer screening to be used around the
world, especially in regions where women do not have
access to affordable, established screening methods.
POC has since attracted a great deal of support, raising
$21 million in Series A funding for clinical beta testing
and commercialization of its technology.10 Boosted by
the resources and support it received from i-GATE,
POC now occupies a 24,000-square foot research and
manufacturing facility in Livermore.
i-GATE also supports local innovation by hosting the
NextTech Speaker Series and Tri-Valley Tech Connect.
The inaugural Tri-Valley Tech Connect event took
place in February 2018, hosted in cooperation with
the Innovation Tri-Valley Leadership Group. It brought
together leading Tri-Valley tech companies and local
professionals in a career fair that aimed to connect
talented Tri-Valley residents with employers in their own
community.
Tri-Valley companies were able to highlight the
advantages of a culture of work -life balance and a much
shorter commute than the two-hour drive to Silicon
Valley. Participating employers included Veeva Systems,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Sandia
National Laboratories, Deep Sentinel, Unchained Labs,
10x Genomics, Title 21 Health Solutions, S2 Genomics,
Convergence CT, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Google
Cloud, Lam Research, Mom Relaunch, and Northland
Controls. Over 300 local professionals attended,
revealing a strong interest among Tri-Valley residents in
working at companies close to home.
Bis iop RANCH INTELLIGEAR,E INNOVATION
ACCELERATOR (BRIIA)
Where i-GATE fills the Tri-Valley's need for an incubator -
style program, BRIIA fills the need for a more traditional
Tri-Valley Rising 2018
and structured accelerator program. Bishop Ranch
launched its accelerator for machine learning and
artificial intelligence (AI) companies in the fall of 2017,
bringing a new wave of innovative talent and resources
to the Tri-Valley and adding to the region's burgeoning
entrepreneurial ecosystem.
BRIIA's first -ever cohort of entrepreneurs began
the 12-week program in September 2017, after the
accelerator received applications from all over the
world. Though BRIIA's initial aim was to provide
resources for local innovators, it ended up also serving
as a magnet to the Tri-Valley for entrepreneurs from
a variety of places. Of the five companies in BRIIA's
first cohort, only one was from the Tri-Valley, with two
from elsewhere in the Bay Area and two from out of
state. BRIIA's second cohort was more local, with four
companies from the Tri-Valley and two from other
parts of the Bay Area. Part of the program's draw for
entrepreneurs outside of the Tri-Valley has been its
exclusive focus on AI and machine learning —something
that few other accelerators share.
As a member of the Global Accelerator Network, BRIIA
has brought a global scale to the Tri-Valley startup
scene. The network has 88 members from around the
world that share mentors and resources, providing BRIIA
and its companies with global reach. BRIIA alone has a
network of 42 mentors, and 550 investors know about
BRIIA-60 of whom came to its first Demo Day.
BRIIA contributes to the Tri-Valley's ecosystem of
innovation not just through its accelerator program,
but also through its coworking space. Of the 90 seats
in its Bishop Ranch -based space, 70 are set aside
for a coworking community of tech entrepreneurs.
The environment is designed to foster spontaneous
collisions between innovators, with an aim of facilitating
connection, inspiration, and collaboration. To this
end, BRIIA also puts on a variety of events for local
entrepreneurs, such as the San Ramon Hackathon,
One BRIIA company that has seen particular success
is Datazoom. An alumni of the first accelerator
cohort, Datazoom uses machine learning to help
content distributors better collect data to personalize
and improve the monetization of the video viewing
experience. It has closed funding of around $700,000.
29
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
Investment in Startups and
Growing Businesses
The new companies being built in the Tri-Valley have
taken advantage of the area's proximity to Silicon Valley
to make themselves prime candidates for venture
capital investment. Data on the flow of venture capital
and private equity into Tri-Valley companies reveal that
these companies have had varying degrees of success
in attracting investment. From 2007 to 2017, Tri-Valley
companies received over $4 billion in venture capital
investment, and just since 2015 they have received $1
billion. For comparison, companies located in the Silicon
Valley region garnered over $2.6 billion in venture
capital investment in the fourth quarter of 2017 alone.
The majority of this Tri-Valley investment has been
in software companies, companies that manufacture
Industry
Software
Medical Instruments
Pharmaceutical and Chemical Products
Non -Software Business Services
medical instruments, companies that produce chemical
and pharmaceutical products, and companies that
provide business services other than software. Other
major recipients of investment have been electronic
equipment, environmental quality and housing,
engineering and management services, financial
institutions, educational services, and health services
companies.
The companies that received the largest rounds of
funding were SFJ Pharmaceuticals, Access Information
Management, ServiceMax, Fulcrum Bioenergy,
Accela, IntegenX, NeoTract, and 10X Genomics. The
life sciences industry in particular attracted a great deal
of investment. In the past 10 years, medical device,
pharmaceutical, and life sciences companies in the
region have received over $1 billion in venture capital
and private equity.
Software companies also received over $1 billion
in private investment, with Accela—a provider of
Amount Invested (in millions)
$373
2012-2017
$774
$371
$339
$224
$400
$182 ............................
$375
$279
$51
$127
$60
$36
$78
$53
$0
$47
Personal and Health Services $35
Retail $0
Communications $8
Source: Thomson Reuters
Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute
30
$60
$100
$b
$9
$34
$10
Total
$1,146
$710
$624;
$557
$330
$187
$114
$113
$100
$53
$44.
$34
Tri-Valley Rising 2018
Number ®f Annual Venture Capital Deals per Ten Thousand Residents
Tri-Val ley Sari Diego v; Sacramento
'1.4
'1.2
i
1
0.8
0.6
I
,
ti.,xy
0.4
0.2
0.0
2007
2008 2009 2010
2011
Source: Thomson Reuters; PwC MoneyTree Report Q3 2017
Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute
cloud -based software for governments that has since
been acquired by Berkshire Partners —raising $175
million. Workday received $180 million before its 2012
initial public offering. Companies that manufacture
semiconductors and electronic devices were another
group that attracted large investments, garnering over
$325 million in the past 10 years.
Though not captured in our data on Tri-Valley-
headquartered companies, venture capital investment
has been allowing Bay Area -headquartered companies
to expand into the Tri-Valley. One such example is
Gritstone Oncology, which completed a $92.7 million
Series B funding round in September 2017. Part of the
investment supported the construction of the company's
43,Q00 square -foot manufacturing facility in Pleasanton,
where Gritstone now continues to advance its precision
cancer immunotherapy research.
While Silicon Valley venture capital activity is much
larger than in the Tri-Valley, the Tri-Valley holds its own
among other California regions, especially in terms
of number of deals per resident. Since 2007, the Tri-
Valley has had more deals per 10,000 residents than
Sacramento in every year but 2013, and more than San
Diego in most years as well. In 2008, the Tri-Valley's
highest year for investment, there were 1.55 deals per
10,000 residents in the Tri-Valley, compared to only 0.77
in San Diego and 0.28 in Sacramento.
We have highlighted the Tri-Valley's large
companies —many with a presence at Bishop Ranch
or Hacienda —and the growing number of mid-
sized companies that have received venture capital
investment. However, the Tri-Valley's next wave of
innovative companies is likely still in their infancy
stages. The vast majority of the Tri-Valley's business
establishments are small businesses with fewer than 20
employees. About 54% of all the region's businesses
have fewer than five employees, which is very similar to
the proportion of Silicon Valley businesses with fewer
than five employees.
