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Item 7.3 Greenhouse Gas Emisn
Gti~~V~~U~~r~ CITY CLERK /ll ~ ~N File # ^®~0'0^ 19 ~~' ~~ 8Z ~~` ~~ C'~1LIFpR~1~ AGENDA STATEMENT CITY COUNCIL MEETING DATE: May 5, 2009 SUBJECT: City of Dublin Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Report Prepared by Roger Bradley, Administrative Analyst ATTACHMENTS: 1) Climate Protection Project -Resolution 139-07 2) Final Report -Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory RECOMMENDATION: Staff recommends that the City Council: 1) Accept the report; 2) Direct Staff to develop a proposal for a greenhouse gas emissions reduction target and a proposed work outline to develop a Climate Action Plan as part of the Fiscal Year 2009-2010 Green Initiatives Taskforce proceedings, which would include evaluating the preparation of an Environment Impact Report (EIR) as an economic stimulus measure for the development community. FINANCIAL STATEMENT: None to receive the report, but the development of a greenhouse gas reduction target and the development of a Climate Action Plan by the Green Initiatives Taskforce will have an impact on Staff time and workload. The implementation of a Climate Action Plan will have long-term costs and benefits, which will be evaluated as part of the plan's development. The estimated cost to prepare an EIR is $85,000. DESCRIPTION: As part of the Fiscal Year 2008-2009 Goals & Objectives Program, the City Council adopted a high priority goal to work with the International Council of Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) to conduct a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory for the City of Dublin. The creation of this goal was in response to the adoption of Resolution 139-07 on July 17, 2007 authorizing the City's participation in the Climate Protection Project for Alameda County jurisdictions (Attachment 1). In fulfilling the City Council's request, Staff worked with ICLEI to produce the attached report and analysis. The analysis provided by ICLEI is separated into two sectors -municipal and community. The report is bifurcated along these lines to inform the City about the impact that City operations have on GHG emissions as well as to inform about the community's emissions impact as a whole. Thus, the municipal analysis is a subset of the overall community analysis. The completion of this GHG inventory is one step in the City of Dublin's climate action planning efforts. Additional steps the City Council may wish to consider taking include: • Establishing a GHG emissions reduction target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COPY TO: F:\Council\Agenda Statements\2008-2009\as-ICLELdoc Page 1 of 7 ITEM NO. (• ~,.J n. • Developing a plan for achieving the emissions reduction target. • Implementing the plan. • Re-inventorying and monitoring progress. In keeping with protocols established by other jurisdictions participating in the Climate Protection Project, Staff collected available data from Calendar Year 2005 for use as the base year for the analysis conducted. The data used in the analysis was taken from various locations and sources, which include Stopwaste.org, PG&E, Bay Area Air Quality Management District, and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, as well as from the City's own records. It is important to note that, due to the limitations in the availability of data, the baseline inventory should be viewed as a tool, not an exact measurement of community emissions. The inventory examined the following segments of the Dublin community and the City's governmental operations: Community Emissions Inventory Sectors • Residential • Commercial/Industrial Transportation: State Highways and Local Roads Waste Government Operations Emissions Inventory Sectors • Buildings • Vehicle Fleet • Public Lighting • Water • Waste Community Emissions Inventory Analysis During Calendar Year 2005, the ICLEI inventory determined that 357,211 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) or greenhouse gases were emitted in Dublin. Among the fours community sectors analyzed by ICLEI, the largest contributor of CO2e to the Dublin community was State Highways with 51.4% of the total or 183,714 metric tons of CO2e. The State Highway measure provides an estimate of the impact that drivers have as they pass by or through Dublin on the segments of I-580 and I-680 that touch the City. As it would be difficult for the City Council to feasibly impact emissions reductions for this sector, Staff has broken down the transportation sector into two categories for clarity: State Highways and Local Roads. Page 2 of 7 Community Greenhouse Gas (GHG) F~nISSIOnS by Sector (2005) Waste 3.4% State Residential Highw ays ~~ 14.3% 51.4% Commercial / Industrial 16.8% Local Roads 13.9% I ~ ~~ 2f}(}S Community Commercial Local ~~~ Residentiat I State 1 Waste r~~'~'A~ .. Emissions by Sector ~ / [ndustrial Roads ~ t ighways I COZe metric tons 51,154 60,183 49,670 l 83,714 12,490 X57,211 With highways removed from the calculations, the largest contributor to community emissions is the Commercial/Industrial Sector with 60,183 metric tons of COZe. The residential sector is next with 51,154 metric tons of COZe, followed by local roads at 49,670 metric tons of COZe, and solid waste at 12,490 metric tons of COZe. Government Operations Emissions Inventory Analysis During Calendar Year 2005, the ICLEI inventory determined that the City of Dublin's municipal operations were responsible for emitting 1,573 metric tons of C02e. Among the five sectors analyzed, the largest contributor of COZe was City buildings