The URL can be used to link to this page

Home My WebLink About3.5 ABAG Housing Needs # / Yo -10 AGENDA STATEMENT MEETING DATE: November 14, 1983 SUBJECT: ABAG Housing Needs Determination EXHIBITS ATTACHED: Memo from Blayney-Dyett regarding ABAG Housing Needs Determination RECOMMENDATION: f:r Accept the ABAG figures either by motion or by no action FINANCIAL STATEMENT: None DESCRIPTION: As discussed in the memo from Blayney- Dyett, the City's General Plan Consultant, ABAG has prepared regional housing needs, as required by State law. ABAG has determined that by 1990, Dublin will need an additional 1,956 housing units to accommodate anticipated growth and to provide a desirable vacancy rate. The projected need is further defined by type (single family unit, multifamily unit), tenure (owner-occupied, renter), and income category (very low, low, moderate, above moderate). Based on General Plan Working Paper #2, Dublin should be able to meet the project need in terms of total number of units. In terms of type of units, Dublin will probably produce fewer single family units and far exceed the multifamily units projected by ABAG. Dublin will probably also exceed the tenure projected need for rental units. For the income categories of low to very low, it is very unlikely that 665 units (34%) of the additional projected need will be produced in Dublin. Even 450 units (23%) affordable to moderate income households may be difficult to achieve. If the City accepts the ABAG figures, the figures will only need to be included in the housing needs assessment, of the Housing Element, of the General Plan. The figures do not need to be used as Dublin's housing goals and do not commit the City to any particular housing program. Staff recommends that the City Council accept the ABAG figures either by motion or by no action. " ~ t, '\ \ ----------------------------------------------------------------- ITEM NO. '-'.5 COPIES TO: .. Blayney-Dyett Urban and Regional Planners John A. Bla~lnc)'. AICP Michacl V Dyell, AICP MEMORANDUM To: City of Dublin From: Blayney-Dyett "-. Date: September 29, 1983 RE: ABAG Housing Needs Determinations The City of Dublin has been asked to respond to the Housing Needs Determinations which ABAG has prepared for it pursuant to Government Code Section 65584, Regional Housing Needs. This memorandum reviews ABAG's findings, relates them to planned and anticipated development in the city, and discusses implications for the city. . . ~AGHo~~NoomDa~mooti~ ABAG's Housing Needs Determinations are presented in Housing Needs Determina- tions - San Francisco Bay Region (July 1983). Needs Determinations have been prepared for the nine Bay Area counties, their incorporated cities, and the total. unincorporated area for each county. Jurisdictions have 90 days to respond to the Housing Needs Determinations, which consist of several elements, as follows. Existing Need represents the number of additional units a jurisdiction would have provided in 1980 in order to have a housing market in "better" supply-demand balance. According to ABAG, Dublin's "existing need" in 1980 was 296 units. The "existing need" figure is, in effect, an analysis of the city's housing situation, reflecting the extent of unm et housing demand. "Existing need" is included in "projected need." Projected Need is the total number of units needed to accommodate anticipated growth in the city and provide for a desirable vacancy rate. The "projected need" figure is the number of additional units that would ideally be developed in the city by 1990, based on the household projections developed by ABAG and presented in its Pr()jections '83. Household projections reflect the distribution of employment opportunities, availability of suitable sites, and commuting patterns. ABAG's deter- mination of Dublin's "projected need" is 1,956 housing units. Projected Housing Need by Type and Tenure is one of the factors that must be taken into account in the determination of regional need for housing as required by state law. ABAG presents "housing need by type and by tenure" in two separate sets of 70 Zoc Slreel San Francisco, CA 94]07 (4]5) 543-4878 .' Memo re Housing Needs Determinations September 29, 1983 Page 2 tables. Distribution by type and tenure rests on the assumption that "the relative distribution of housing would be approximately that of the 1980 Census" (p. 17). Using this assumption, ABAG has projected a need for 1,794 single-family units (92%), 162 multi-family units (8%), and no mobile homes. ABAG projects a need for 1,485 owner- occupied units (76%) and 471 rental units. Projected Need by Income Category is not a continuation of current patterns but rather a figure that includes a redistribution of households by income category throughout the region. The objective of the redistribution is to "avoid further impaction of ocalities with relatively high proportions of lower income households" (Government Code Section 65584). To generate the figures, ABAG averaged existing city percentages in each income category with the existing county and regional percentages. Median household income as reported by the Census and definitions of income groupings established by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development form the basis of ABAG's calculations. Existing distribution of households by income category is presented in addition to "projected housing need by income category." DUBLIN HOUSEHOLDS Above Very Low Low Moderate Moderate' 1980 Census distribution- 9% 11% 26% 54% household income by percent Projected need by income 391 274 450 841 category (ABAG) 20% 14% 23% 43% This suggests that a regional redistribution of households by income category would result in more than double the percentage of very low income households, with only relatively slight changes