31
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
Tri-VaHey Business Establishments by Number of Employees
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns: Zip Code Business Patterns by Employment Size Class
Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute
Spotlight Tri"Nalley Ventures
Silicon Valley investors are increasingly turning their
sights toward the Tri-Valley, but the area has also
cultivated its own source of venture capital. One such
example is Tri-Valley Ventures, a pooled investment
fund that targets experienced entrepreneurs in the Tri-
Valley region for its investments.
The firm's partners utilize their local presence and
experience to find promising Tri-Valley startups to invest
in. As well as providing capital, they also leverage their
ties to a variety of Tri-Valley firms to serve as a bridge
between startups and other companies and investors.
Some of the local startups that Tri-Valley Ventures
initially invested in are:
® Swarmsales, provider of sales -as -a -service
marketplace software;
Deep Sentinel, a home security company; and
32
Numberof
employees:
0 1, 000+
250-999
w 50.249
■ 20-49
M 5-19
■1-4
AEye, a vision hardware and software company for
autonomous vehicles.
The story of AEye is particularly representative of
the way in which the different elements of the Tri-
Valley's innovation ecosystem work together to create
entrepreneurial success and bring opportunities to
the region. Research on AEye's technology originally
began at the national labs, the company was incubated
at i-GATE, and then it moved to commercial space in
Pleasanton. AEye has developed cutting -edge vision
sensing technology for autonomous vehicles, and in
June 2017 it announced a $16 million Series A funding
round that included investments from Kleiner Perkins
Caufield & Byers, Airbus Ventures, Intel Capital, and
Tyche Partners. Early investment from Tri-Valley Ventures
helped AEye achieve its success, as did the startup's ties
to the region's many other innovation assets.
From Start-up to Scale -up.
Competing Nationaill
The previous sections have outlined many of the strengths of the
Tri-Valley, and how it has successfully competed against other
regional economic centers in San Francisco and Silicon Valley.
As the Tri-Valley continues on its growth trajectory, it will begin
to compete more with hubs of innovation across the country for
jobs. In this section, we will examine how the Tri-Valley compares
to other regions such as Austin, Boston, Nashville, Portland, and
Raleigh -Durham. While these places are significantly larger in
population and reach when compared to the Tri-Valley, they will
increasingly be viewed as a competitive peer set.
33
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
Educational Attainment of High -Growth Regions, 2016
M High School or Less Some College or Associate's i Bachelor's Degree M Graduate or Professional Degree
100%
v0 i
i0 i
60
40
30
20
10%
0%
Tri-Valley Austin Boston Nashville Portland Raleigh -Durham Silicon Valley
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey one-year estimates
Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute
Part of the Tri-Valley's competitive edge comes from its highly
concentrated talent pool. While 60% of adult Tri-Valley residents have
a bachelor's degree or higher, only 44% in the Raleigh -Durham -Chapel
Hill Research Triangle do. Similarly, only 39% of the residents of Greater
Portland do.
34
Tri-Valley
Austin
Boston
Nashville
Portland
Raleigh -Durham x r &,,; $90,846
Silicon Valley
$141,591
$162,318
$137,946
$145,592
$ 224, 304
Tri-Valley Rising 2018
$269,664
$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns
Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute
Tri-Valley workers are also highly productive compared to these
other areas. Though the Tri-Valley has employment of under 200,000
workers, its regional GDP in 2016 was $42 billion. Only three
other comparison regions have employment of under 1 million —
Portland (979,000), Nashville (798,000), and Austin (774,000). Of the
comparison regions, the Tri-Valley's GDP per worker is only lower only
than Silicon Valley's, and higher than the rest of the peer set.
35
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
140%
135%
130%
125%
105%
100%
95
90
Percentage Employment GrowthSince 2006
-—Tri-Valley Austin Boston Nashville Portland - —Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill -Silicon Valley
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages; California Economic Development Department
Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute
The Tri-Valley also stands out among economically vibrant regions for its
job growth. The area's employment grew more quickly from 2006 to 2016
than in any of the other six regions, at 35% growth. Of the comparison
regions, the next highest employment growth occurred in Austin, at 33%,
and after that in Nashville, at 20%. The Tri-Valley has also experienced a
strong recovery from the recession, with employment growth of 24% from
2010-2016, slower only than Austin and Nashville.
36
Tri-Valley Rising 2018
Percentage of Regional Emplloyment in High -Tech Sectors, 2017
25%
20%
15%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute
HIGH-TECH EMPLOYMENT CONCENTRATION:
Approximately 19% of Tri-Valley jobs are in high-tech sectors as defined
by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This high concentration of these high -
wage, fast-growing jobs is a large part of the reason why the Tri-Valley
economy has seen so much recent success. Of the peer region set, only
Boston comes close to the Tri-Valley's concentration of high-tech jobs,
while fast-growing economies in Austin and Nashville are more reliant on
local -population -serving jobs in government, education, and healthcare.
37
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
$40
$35
$32.04
$30
$2 5
$20
$15
$10
Office Space Average Rent per Square Foot, 2017
$37.34 $36.52
$25.46
$5
$0
Tri-Valley
Austin
Boston
Nashville
Source: Colliers International Research and Forecast Reports; Jones Lang LaSalle United
States Office Outlook
Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute
$28.31
$21 .86
Portland Raleigh -Durham
Commercial real estate is significantly less expensive in the Tri-Valley
than in much of the rest of the Bay Area. Though its office space is
cheaper than Austin's or Boston's, the Tri-Valley is more expensive than
Nashville, Portland, and the Raleigh -Durham area. The Tri-Valley still
has a strong local advantage when it comes to companies wanting
to open offices in the Bay Area region, but it faces pressure from
innovation centers like Portland and the Raleigh -Durham Research
Triangle that can offer more affordable office space.
Tri-Valley Rising 2018
—Tri-Valley Austin, TX 1 11 -Boston, MA Nashville, TN —Portland, OR °Raleigh -Durham, NC
$1,000,000
$900,000
"4 00,000
$ 700, 000
$600,000
$500,000
Source; Zillow Research
Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute
HOUSINC AFFORDABILITY-,
The median home value in the Tri-Valley is more than twice as high as
it is in the Boston area, and more than three times as high as in the
Austin area. Having such a high cost of living impacts the ability of
Tri-Valley companies to hire, since talented people may not want to
move to such an expensive area when they have other options. With a
median home value of over $900,000, the Tri-Valley is a difficult place
to afford for even middle-class families.
39
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
Percent of Residents with Commutes Under 30 Minutes, 2016
70
60 %
50 %
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Tri-Valley Austin
u
Boston
Nashville Portland Raleigh -Durham Silicon Valley
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey Five -Year Estimates
Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute
While the Tri-Valley's mix of employment opportunities and residential
development lends itself well to short commutes, many Tri-Valley
residents are commuting into San Francisco and Silicon Valley each
day. Additionally, fast transit options in the area are limited, meaning
that half of all residents have commutes over 30 minutes in duration.
Commute times in Austin, Nashville, Portland, and Raleigh -Durham are
generally shorter given employment concentrations in downtown areas
in these regions and dense downtown housing development.