with 49.0% of the total or 770 metric tons of COZe. Public lighting was also a significant contributor with 30.8% of the total or 484 metric tons of COZe. Together, City buildings and public lighting accounted for nearly 80% of the City's municipal operations emissions. In addition, the City's vehicle fleet accounted for 18.2% of the total with 286 metric tons of COZe, water accounted for 22 metric tons of COZe, and solid waste accounted for 0.7% of the total with 11 metric tons of C02e. When measured as a contributor to total community emissions, municipal activities are not a significant contributor with 0.4% of the total coming from this sector. Page 3 of 7 Government Operations GHG Emissions by Sector (2005) Buildings 49.0% ~ Vehicle Fleet 18.2% I Waste 0.7% Water 1.4% ~_~~ Public lighting 30.8% i Vehicle ' Public Government Emissions 200 ~ Buildings _~ Fleet L~hting Water Wasre Tf,]ET,t ... C02e metric tons 770 286 484 22 11 1.573 Emissions Reduction Target and Legislative Issues As the City Council moves forward in establishing "sustainable" polices and initiatives as part of its newly adopted Strategic Goal, it may wish to consider establishing a GHG emissions reduction target. This target would provide an objective toward which the City could strive and against which the City could measure progress. The target would be a percentage by which the City of Dublin will reduce the GHG emissions the City can control, from a previously established base year, by some time in the future. A common reduction target adopted by jurisdictions within the Climate Protection Project is a 25% reduction in 2005 GHG emissions by the year 2020. Established Reduction Targets Jurisdiction % Below Baseline Emissions Target Year Alameda Cit 25% 2020 Alameda Coun 80% 2050 Alban 25% 2020 Berkele 33% 2020 Eme ville 25% 2020 Fremont 25% 2020 Ha and 13% 2020 Livermore* 15% 2020 Oakland 15% 2010 San Leandro 25% 2020 Union Ci 25% 2020 "Livermore has chosen to re-inventory GHG's for the year 2008 and use these results as its baseline year, which allows the use of a 15% reduction goal to be consistent with the State approved amount. Page 4 of 7 By way of illustration, if the City Council were to adopt a goal of a 25% reduction in 2005 GHG for the City of Dublin, it would require a reduction in emissions below 267,908 metric tons of COZe by the year 2020, regardless of any projected growth in emissions between the base and target years. ICLEI projects that the City's GHG emissions will increase to 488,542 metric tons of COZe by 2020 under abusiness-as- usual scenario (the current economic conditions have not been factored into this growth analysis). Thus, the projected savings in GHG emissions would have to be 220,634 metric tons if the City Council were to adopt a 25% reduction goal. By adopting and obtaining a 25% reduction goal, the City will have avoided almost 50% of the GHG emissions forecasted for 2020. While such a goal is both ambitious and favorable, what impact it or any other goal would have on the community, City services, and the budget are unknown at this time. If the City Council is interested in pursing this activity, Staff would recommend analyzing a goal that takes into account both the maximum benefit to the community as well as the costs associated with implementation. Over the past many years, the City Council has undertaken many measures that have addressed GHG emissions, which includes participation in the U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement promoting the reduction of GHG emissions, adoption of the Clean Air Consortium Checklist for reducing GHG emissions, as well as a number of environmental programs designed to conserve resources in solid waste, water, and energy. The City has also promoted transit-oriented and high-density, mixed-use developments, which are centered on reducing the number of vehicles miles traveled within the City and the Bay Area, resulting in fewer emissions. Staff would recommend that any goal consider and take into account the many programs already in place and enacted by the City Council. Emissions Forec ast for 2 020 500 000 , --- 450 000 , 400,000 ^ Waste 350 000 , m 000 v 300 _ ~ LocalRoads , a~ 000 c 250 D State Highways ~ , •~ 200 000 ^ Corrvnercial / , m I d t i l ~ 150 000 n us r a R id ti l , ~: ^ es en a 100 000 , i 50,000 0 2005 C02e 2 020 C02 e Emissions (metric Emis sions (m etric tons) tons) Page 5 of 7 2005 Community Emissions Growth F6recast by Sector ~.._ .2045 C4~e` Emissiocts' {metrie to s _ 202a CUZe Emissions,. (metric tons) 1'errent Chsrg~ loom' 2045 to ZOZO _ ~ Residential 51,154 80,187 56.8% Commercial /Industrial 60,183 96,625 60.6% State Highways 183,714 229,974 25.2% Local' Roads 49,670 62,177 25.2% Waste 12,490 19,579 56.8% TC}TAL 357,21.1 488,542 36.8% In September of 2006, the State of California enacted AB32, the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, which created aState-wide GHG emissions limit designed to reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and 80% below 19901evels by 2050. The lead State agency for implementation of AB32 is the Air Resources Board (ARB). The ARB, in its Climate Change Scoping Plan, reports that reducing GHG emissions to 19901evels means cutting approximately 30% from business-as-usual emission levels projected for 2020, or about 15% from today's levels. The full implementation of AB32 programs will not be complete until after 2012. In order to encourage as much early action to reduce GHG emissions as possible, the ARB has issued a policy statement declaring that early voluntary actions taken will be