in the percentages of low and moderate income households. Relation to Planned and Anticipated Development The total "projected need" for Dublin is slightly less than the number of units currently approved or under consideration by the city (see table below). If ABAG's "projected need" figure is compared to a low projection of potential housing units based on Table 1 in Blayney-Dyett's Working Paper #2, the total of 7,127 includes 2,699 additional units that exceed the "projected need" by 743 units, or 38%. Blayney- Dyett's high potential housing unit projection exceeds ABAG's "projected need" figure by 2,456, or 125%. Clearly, Dublin should be able to meet its "projected need" relative to total number of units needed for all income groups as determined by ABAG. Blayney-Dyett Urban and Regional Planners .. Memo re Housing Needs Determinations September 29, 1983 Page 3 crry OF DUBUN: ABll.JTY TO MEET ABAG PROJECTED NEEDS, 198()-1990 Low Projection Existing Units Units approved or under consideration Potential units on unsubdivided land Total additional units Uni ts in excess of ABAG projected need Percent 4,428 2,023 676 2,699 743 38% High Projection 4,428 2,023 2,389 4,412 2,456 125% The types of housing units currently approved, under consideration, and projected will bring about a significant change in the composition of Dublin's housing stock, one which is not reflected in ABAG's projections, as they simply assume the continuation of past trends. Even under the low projection presented in Working Paper #2, which assumes relatively low residential densities, 1,427 new single-family homes are pro- jected. This projection would result in a total of 77% single-family homes, versus the 92% suggested by ABAG. Under Blayney-Dyett's High Projection, 894 single family units would be produced in Dublin, resulting in 56% single-family units. Uni 18 currently approved or under consideration in Dublin as well as our low and high projections will produce a greater mix of housing types than have previously been available in DUblin, which means greater opportunity for the production of affordable units. We cannot anticipate the number of ,rental units that will be developed under the low and high projections, since the division of multi-family units between condominiums and rental units is not known. However, with anticipated multi-family units ranging from 1,272 to 3,518 it is probable that the city will exceed the projected need for 471 rental units. Projected Need by Income Category is presented as both absolute numbers of units and percentage of units in each category. It is very unlikely that 34% of the units pro- duced in Dublin over the next ten years could be made affordable to low and very low income households. This percentage seems particularly unrealistic in light of the extremely limited availability of public subsidies for housing, which would be necessary for the production of affordable units at such a large scale. Even the production of 23% units affordable to moderate income households may be difficult, though new units at higher prices may indirectly make older affordable units available. While the percentages projected by ABAG are high, the numeric needs might be appro- priate goals for production of affordable housing if the city's density decisions allow development to approach our high projections. Under the low projections most projects would be small, making internal subsidies impossible and requiring public assistance. Densities would be lower, resulting generally in higher cost and fewer rental uni ts. With higher densities and larger projects (more units), the City might be able to use density bonuses and other incentive programs or inclusionary requirements to produce Blayney-Dyett Urban and Regional Planners Memo re Housing Needs Determinations September 29, 1983 Page 4 more affordable Wlits. Under the high projection, ABAG's projected need for very low and low income households stated numerically would equal approximately 15% of Dublin's total additional units. Many below market-rate housing programs are struc- tured to produce 10% to 15% affordable units, so this seems a reasonable goal, though difficult to attain. The city's existing housing stock is also a potential source of affordable Wlits, which could be developed through a program to encourage second units. For example, if six out of every hundred existing residences in Dublin rented out second Wlits, the 274 units affordable to low income households in ABAG's Projected Need could be provided. Implicatims for Dublin According to Jean Safir of ABAG, the city is only required to respond to the Housing Needs Determination by the end of the 90-day comment period (October 28, 1983) if it rejects ABAG's figures and proposes revisions. Revisions must be based on available data and accepted planning methodology; if the City does propose alternatives it is required to provide evidence supporting the new figures. If the City accepts ABAG's figures it does not need to take action during the comment period. We suggest that the City accept the ABAG figures, either actively or by not responding to ABAG within the comment period. No action on the City's part indicates not acceptance of the ABAG figures as the city's housing go8J.s, but rather acceptance of the figures as accurately reflecting the city's housing needs. Acceptance of ABAG's Housing Needs Determinations would not' commit Dublin to a particular housing program, but only to including the fair share figures in the housing needs assessment of the Housing Element. The Housing Element must also include quantified objectives for housing production over a five year period. These objectives will reflect the extent to which the City believes its stated needs can be met. Blayney-Dyett Urban and Regional Planners