40
Confronting
Future Economic Development
Part of the Tri-Valley's past success has been in its
ability to draw in Bay Area residents with the promise of
more affordable housing options and a relatively short
commute to work. However, as the Tri-Valley continues
to prosper, some of the same challenges that face the
rest of the Bay Area —housing, transportation, and
workforce availability — are already beginning to hinder
the Tri-Valley's ability to grow. As the Tri-Valley becomes
more and more integrated with the core of the Bay
Area, it becomes less immune to the larger region's
challenges. Thus, it will be vitally important for the Tri-
Valley to maintain its livability by proactively addressing
these issues. Key among them are:
Rising costs of housing as demand surges faster
than supply
Increases in road traffic
Greater strain on public transit systems
Housing Development is Needed
toStem
Rise in
Cost of Living
As housing costs in the Tri-Valley have continued their
rise, wages have generally followed pace. Since 2007,
average wages in the Tri-Valley increased by 25%,
and the cost of living increased by 26%. The two have
grown at similar rates for most years since 2007. In San
Francisco, by contrast, growth in wages did not catch up
with the growth in cost of living until recently.
Though the growing cost of living can be made up
for with higher wages in the Tri-Valley, the high barrier
to entry can deter those from outside of the Bay Area
that may be looking to move in. Additionally, growth
in wages at this pace does not seem sustainable, as
companies that are competing nationally will face
significant labor cost pressures that their peers in other
regions may not. This trend may already be playing out
in 2015 and 2016 as wages in the Tri-Valley grew slightly
more slowly than the cost of living.
This trend in cost of living does show that the Tri-Valley
maintains its desirability as a place to live —both for
its access to nearby jobs but also as a gateway to San
Francisco and Silicon Valley. To keep Tri-Valley housing
relatively affordable, it will be important to ensure that
enough new units are built to keep up with demand.
The region's cities have made progress toward this
goal, though more new units are still needed. Dublin,
especially, has built a large amount of housing in recent
years; from 2007 to 2015, it issued 4,645 permits. About
9% of these were for below -market -rate (affordable
41
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
housing) units. For comparison purposes, the City of
Oakland, about seven times larger than Dublin in terms
of population, issued roughly the same number of
housing permits over the period from 2007 to 2015.
San Ramon also added a fairly large number of new
housing units, 22% of which were below market -rate.
For the period from 2007 to 2014, Dublin and San
Ramon were the cities with the seventh- and eighth -
largest number of housing permits issued in the entire
Bay Area. Other than Milpitas, the cities that issued
more housing permits were all much larger than Dublin
and San Ramon, with populations over 100,000.
Approximately 27% of all housing permits issued in
Alameda County and Contra Costa County between
2007 and 2015 came from the Tri-Valley, though only
17% of the jobs in the two counties are located in the
area. The Tri-Valley issued a total of 13,591 housing
permits from 2007 to 2016, while adding about 34,400
40 %
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
42
jobs over the same time period. As a comparison,
nearby San Joaquin County permitted 13,617 housing
units during that time period, while adding 14,500
jobs —a jobs -to -housing balance that has pushed many
San Joaquin residents to commute over the Altamont
Pass. Though the Tri-Valley added fewer housing units
relative to jobs than San Joaquin County, it added far
more than San Francisco, which had a jobs -to -housing
ratio around 5:1 for the same time period.
Though the Tri-Valley has added a fairly large amount of
housing in recent years compared to other parts of the
Bay Area, it has not permitted nearly as many housing
units as it is projected to need to keep up with demand.
The state of California mandates that each jurisdiction
identifies a Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA),
or the number of housing units it must accommodate
over a given time period, based on population
projections. For the Tri-Valley, this number was 14,047
new units from 2007 to 2014.
Percent Mcrease in Cost of Living and average Wages
—Tri-Valley Cost of Living Tri-Valley Wages —San Francisco Cost of Living San Francisco Wages
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index; Zillow Home Value Index; California Employment Development Department
Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute
Tri-Valley Rising 2018
Jobs Added vs. Housing Units Permitted,lJ 7 - L_ lam✓' 4
200,364
200,000
150,000
10 0, 000
146,787
28,813
13,617 14,549
San Francisco
San Joaquin County
Note: San Joaquin County data goes only to 201 S
Source: Association of Bay Area Governments, Regional Housing Need Allocation Progress Reports; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development,
State of the Cities Data Systems; Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages; California Employment Development
Department; U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey
Analysis: BayArea Council Economic Institute
Tri-Valley cities issued permits for 9,127 new
housing units from 2007 to 2014, which was about
65% of its total RHNA. The region did quite well in
accommodating the need for market -rate housing,
permitting more than 200% of its market -rate RHNA.
However, it was less successful in building adequate
affordable housing. The Tri-Valley issued permits for
1,768 below -market -rate units, meeting only about 17%
of its RHNA for that category.
Failure to fully meet RHNA needs for the 2007-2014
period was not a problem unique to the Tri-Valley; very
few California jurisdictions did. A combination of factors
including the recession and loss of redevelopment funds
for affordable housing made it especially difficult to
produce enough units. The Tri-Valley surpassed many
jurisdictions in its production of market -rate housing,
though it shared the rest of the state's challenges with
building sufficient affordable housing. With that being
said, RHNA is a less useful tool for measuring how many
housing units are needed than an analysis of a region's
jobs -to -housing balance. In order to tackle the housing
affordability challenge, the Tri-Valley will need to keep
pace with its job creation by building more housing at a
variety of sizes and affordability levels.
Transportation
Bottleneck
for the Tri-Valley's
Growth
The increasing cost of Bay Area housing has also
contributed to another of the Tri-Valley's major
challenges: transportation. As people working in the
Bay Area move to more far flung places around the
megaregion, they must travel longer distances to get
to their jobs, which are still largely located in the core
employment hubs of the area.
43
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
Transportation connectivity continues to be one of the
key public policy issues for the Tri-Valley in order for it
to sustain its economic growth trajectory. Even with a
highly -educated workforce and a growing innovation
ecosystem, the Tri-Valley remains somewhat isolated
from other core job centers in the Bay Area.
HIGHWAY CONGESTION: People commute
through the Tri-Valley to and from San Francisco,
the East Bay, Silicon Valley, and San Joaquin Valley.
Additionally, a significant number of Tri-Valley residents
commute to San Francisco and Silicon Valley, with
about 10,000 commuting to San Francisco and 23,000
commuting to Silicon Valley. More importantly, the
number of commuters traveling through the Tri-
Valley from the Northern San Joaquin Valley (San
Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Merced counties) has grown
as the population of that area has increased. In 2016,
megaregional commuters from the Northern San
Joaquin Valley totaled 82,723, and showed growth
of 27.4% since 2013. Those who make this commute
mainly drive and utilize 1-580.
44
Megaregional Commuters and Percentage
Change from 2013 to 2016
Leke Sutter �
1 �
vA N.P. .x..
Data Source: American Community
Survey, one-year estimates, 2016
Analyeta: Bay Area Council Economic
Institute
Average Daisy Vehicle Trips. Top 4 Busiest Bay Area Gateway Corridors
San Joaquin to Alameda ®Contra Costa to San JoaquinSanta Clara to Santa Cruz/San Benito Solano to Yolo
250,000
200,000
7
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Metropolitan Transportation Commission, Vital Signs
Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute
Of all Bay Area gateway corridors, 1-580 connecting
Alameda and San Joaquin counties and cutting through
the Tri-Valley experienced the greatest increase in
vehicle traffic in the two most recent years of data
available. 1-580 added 18,100 daily vehicle trips just
from 2014 to 2016. With these additional trips, several
segments of 1-580 in the Tri-Valley have been deemed
"congested" by the Alameda County Transportation
Commission, meaning that they have a level of service
of F—the worst possible rating. Contra Costa County's
1-680 also experiences serious congestion through the
Tri-Valley. In 2016, the evening northbound commute
on the portion of the freeway between San Ramon and
Pleasant Hill ranked among the top 10 most congested
locations in the Bay Area."