rewarded and recognized after full enactment of AB32. Thus, any actions the City has taken or may take before 2012 will be credited toward AB32 objectives. In addition to AB32, the State of California adopted SB375 in 2008. This legislation requires the ARB to set regional targets for the purpose of reducing GHG emissions from passenger vehicles. This bill links government transportation funding, urban land use and GHG emission reduction goals. The legislation is intended to help implement AB32 at the local level by reducing GHG emissions related to development and vehicle miles traveled. In January 2009, the ARB appointed members to the Regional Targets Advisory Committee (RTAC) created by the bill. The RTAC is required to recommend factors to be considered and methodologies to be used for setting regional GHG emission reduction targets. The RTAC's recommendations are due to the ARB by September 30, 2009. At the local level, the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) are working to draft ideas to develop a process for implementation, for synchronization of models, and for the method of approving strategies in the next few months. As voluntary measures to reduce GHG emissions receive credit under AB32, and as early action sends a positive message to the State, other jurisdictions, and the community that the City of Dublin is committed to environmental stewardship, and as the City Council has adopted a Strategic Goal focused upon sustainability, Staff recommends that the City Council direct Staff to analyze an appropriate goal for the City for presentation to and adoption by the City Council. Climate Action Plan If the City Council has interest in adopting an emissions reduction target, Staff would recommend developing an action plan as a follow up item to focus the efforts in reaching the goal. Many cities within the Climate Protection Project have adopted action plans, although some of them have acquired outside Page 6 of 7 consultants to manage the project. Consultant costs to manage the project are estimated at $80,000. As a result of the current economic conditions, this may or may not be feasible, although there may be grant or other opportunities available to help defray the expense. Given current economic constraints and the preliminary adoption of a Fiscal year 2009-2010 high priority goal to create a Green Initiatives Taskforce, the creation of an action plan may be an appropriate item to refer to the taskforce for consideration and development. If the City Council is interested in proceeding with the creation of an action plan, Staff would recommend that this item be referred to the taskforce. As part of its recommendation for a reduction target, Staff would propose for City Council consideration an outline and work plan for the taskforce's completion of the action plan. While the completion of the action plan in such a manner would minimize the City's financial requirements, the impact on Staff time may be significant. Environmental Impact Report The City Council may, in conjunction with the Climate Action Plan, evaluate the benefits of an Environmental Impact Report, which would examine the environmental effects of the Climate Action Plan or its associated impacts on climate change. Specifically, the City would be able to conduct environmental review of the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions for certain projects up to a certain size. Any project which falls within the established threshold would then be exempt from environmental review, with respect to greenhouse gas emissions. The Environment Impact Report (EIR) can serve as an economic stimulus measure for the development community by eliminating the need to conduct environmental review or a greenhouse gas emission survey which can be expensive to prepare and can serve as an impediment for development. The City of Livermore recently adopted a Climate Change Element as part of its General Plan and prepared an Environmental Impact Report as discussed above. The Livermore Climate Change Element and EIR exempt projects that have less than 50 dwelling units or less than 50,000 square feet of commercial/industrial space. Projects which are larger than this require the preparation of project specific greenhouse gas emission surveys. If the City were to pursue this activity, it could establish its own threshold for requiring greenhouse gas emission surveys. If the City Council were to have interest in pursuing this activity, Staff would recommend that it be referred to the taskforce for evaluation. RECOMMENDATION: Staff recommends that the City Council: 1) accept the report; 2) direct Staff to develop a proposal for a greenhouse gas emissions reduction target and a proposed work outline to develop a Climate Action Plan as part of the Fiscal Year 2009-2010 Green Initiatives Taskforce proceedings, which would include evaluating the preparation of an Environment Impact Report (EIR) as an economic stimulus measure for the development community. Page 7 of 7 ~~ RESOLUTION NO. 139 - Q7 A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF DUBLIN APPROVING PARTICIPATION IN THE CLIMATE PROTECTION PROJECT FOR ALAMEDA COUNTY JURISDICTIONS WHEREAS, local government actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to increase energy efficiency provide multiple local benefits; and WHEREAS, partnerships with surrounding communities and agencies can have a positive impact on the environment; and WHEREAS, Stopwaste.org is allowing Alameda County jurisdictions to use funding from their Waste Mitigation Fund to pay for the development of greenhouse gas emissions inventories and Local Climate Action Plans as part of the Climate Protection Project for Alameda County jurisdictions; and NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED that the City Council of the City of Dublin does hereby approve participation in the Climate Protection Project for Alameda County jurisdictions. BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that the City of Dublin will allow ICLEI to conduct an environmental project that will include: 1. A local emission's inventory and forecast to determine the source and quantity of emissions in the jurisdiction. 2. The establishment of an emissions reduction target. 3. An action plan with both existing and future actions capable of meeting the local emissions reduction target. 4. The consideration of the implementation of appropriate and achievable components of the action plan. 5. The consideration of monitoring and reporting progress upon implementation. PASSED, APPROVED AND ADOPTED this 17`~ day of July, 2007. AYES: Councilmembers Hildenbrand, Oravetz, Sbranti, Scholz and Mayor Lockhart NOES: None ABSENT: None ABSTAIN: None ATTEST: 5-~-fit ~>~ Attachment 1 G:CC-MTGS/7-17-07/R o 139 Climate Protection ICLEI (Item 8.3) Uzi City of Dublin Greenhouse Gas Emissions Analysis 2005 Community Emissions Inventory 2005 Municipal Operations Emissions Inventory ~~ 1~ ~~~~~~ .,.1 ;,~: ~ ,t May 2009 ATTACHMENT 2 3~ai Credits and Acknowledgements City of Dublin Janet Lockhart, Former Mayor Kasie Hildenbrand, Council Member Roger Bradley, Administrative Analyst Alameda County Waste Management Authority (Stopwaste.org) Debra Kaufman, Senior Program Manager Meghan Starkey, Senior Program Manager PG&E Jasmin Ansar Xantha Bruso, Climate Protection Policy Specialist Lynne Galal, Senior Project Manager Greg San Martin, Climate Protection Program Manager Jenna Olsen Bay Area Air Quality Management District Amir Fanai, Principal Air Quality Engineer Metropolitan Transportation Commission Harold Brazil, Air Quality Associate ICLEI -Local Governments for Sustainability Gary Cook, California Director Alden Feldon, Regional Program Manager Brooke Lee, Program Officer Jonathan Strunin, Program Officer Wesley Look, Program Associate Jonathan Knauer, Program Associate Alison Culpen, Program Associate Ayrin Zahner, Former Program Associate Jennifer Holzer, Former Program Associate Palak Joshi, Former Program Associate The inventory was prepared by Ayrin Zahner, Jonathan Strunin and Alison Culpen at ICLEI- Local Governments for Sustainability U.S.A. The authors gratefully acknowledge the dedication of staff of the City of Dublin, who provided much of the insight and local information necessary for the completion of this report. I ~ L E I Local Governments for Stzstaina.bility With generous support from Stopwaste.org ~,zi Table of Contents 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................3 1.1. Introduction and History ............................................................................................3 1.2. Climate Change Background ...................................................................................3 1.3. ICLEI Membership and the Five Milestones ...........................................................4 1.4. Sustainability and Climate Change Mitigation Activities in Dublin ....................4 2. City of Dublin 2005 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory .......................................5 2.1. Methods .......................................................................................................................5 2.1.1.CACP Software........ 5 2.1.2. Creating the Inventory .......................................................................................5 2.2. Inventory Results ........................................................................................................6 2.2.1. Community Emissions Inventory ......................................................................6 2.2.2. Community Emissions Forecast .....................................................................10 2.2.3. Government Operations Emissions Inventory ..............................................12 2.2.1. Government Operations Emissions Forecast ...............................................15 3. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................16 4. Appendices .......................................................................................................................17 4.1. Appendix A: Forecast Data from ABAG's Projections 2005 ..............................17 4.2. Appendix B: Emissions Factors Used in the Alameda County Climate Protection Partnership ............................................................................................18 4.3. Appendix C: Waste Calculation Methodology .....................................................19 4.4. Appendix D: Detailed CACP Report: Government Operations Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2005 ..................................................................................... (attached) 4.5. Appendix E: Detailed CACP Report: Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2005 ............................................................................................................ (attached) 2005 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, City of Dublin 2 5,~2 ~ 1. Introduction 1.1. Introduction and History In April 2005, the Dublin City Council adopted a resolution authorizing the Mayor to sign the U.S Mayors Climate Protection Agreement, stating the City's commitment to climate stewardship. The