6,000
5,000
ro
0 4,000
"o
D
0
U 3,000
L
N
T
�f6
r)
rn 2,000
iv
Q
1,000
Tri-Valley Rising 2018
This amount of traffic not only is a deterrent for
businesses that might be interested in locating in the
Tri-Valley, it is also a drag on productivity as Tri-Valley
commuters spend a significant amount of time delayed
by traffic. Drivers on the stretch of 1-580 between the
San Joaquin County -Alameda County border and San
Ramon Road spent a collective total of over 5,000 hours
stuck in traffic during an average day during 2017, and
traffic is equally as bad in the westbound A.M. peak
period as it is in the eastbound P.M. peak period. The
situation is no better on 1-680, where drivers between El
Cerro Boulevard and Sunol Boulevard spent 3,635 hours
in delayed traffic on the average day, In the northbound
direction, the average daily vehicle hours of delay on
1-680 grew by nearly 60% between 2013 and 2017.
Average Daily Vehicle Hours ®f Delay
Measured as Highway Travel at Speeds Below 60 MPH
2012
2013
0 1-580 East a 1-580 West
Source: California Department of Transportation, Caltrans Performance Measurement System
Analysis: BayArea Council Economic Institute
2016
2017
45
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
CountyGrowth in San Joaquin
Roads Has Impact on
As housing becomes increasingly expensive in the core
of the Bay Area, population has migrated farther and
farther east. The Tri-Valley has absorbed some of this
population growth, but as it becomes more expensive,
more people are choosing San Joaquin County for
its affordable proximity to the Bay Area. San Joaquin
County's population has grown at about the same
rate as the Tri-Valley since 2010, though some of its
commuter towns have grown very rapidly, especially
those that are still being built. Mountain House, for
example, grew by 70% from 2010 to 201 S.
As more people move to the more affordable cities and
towns of San Joaquin County, many still work in the job
centers in the core of the Bay Area and must commute
long distances, either on public transportation or on
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
46
1-580. Many work in the Tri-Valley, with some continuing
on to Oakland, San Francisco, or Silicon Valley. About
26% of all San Joaquin County residents who work
outside their homes commute to jobs in the Bay Area.
Over the past eight years, the largest increases in
commuters coming from San Joaquin County occurred
in Santa Clara and Alameda. From 2008 to 2016, the
number of commuters to Santa Clara County increased
by half. For Alameda County, the number increased by
almost a third. With transit connectivity between San
Joaquin County and the Tri-Valley relatively limited to
four daily round trips on the Altamont Corridor Express
train, these commuters will continue to put pressure on
roadways as their numbers rise.
San Joaquin County Residents Commuting to the Bay Area
2008 2016
3
5 r
Santa Clara San Francisco San Mateo
Located just over the Altamont Pass from Livermore, the
City of Tracy serves as a growing gateway community
between the Tri-Valley and the San Joaquin Valley.
Tracy's population grew by 7.1%from 2012 to 2017,
faster than San Joaquin County as a whole.12 The city
has also seen very strong job growth, increasing its jobs
numbers by 9% from 2010 to 2015, the most recent
year that data is available.13 Some of this job growth
is tied to the aggressive construction development of
light industrial and manufacturing buildings that has
happened in Tracy over the past few years.
The median home value in Tracy is $460,000, compared
to a median of $890,000 for the nine -county Bay Area.14
As it is much more affordable to buy a home in Tracy
than it is in the core of the Bay Area, many people
commute from Tracy to job hubs in the Tri-Valley,
especially in Livermore, which is only 20 miles away.15
A Regional Commuter Workforce Survey conducted by
Prologis found that Tracy respondents' work locations
were most heavily concentrated in the Tri-Valley,
Tri-Valley Rising 2018
especially in Livermore. The first and third most popular
work locations were Livermore and Pleasanton. Very few
respondents worked in the Central Valley, meaning that
a large number of commuters from Tracy are coming
over the Altamont Pass on 1-580 and through the Tri-
Valley to get to work, even if they do not work in the
Tri-Valley itself. Of these respondents, 69% drive alone
to work, and 19% take the ACE train.
The availability of industrial space is another channel
through which Tracy is connected to the Tri-Valley;
companies in the Tri-Valley are able to locate their
industrial operations nearby in Tracy. Thermo Fisher
Scientific, for example, has locations in Pleasanton,
Livermore, and Tracy. Other companies that have
opened facilities in Tracy include Amazon, Medline,
Contract Metal Products, Zinus Furniture, DHL, and
Synnex. Entrepreneurial activity is happening in Tracy,
too. Skyrise—a San Francisco -based startup that aims
to build the world's first autonomous air transportation
system —began leasing a hangar at Tracy Municipal
Airport for research and development in 2017.
Employment Locations for Tracy and Mountain House Residents
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47
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
COMMUTING VIA RAIL: An alternative to driving,
Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) is utilized heavily by Tri-
Valley commuters. Increasing ridership at the Dublin/
Pleasanton station is reflected in packed parking lots in
the early morning hours —another sign that commuters
from across the Tri-Valley and the Northern San Joaquin
Valley are looking to avoid the congestion of 1-580.
In 2016, Dublin/Pleasanton had an average of 8,016
weekday exits, and West Dublin/Pleasanton had 3,650.
This compares to the BART median of 6,520.
In recent years, use of the two Tri-Valley BART stations
has grown much faster than has use of the BART system
as a whole. Since the opening of the West Dublin/
Pleasanton station in 2011, total average weekday exits
at the region's two stations have increased by 43%.
Average weekday exits for the BART system as a whole,
by contrast, increased by only 23% since 2011.
The Dublin/Pleasanton station is particularly important
because, as the end of a BART line, it serves as a
connection point for regional bus lines as well as the
9,000
Altamont Corridor Express (ACE) train. ACE brings
commuters from San Joaquin County overthe Altamont
Pass to the Bay Area. Operating four round trips per
day, the train runs from Stockton to San Jose, with
10 stops along the 86-mile route. There are three
ACE stops in the Tri-Valley: Vasco Road, downtown
Livermore, and downtown Pleasanton.
These stations serve as hubs for Central Valley
commuters working in the Bay Area, especially the
Pleasanton station, where riders can switch to a shuttle
that takes them to Dublin/Pleasanton BART. ACE
ridership has been increasing rapidly since 2009, rising
from 655,890 to nearly 1.5 million annual passengers.
With megaregional ridership up, ACE has proposed to
extend its service to Merced and then to Sacramento.
Through the new Tri-Valley-San Joaquin Valley Regional
Rail Authority, ACE and other stakeholders are studying
how ACE can better connect to the BART system to
provide a megaregional rail link, which will be discussed
in more detail in the next section.