City has also joined all of the other local governments in Alameda County in committing to becoming a member of ICLEI and participating in the Alameda County Climate Protection Project. The project was launched by ICLEI in partnership with StopWaste.Org and the Alameda County Conference of Mayors. Through this action, the City recognized that climate protection is important and that municipal efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions can play an important role in this effort. Through energy efficiency in its facilities and vehicle fleet, clean alternative energy sources, sustainable purchasing and waste reduction efforts, land use and transportation planning, and other activities, the City of Dublin can achieve multiple benefits, including lower energy bills, improved air quality, economic development, reduced emissions, and a better quality of life throughout the community. This greenhouse gas emissions inventory represents completion of an important step in Dublin's climate protection process. Quantifying recent-year emissions establishes: 1) a baseline, against which to measure future progress, and 2) an understanding of where the highest percentages of emissions are coming from, and, therefore, where the greatest opportunities for emissions reductions exist. Presented here are estimates of greenhouse gas emissions in 2005_ resulting from the community as a whole, and from the City's government operations. 1.2. Climate Change Background A balance of naturally occurring gases dispersed in the atmosphere determines the Earth's climate by trapping solar radiation. This phenomenon is known as the greenhouse effect. Modern human activity, most notably the burning of fossil fuels for transportation and electricity generation, introduces large amounts of carbon dioxide and other gases into the atmosphere. Collectively, these gases intensify the natural greenhouse effect, causing global average surface temperature to rise, which is in turn expected to affect global climate patterns. Evidence suggests that human activities contribute to the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, causing a rise in global average surface temperature and consequent climate change. In response to the threat of climate change, communities worldwide are voluntarily reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The Kyoto Protocol, an international effort to coordinate mandated reductions, went into effect in February 2005 with 161 countries participating. The United States is one of three industrialized countries that chose not to sign the Protocol. Despite federal inaction in this area, many communities in the United States are taking responsibility for addressing climate change at the local level. The community of Dublin might be impacted by changes to local and regional weather patterns and species migration. Beyond our community, scientists also expect that changing temperatures could result in more frequent and damaging storms accompanied by flooding and land slides, summer water shortages as a result of reduced snow pack, and disruption of ecosystems, habitats and agricultural activities. Although one jurisdiction cannot independently resolve the issue of climate change, local governments can make a positive impact through cumulative local action. This is the impetus of the Alameda County Climate Protection Project. Cities and counties have the ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 2005 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, City of Dublin 3 c~~~ i through effective land use and transportation planning, wise waste management, and the efficient use of energy. 1.3. ICLEI Membership and the Five Milestones In becoming an ICLEI member, Dublin has joined an international movement of local governments. More than 800 local governments, including over 450 in the United States, have joined ICLEI. In addition to Dublin, all other Alameda municipalities and the County are ICLEI members, part of the 130 member California network (approximately 80 members are located in the Bay Area). The Five Milestone Process provides a framework for local communities to identify and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, organized along five milestones: (1) Conduct an inventory of local greenhouse gas emissions; (2) Establish a greenhouse gas emissions reduction target; (3) Develop a climate action plan for achieving the emissions reduction target; (4) Implement the climate action plan; and, (5) Re-inventory emissions to monitor and report on progress. This report represents the completion of the first milestone, and provides a foundation for future work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Dublin. 1.4. Sustainability and Climate Change Mitigation Activities in Dublin Communi _ -Wide Transit Oriented Development Bicycle, Pedestrian and Public Transit Infrastructure Development Waste Reduction Goal of 75% diversion by 2010 Solar Cities Partnership Project Participation Reduction of Building Permit Fees for Residential Solar Installations Implementation of Commercial and Residential Food-Scraps Recycling Green Building Self=Certification Program Development Adoption of Stopwaste.Org Green-Building Guidelines City Operations Green Building Ordinance for Civic Projects Alternative Fuel and Hybrid Technology Vehicle Types Environmentally Preferable Purchasing Policy Alternative Transportation Incentives/Initiatives Energy Efficiency Window Film Conversion to Civic Center Green Janitorial Services Contracts Water Conservation Facets Recycled Water Usage Recycled Product Purchase Program 