BART Average Weekday Exits by Fiscal Year
BAIT Systern Median Dublin/Pleasanton West Dublin/Pleasanton
8,000
PAM
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000.�11 FA
2,000
1,000
0 3
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: BART Monthly Ridership Report
Analysis: Bay Area Council Economic Institute
48
THE LAST MILE PROBLEM: Though it is
relatively easy to get to many parts of the Tri-Valley
from the East Bay, San Francisco, and even San Joaquin
County on public transit, the region is faced by what
has been called the last mile problem. While many
commuters can easily travel long distances by rail, there
is often no convenient way to get from the nearest
transit stop to their final destination. Many major Tri-
Valley employers are not within walking distance of the
ACE or BART stations, which discourages commuters
from using public transit to get to their workplaces.
However, both Bishop Ranch and Hacienda business
parks have made inroads toward solving this problem.
Bishop Ranch offers free County Connection bus passes
to all employees working on its premises, including
access to express buses between Bishop Ranch and
Walnut Creek BART, Dublin/Pleasanton BART, and the
Pleasanton ACE station. Bishop Ranch also has in place
a bike share program called BRiteBikes, which allows
tenants' employees to use any of the program's bikes.
Similarly, Hacienda offers free passes to its employees
for all Wheels buses, which run rapid routes between
Hacienda and Dublin/Pleasanton BART and West
Dublin/Pleasanton BART.
TRI-VA LEY AT A. LANCE
Tri-Valley Rising 2018
Other promising solutions include ridesharing programs
and employer -operated shuttles. One example is the
City of Pleasanton's partnership with the carpooling app
Scoop to offer a discount to Pleasanton residents and
workers. Another program guarantees morning parking
at the Dublin/Pleasanton BART station for commuters
who use Scoop. The Livermore Amador Valley Transit
Authority (LAVTA) has also developed a pilot program
in Dublin that provides commuters with a discount on
shared rides within city limits through Uber and Lyft.
One particularly innovative potential solution to the last
mile problem is Bishop Ranch's pilot run of driverless
shuttles, operated in collaboration with the Contra
Costa Transportation Authority. Called the EasyMile
shuttle, it is the first driverless shuttle to be granted
permission by the California DMV to operate on public
roads. After running test drives around Bishop Ranch
for a year, the shuttle entered public roads for the first
time in March 2018. The goal is to have almost 100 of
the autonomous buses on the road by 2020.16 Similarly,
LAVTA began testing its shared autonomous vehicle
program in July 2018. The testing and first phases of
deployment will be to the Dublin/Pleasanton station
from nearby transit -oriented development.
TravelAir h h
and
l 4y
It is important to the Tri-Valley's ability to function
successfully as a business hub to have easy access to
an airport with a wide range of long -haul international
flights. Fortunately, the Tri-Valley is nearly equidistant to
Oakland International Airport and San Jose International
Airport. Though a bit farther, San Francisco International
Airport is also still close enough to be accessible.
Oakland International Airport has recently announced
large gains in international travel, which should provide
improvement to this capacity. An extension to the
International Arrivals Building in Terminal 1, completed
in summer 2017, will double the number of arriving
passengers the building can process per hour, from
300 to 600. International passenger traffic at Oakland
rose 134% from October 2015 to October 2017,11
and the airport is adding nonstop service to Paris and
Rome in 2018.11 Currently, Oakland offers flights to 14
international destinations.
The ability to use all three major Bay Area airports is one
of the many benefits of the Tri-Valley's central location,
one that not many of the region's other business
hubs share. The Tri-Valley also has its own municipal
airport in Livermore, which has a private air terminal
and hangar space. The airport is particularly useful for
visiting executives and executives from companies
headquartered within the Tri-Valley. For example,
Gillig executives use the airport to access their facility
in Livermore and the Costco regional headquarters is
located adjacent to the airport.
49
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
Demographics are e ,
Unexpectedbuti
� .v
The age demographics of the Tri-Valley differentiate
the region from nearby San Francisco and Silicon Valley.
Though about the same percentage of San Francisco
and Tri-Valley residents are under the age of 35, the
age breakdown within this group differs significantly
between the two geographies. The Tri-Valley has
far more children than San Francisco does, and San
Francisco has significantly more young adults. Silicon
Valley looks more like the Tri-Valley in terms of age,
though with 22% of its population between 20 and 34, it
still skews more toward young adults than the Tri-Valley.
100%
90 %
80%
70%
60 %
50 %
40%
30%
20 %
10%
0%
As the Tri-Valley has grown into more of an economic
hub, its population has been getting older —the reverse
of what one might expect. Although the absolute
number of people in the Tri-Valley between ages 20
and 34 has increased since 1990, it has done so more
slowly than the overall population. As current Tri-Valley
residents continue to age, the region must be careful
to grow in a way that maintains a sufficiently large local
workforce on which to draw. At Lawrence Livermore
National Laboratory, 50% of employees will be eligible
to retire in the next few years. To fill these positions will
require a large influx of new workers —from within the
Bay Area and from outside of it.
Tri-VaHey Age Demographics, aphics, 1990-2016
0-19 20-34 49 ■ 50-64 6.)
Source: IPUMS-USA, University of Minnesota
Analysis: BayArea Council Economic Institute
50
2000
L&A
2016
: �` \
;� . .
\� z
Rising t the
Challenge in Y - ` .
Although the Tri-Valley faces some of the same
challenges as the rest of the Bay Area, its leaders and
communities are taking steps to prepare for future
growth and improve the quality of life for the Tri-Valley's
residents and workers. Work will still need to be done
on planning for the future of housing and transportation,
but a variety of promising initiatives are currently
underway to seize opportunities for improvement in
these areas.
Transportation Investment and
Policy Initiatives
Since 2014, when the original version of Tri-Valley
Rising was published, the transportation challenges
in the area have been tackled on a number of fronts,
though congestion problems have only become worse
as the economy has improved. On 1-580 in the eastward
direction between the Alameda -San Joaquin county line
and the San Ramon Road exit, average daily hours of
delay grew by 20% between 2012 and 2017.
EXPRESS LANE OPENING:
The Tri-Valley has been one of the first areas to benefit
from the region's build out of an express lane network,
reflecting its role as a gateway in the Bay Area and to
the Northern California Megaregion. The Metropolitan
Transportation Commission and partner agencies are
in the process of building or converting 550 miles of
highway into express lanes. The next generation of
52
congestion management, express lanes operate in much
the same way that HOV lanes do, though they have the
added piece of allowing single drivers at a price. Using
FasTrak technology to track drivers, carpools of two
or more are able to use the lanes for free, while solo
drivers pay a toll that is set through dynamic pricing (at
peak times, the toll is higher).
Opened in February 2016, the 1-580 Express Lanes
span approximately 11 miles from Hacienda Drive
in Pleasanton to Greenville Road in Livermore in the
eastbound direction, and approximately 14 miles from
Greenville Road to just before San Ramon Road/Foothill
Road in Dublin in the westbound direction. According to
the August 2017 Express Lanes Update compiled by the
Alameda County Transportation Commission, users of
the express lanes experienced average speeds up to 27
miles per hour greater than speeds in the general
1-680 Express Lanes Photo Credit: Noah Berger
purpose lanes. There were approximately 33,000 daily
trips in the express lanes, making up approximately
11 % of vehicles on, the 1-580 Tri-Valley corridor. In
August 2017, 39% of all express lane users were single
occupancy vehicles that chose to pay the toll.
The Tri-Valley also received investment in the Bay Area's
newest express lanes, as the 1-680 Contra Costa Express
Lanes opened between Rudgear Road in Walnut Creek
and Alcosta Boulevard in San Ramon in October 2017.
According to Metropolitan Transportation Commission
data, this segment of 1-680 in the northbound direction
during the evening was the eighth most congested
corridor in the Bay Area during 2016. The previously -
existing HOV lanes had offered some relief through the
corridor —offering time savings of up to 16 minutes
compared to the general purpose lanes —and the
Regional Express Lane Network
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— Express Lane Projects Under Construction
® Near -term Express Lane Projects (By 2025) 2
....... Mid-term Express Lane Projects (By 2035)
,; 25
Long-term Express Lane Projects (After 2035)
Tri-Valley Rising 2018
converted express lanes are likely to offer more time
savings, though it is too early to assess performance.
PASSAGE OF MEASURE BB IN ALAMEDA
COUNTY: In November 2014, Alameda County voters
passed Measure BB, which augmented the existing
half -cent sales tax to fund an $8 billion transportation
expenditure plan over 30 years. Included in the
approved funding was $400 million for the extension
of BART to Isabel Avenue in Livermore. At the time
of its passage, Measure BB's funding provided a key
piece of financing for the project and signaled a high
degree of local support to BART and the Metropolitan
Transportation Commission.
BART MAKES DECISION FOR LIVERMORE
EXTENSION: BART issued the Draft Environmental
Impact report (DEIR) for its Livermore extension in July
2017. It analyzed four alternatives for extending transit
to Isabel Avenue: (1) Conventional BART, (2) Diesel
Multiple Unit (DMU) or Electric Multiple Unit (EMU),
both of which would require a transfer from BART's
current terminus; (3) Bus Rapid Transit through the
highway median; and (4) Enhanced bus service between
the Dublin/Pleasanton BART station and Vasco Road in
the eastern part of Livermore.
The DEIR projected that BART hoardings will increase
by 11,900 by 2040 under the conventional BART
alternative. Incremental BART boardings for the DMU/
EMU alternative are projected at 7,000, while the other
two alternatives show projections for fairly minimal
ridership gains. With an extension, congestion on the
5.5-mile stretch of 1-580 between Isabel Avenue and
the Dublin/Pleasanton BART station is projected to be
reduced in the morning commute hours. The three rail
alternatives ranged in cost from $1.60 to $1.67 billion.
The BART Board took action on the Livermore extension
in its May 2018 meeting. The decision was made to
not pursue any of the alternatives studied. While a
conventional BART extension was preferred by many
stakeholders in the Tri-Valley and across the region,
BART's decision does not completely shut the door on
transit investments in the 1-580 corridor. A portion of the
money programmed for a BART extension to Livermore
will now be transferred to the Tri-Valley-San Joaquin
Valley Regional Rail Authority.
53
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
CREATION OF THE TRI-VALLEY - SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY REGIONAL RAIL AUTHORITY:
Probably the single most impactful event for Tri-
Valley transportation occurred when Governor Brown
signed Assembly Bill 758 into law in October 2017.
Key stakeholders and transportation agencies in the
Tri-Valley and San Joaquin Valley had been discussing
possible transit connections between BART and ACE
as part of the Altamont Regional Rail Working Group,
but with limited authority to fund, design, or construct a
connection, its main purpose was for political advocacy.
With the creation of the Tri-Valley-San Joaquin Valley
Regional Rail Authority, the authority to plan, develop,
and deliver a connection between BART and ACE now
sits fully with local stakeholders.
The governing board of the Tri-Valley-San Joaquin
Valley Regional Rail Authority ("the Authority") consists
of representation from cities across both regions,
Alameda County, San Joaquin County, BART, the San
Joaquin Regional Rail Commission, and the Livermore
Amador Valley Transportation Authority. The Authority's
first task is to deliver a project feasibility report by July
1, 2019, required by AB 758. This report will draw on a
decade of BART environmental review and 2-3 years of
ACEforward environmental work.
The Authority has already adopted a project concept
and has released a schedule for project advancement
that includes choosing a "preferred alternative"
for advanacement into project -level environmental
clearance. Now that BART has foregone any of the
extension plans to Livermore, the Authority can begin
to study alternatives for connecting ACE and BART, a
project now known as Valley Link.
While all options will be studied, the Authority's
adopted project concept entails extending a DMU/EMU
rail line from the Lathrop area through Tracy and over
the Altamont Pass, where it would then connect with
the BART terminus in the Tri-Valley. The project concept
includes using the route of the historic Transcontinental
Railroad through the Altamont Pass. This approximately
12-mile right-of-way was deeded to Alameda County by
Southern Pacific Railroad in 1984. Phase 1 of the project
would preliminarily include stops at Lathrop, River
Islands, Tracy, Mountain House, and Greenville Road
and Isabel Avenue in Livermore.
54
Part of this expansion effort will study the construction
of an even more extensive megaregional line that
begins in Stockton before connecting up with the Phase
1 terminus in Lathrop/Manteca. ACE passengers could
transfer to the Valley Link line at North Lathrop and at
Greenville Road in Livermore. For passengers living
between Stockton and Livermore, this route would
finally provide a direct connection to BART.
Assembly Bill 758 recognizes that some sort of
increased megaregional transit connectivity between the
Tri-Valley and the Central Valley is necessary. Between
1990 and 2016, the number of people commuting daily
from the Northern San Joaquin Valley to the Bay Area
more than doubled and this number is expected to
continue increasing. Building a better connection would
allow workers in the Tri-Valley and the broader Bay
Area to access more affordable housing in San Joaquin
County, and it would reduce the environmental impact
of their commutes. It would also reduce congestion for
those who do choose to drive, and for those commuting
on local roads. Additionally, it would make highway
capacity available for expanded goods movement to
the Bay Area's five ports and the inland Port of Stockton.
Development
TransportationCan Solve Housing and
One vision for a solution to both the problems of
congestion and the need for more housing in the
Tri-Valley is to create more transit -oriented housing.
A transit -oriented development approach has been
successful in Dublin, which has recently built a large
amount of housing near the Dublin/Pleasanton BART
station. One of these projects is Dublin Crossing, also
called Boulevard, a development on the old Camp
Parks military training base that is walking distance
from BART. Still in development, the project will be
pedestrian -oriented and will include six separate
neighborhoods that range in density. The area will
also feature commercial space and community parks.
Such development has been helped by downtown
Dublin's flexible zoning, by which zones are not tied to
land parcels, so developers can move quickly through
permitting processes as long as their developments
comply with the city's specific plan.
Tri-Valley Rising 2018
Preliminary Project Concept for Valley Link Megare l®nal Rail Connection
Pleasanton, too, has increased its transit -oriented
development in the past several years. Two apartment
developments, both called The Galloway, were recently
completed across from Dublin/Pleasanton BART, located
at the southeast corner of Owens Drive and Willow
Road and the northern corner of Gibraltar and Hacienda
Drives. The developments also include commercial and
retail spaces that should bring increased business and
vitality to the places where people live.
The City of Livermore also signaled a desire for more
transit -oriented development as it approved a plan
for a high -density mixed use development near Isabel
Avenue, adjacent to the proposed Livermore BART
station. However, the approval was contingent on
a conventional BART extension to Isabel Avenue.
The project would have created around 4,000 new
residential units, but could still serve as a model for
station area planning for the Tri-Valley-San Joaquin
Valley Regional Rail Authority.
According to a study by MTC, Bay Area residents who
both live and work within a half -mile of rail and ferry
stops use transit for 42% of their work trips, whereas
those who live outside this radius use transit for only 4%
of work trips.99 Continuing to encourage the building
of transit -oriented housing will be an effective way for
Tri-Valley cities to achieve a better jobs -housing balance
while also reducing traffic congestion and creating
vibrant, sustainable communities that allow for greater
transit connectivity throughout the region.
55
Looking to the Future of the Tri-Valley
The Tri-Valley has achieved a great deal of economic
success in the past few decades while at the same
time maintaining a very high quality of life. However, in
order for this success to be sustainable, the Tri-Valley
will need to plan for its future. Challenges like housing
and transportation —both of which contribute
to workforce issues —will need to be addressed
proactively, and having a vision for the future will
help guide the Tri-Valley as it grows and changes.
For this reason, the five Tri-Valley cities, two counties,
business leaders, and other stakeholders should come
together to create an "Innovation Tri-Valley Vision
Plan." Through the process of creating this long-term
plan looking out to 2040, stakeholders should seek to
56
answer how they can best ensure the sustainability of
their economies while continuing to attract businesses
and the jobs that they bring. Such a plan can set the Tri-
Valley on a path toward an even brighter future.
In addition to mapping out a general trajectory forward
for the Tri-Valley, the Innovation Tri-Valley Vision Plan
should also provide specific goals and guidance for
addressing the most pressing issues facing the region:
Enhanced megaregional transit connectivity will be
necessary, and the Valley Link project concept for a
DMU/EMU line that directly connects Tracy, Lathrop,
and Stockton to the Dublin/Pleasanton BART station
and to ACE achieves this goal. The new regional
rail authority needs to come to quick consensus
among its many stakeholders as to the appropriate
alignment and technology to push forward into
planning stages.
• It will be especially important to consider the need
for transportation infrastructure that can support a
growing population and employment base. A plan
for greater transit connectivity will be necessary, as
will strategies for reducing traffic on local roads. This
will be particularly crucial if more people who work
in Bay Area job centers like the Tri-Valley continue
to move east to San Joaquin County or elsewhere
in the Central Valley. One possible solution would
be to treat the existing BART line and the future
Valley Link connection as the spine of a transit
network that would be supported by bus rapid
transit, autonomous transit, or other next -generation
infrastructure for transit connectivity.
• Contemplating how future innovations in mobility
(e.g., autonomous vehicles and buses) and
the nature of work (e.g., greater propensity for
telecommuting) will impact household decision -
making on where to live and work must be an
important part of the visioning process. Planning
efforts should anticipate these changes and not
expect the household preferences and norms of
2018 to remain status quo until 2040.
• The Tri-Valley cities should create a plan for how
and where to build sufficient housing and keep
it affordable for its future residents. In order to
continue to attract young people to work for its
companies, the Tri-Valley will need to have a more
diverse housing stock that people of all income
levels can afford.
• Transit -oriented development will be a key piece
of a more connected, affordable, and vibrant
Tri-Valley. Cities should coordinate on readying
themselves for higher -density housing development
near transit hubs, focusing on walkability, easily
accessible entertainment and cultural amenities, and
connection to workplaces. Identifying future land use
strategies and areas of underutilized land will also be
critical, as a lack of infill housing development will
put more pressure on building into open spaces.
Tri-Valley Rising 2018
• Tri-Valley stakeholders should seek to emulate the
model used in Livermore to successfully advocate for
the creation of more affordable housing. When plans
were being discussed for revitalizing Livermore's
downtown, a coalition led by startups, winegrowers,
artists, scientists, and Innovation Tri-Valley
Leadership Group lobbied to add much -needed
affordable housing to the plan, using city -owned
property for 130 units. This sort of collaborative civic
engagement and consensus building will be key in
ensuring that the Tri-Valley builds enough housing to
support its future economy and population.
• The Tri-Valley's biggest current workforce challenge
is related to affordability. However, that does not
mean the region should ignore training for the
skills of the future economy. Continual partnerships
between industry, K-12 institutions, and community
colleges will ensure that the Tri-Valley educational
system teaches a curriculum that is aligned to the
workforce needs of local employers. Strengthened
connections to the region's institutions of higher
learning via satellite campuses and learning centers
can further reinforce a pipeline of future talent.
• The region must continue to find ways to foster
a robust culture of innovation. This can start with
specialized education programs that can teach skills
for the 2040 economy (e.g., robotics and coding),
and can extend to more real estate resources being
dedicated to the development of small businesses.
Additional co -working spaces and incubators can do
for the Tri-Valley what garages did for Silicon Valley.
Though some of these issues affect individual Tri-Valley
cities more than others, the best way to tackle them will
be as a collective group. This way, the cities can play to
their individual strengths while creating a region -wide
plan for future success. Planning as a coalesced group
will allow the region to take better advantage of the
potential for sharing resources, amenities, and ideas.
The Tri-Valley has achieved a great deal of success
through its unique history of collaboration between city
governments, businesses, innovation institutions, and
community members. That collaboration will need to
continue as the Tri-Valley now finds itself at the center of
a growing and increasingly innovative megaregion.
57
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
Endnotes
1. [-GATE, "Startup Tri-Valley Infographic."
2. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of
Employment and Wages, 2017.
3. Richard Florida, "The New Suburban Crisis," Cityl-alb, May
2, 2017.
4. California Department of Finance, E-1 Cities, Counties,
and the State Population Estimates with Annual Percent
Change, January 2017.
5. Bay Area Council Economic Institute, Continuing Growth
and Unparalleled Innovation, July 2018.
6. Colliers International, "Pleasanton/Tri-Valley Office Market
Report Q3 2017," October 18, 2017.
7. JLL Research, "United States Office Outlook Q2 2017,"
JLL, 2nd Quarter, 2017.
8. "HealthTell," Crunchbase.
9. "10x Genomics," Crunchbase.
10. "POC Medical Systems," Crunchbase.
Candace Andersen - Supervisor Dist. 2, Contra Costa County
Stephanie Beasly - Livermore Valley Open Campus
Partnerships Officer, Sandia National Laboratories
Jill Bergman - Economic Development Manager, Town of
Danville
Tim Cabral - CFO, Veeva Systems
Brandon Cardwell - Executive Director, i-GATE
Eric Figueroa - Assistant City Manager, City of San Ramon
Bryant Francis - Director of Aviation, Port of Oakland -
Oakland International Airport
Don Garman - Managing Partner, Tri-Valley Ventures
Scott Haggerty - Supervisor District 1, Alameda County
Tim Harkness - Founder and CEO, Unchained Labs
Gregory Hitchan - Managing Partner, Tri-Valley Ventures
Dale Kaye - CEO, Innovation Tri-Valley Leadership Group
Stephan Kiefer - Director, Office of Innovation and Economic
Development, City of Livermore
Buck Koonce -Senior Advisor, LLNL
Steve Lanza - Vice President, Human Resources, Lam
Research
Dan Leavitt - Manager of Regional Initiatives, ACE
Alexander Mehran, Sr. - Chairman and CEO, Sunset
Development Company
m
11. "Bay Area Vital Signs: Freeway Congestion Hits New
Record," Metropolitan Transportation Commission,
September 18, 2017.
12. California Department of Finance, "E-4 Population
Estimates for Cities, Counties, and the State, 2011-2017
with 2010 Census Benchmark," May 2017.
13. American Community Survey by zip code.
14. Zillow Research, Zillow Home Value Index All Homes Time
Series, Zillow.com.
15. American Community Survey Five -Year Estimates, U.S
Census Bureau, 2016.
16, Jonathan Bloom, "California's first driverless bus hits the
road in San Ramon," ABC 7 News, March 6, 2018.
17. "Oakland Airport Celebrates Renovated International
Arrivals Building," CBS SF Bay Area, December 12, 2017.
18. Annie Sciacca, "Oakland Airport Expands As International
Arrivals Increase," East Bay Times, July 28, 2017.
19. "Transit -Oriented Development: New Places, New
Choices in the San Francisco Bay Area," Metropolitan
Transportation Commission, November 2006.
Nate Miley - Supervisor District 4, Alameda County
Lauren Moone - Vice President, Tri-Valley Ventures
Pamela Ott - Director of Economic Development, City of
Pleasanton
James Paxson - General Manager, Hacienda Business Park
Marianne Payne - Transportation Specialist, Tri-Valley-San
Joaquin Valley Regional Rail Authority
Richard Rankin - Director, Industrial Partnerships, LLNL
William Ruh - CEO, GE Digital
Les Schmidt - Founder and Executive Director, Bishop Ranch
Intelligence Innovation Accelerator
John Sensiba - Managing Partner, Sensiba San Fillippo LLP
Linda Smith - Assistant City Manager, City of Dublin
Mark Triska - Executive Vice President - San Francisco East
Bay, Colliers International
Veronica Vargas - Mayor Pro Tem, City of Tracy
Phil Wente - Vice Chairman, Wente Vineyards
Ron Wetter- Government Relations Manager, Kaiser
Permanente
Tim Weyland -Vice President, Human Resources, Topcon
America Corporation
Scott Wilson - Community Relations Officer and State
Government Liaison, LLNL
Bay Area Council Economic Institute
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InnovAon TrWafley LeadczwdAp Group
innovation tri-vaitey 5960 Inglewood Drive, Suite 201, Pleasanton, CA 94588
leadership group
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2040 Innovation TRIVALLEY Vision Plan Fact Sheet
What Happens When the Public/Private Sector Come together to Create their Future?
“The TRIVALLEY is an economic juggernaut, growing faster in jobs and population than
any other part of the Bay Area. Our region of Danville, Dublin, Livermore, Pleasanton, San
Ramon and two counties is a major job center, home to two national labs and 450
technology jobs with a regional GDP of $42 billion. Because of this a long -term plan is
required to ensure that the region can continue to be a destination for families and jobs
while maintaining its quality of life.”
TRIVALLEY Rising 2018 Report
With the 2040 Plan the TRIVALLEY Could Create an Optimum Future for the Regions:
Transportation Systems Housing, Land Use, Transit Oriented Housing
Workforce Development Innovation Ecosystem
Youth who will be invited to participate in the process
2040 Innovation TRIVALLEY Vision Plan Process
The Bay Area Council Economic Institute (BACEI) proposes to inform, convene, and moderate a series of
workshops that will act as inputs to a 2040 vision plan for the region. In collaboration with Innovation
TRIVALLEY Leadership Group, they will invite public officials, business leaders, and other key members of
the TRIVALLEY economy to participate in a series of half -day workshops—each focusing on one of the
four key areas for coordinated planning identified in the 2018 report.
The Economic Institute will have three key functions/deliverables for each convening:
Pre-convening white papers BACEI will prepare 10-15-page white papers to be distributed in
advance of each workshop, focusing on TRIVALLEY data and
best practices/case studies from other regions.
Creation of workshop agenda In consultation with Innovation TRIVALLEY Leadership Group,
BACEI will prepare agendas for each workshop, which will
include presentation of data/case studies, organization of an
expert panel, and moderation of break-out groups.
Collection of workshop findings BACEI will compile summary papers of each session, potentially
including graphic recordings, that can be disseminated to
workshop participants and other key TRIVALLEY constituents.
After these workshops are completed, they will use their findings as inputs for a small “summit” of elected
officials, city planners, national laboratory representatives, and key business stakeholders. Within this half -
day event, the group will focus on:
1. Creating a shared vision for the TRIVALLEY in 2040
2. Identifying the topic areas in which regional solutions are most effective
3. Finding opportunities for new housing construction
4. Prioritizing potential transportation and other infrastructure projects
5. Uncovering partnership opportunities between jurisdictions or private-public partnerships
6. Leveraging activities already underway to build enhanced workforce development and
innovation/entrepreneurship activities
The Bay Area Council Economic Institute has been the leading think tank focused on the economic
and policy issues facing the San Francisco/ Silicon Valley Bay Area, one of the most dynamic regions in
the United States and the world’s leading center for technology and innovation. A valued forum for
stakeholder engagement and a respected source of information and fact-based analysis, the Institute is a
trusted partner and adviser to both business leaders and government officials. BACEI will prepare the
2040 Innovation TRIVALLEY Vision Plan for Innovation TRIVALLEY Leadership Group.
Through its economic and policy research and its many partnerships, the Institute addresses major factors
impacting the competitiveness, economic development and quality of life of the region and the state,
including infrastructure, globalization, science and technology, and health policy. It is guided by a Board of
Trustees drawn from influential leaders in the corporate, academic, non-profit, and government sectors.
The Institute is housed at and supported by the Bay Area Council, a public policy organization that includes
hundreds of the region’s largest employers and is committed to keeping the Bay Area the world’s most
competitive economy and best place to live.
Innovation TRIVALLEY Leadership Group (ITV) is led by business leaders and influencers committed to
connecting the businesses, research labs, educational institutions, and civic leaders in the TRIVALLEY
region. This collaborative force is generating job growth and economic vi tality for the region by advocating
for the TRIVALLEY as an innovation hub with an unparalleled quality of life. Its focus is on workforce
development, education, transportation, housing, marketing the TRIVALLEY and creating an innovation
ecosystem which benefits everyone who lives and works in the region.
ITV Partners benefit from access to top business leaders, state and regional political leaders and
stakeholder groups, and personal involvement in essential projects like the recently announced 2040
Innovation TRIVALLEY Vision Plan.
We need your investment to deliver the 2040 Vision Plan for our region.
Dale Kaye Lynn Naylor Tim Sbranti
818.395.0742 925.989.2373 925.858.5303
Send checks to: Innovation TRIVALLEY Leadership Group
5960 Inglewood Dr. #201
Pleasanton, CA 94588
Or invest online at https://innovationtrivalley.org/partners/join-now
Budget Change Reference #:
From Un-Appropriated Reserves X Budget Transfer Between Funds
From Designated Reserves Other
Account Amount Account Amount
1001.8401.64011 $5,000
8/20/2019
Posted By: Date:
As Presented at the City Council Meeting
**********Finance Use Only**********
CITY OF DUBLIN
City's sponsorship of Innovation TRIVALLEY’s 2040 Vision Plan
REASON FOR BUDGET CHANGE
FISCAL YEAR 2019-20
BUDGET CHANGE FORM
DECREASE BUDGET AMOUNT INCREASE BUDGET AMOUNT
EXP: General Fund - Economic Development - Community
Contribution
City Council's Approval Required
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