2005 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, City of Dublin 4 -~~,~r 2. City of Dublin 2005 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory 2.1. Methods ICLEI assists local governments in systematically tracking energy and waste related activities within their jurisdiction, and in calculating the relative quantities of greenhouse gases produced by each activity and sector. The greenhouse gas inventory protocol involves performing two assessments: 1) a community- wide assessment, and 2) a separate inventory of municipal facilities and activities. The municipal inventory is a subset of the community inventory. Once completed, these inventories provide the basis for policy development, the quantification of emissions reductions associated with proposed measures, the creation of an emissions forecast, and the establishment of an informed emissions reduction target. 2.1.1. CACP Software To facilitate community efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, ICLEI developed the Clean Air and Climate Protection (CACP) software package in partnership with the State and Territorial Air Pollution Program Administrators (STAPPA), the Association of Local Air Pollution Control Officials (ALAPCO)1, and Torrie Smith Associates. This software calculates emissions resulting from energy consumption and waste generation. The CACP software determines emissions using specific factors (or coefficients) according to the type of fuel used. CACP aggregates and reports the three main greenhouse gas emissions (COz, CH4, and Nz0) in terms of equivalent carbon dioxide units, or COze. Converting all emissions to equivalent carbon dioxide units allows for the consideration of different greenhouse gases in comparable terms. For example, methane (CH4) is twenty-one times more powerful than carbon dioxide on a per weight basis in its capacity to trap heat; so the CACP software converts one metric ton of methane emissions to 21 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents. The CACP software is also capable of reporting input and output data in several formats, including detailed, aggregate, source-based and time-series reports. The emissions coefficients and quantification method employed by the CACP software are consistent with national and international inventory standards established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1996 Revised IPCC Guidelines for the Preparation of National Inventories) and the U.S. Voluntary Greenhouse Gas Reporting Guidelines (EIA form1605). The CACP software has been and continues to be used by over 400 U.S. cities, towns and counties to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. However, it is worth noting that, although the software provides Dublin with a sophisticated and useful tool, calculating emissions from energy use with precision is difficult. The model depends upon numerous assumptions, and it is limited by the quantity and quality of available data. With this in mind, it is useful to think of any specific number generated by the model as an approximation of reality, rather than an exact value. It should also be understood by policy makers, staff, and the public that the final total may change as new data, emissions coefficient sets, and better estimation methods become available. 2.1.2. Creating the Inventory The greenhouse gas emissions inventory consists of two distinct components: one for the Dublin community as a whole defined by its geographic borders, and the second for emissions resulting from the City of Dublin's municipal operations. The municipal inventory is effectively a subset of the community- scale inventory (the two are not mutually exclusive). This allows the municipal government, which has ' Now the National Association of Clean Air Agencies (NACAA) z The potency of a given gas in heating the atmosphere is defined as its Global Warming Potential, or GWP. For more information on GWP see: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group I, Chapter 2, Section 2.10. 2005 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, City of Dublin 5 formally committed to reducing emissions, to track its individual facilities and vehicles and to evaluate the effectiveness of its emissions reduction efforts at a more detailed level. At the same time, the community-scale analysis provides a performance baseline against which we can build policies and demonstrate progress for the Dublin community. Creating this emissions inventory required the collection of information from a variety of sources, including the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), Stopwaste.org, the Bay Area Air Quality Management District, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, CalTrans, the California Integrated Waste Management Board, the California Energy Commission, and the Association of Bay Area Governments. 2.2. Inventory Results 2.2.1. Community Emissions Inventory There are numerous items that can be included in a community scale emissions inventory, as demonstrated above. This inventory includes sources from the following sectors: Residential • Commercial /Industrial • Transportation • Waste Emissions by Sector The community of Dublin emitted approXimately 357,211 metric tons of COze in the year 2005. As visible in Figure 1 and Table 1 below, vehicles on roads and state highways in Dublin are by far the largest source of Dublin's community emissions (65.3%). Emissions from the built environment (residential, commercial and industrial sectors) collectively account for almost one-third (31.1%) of community emissions. The rest of Dublin's emissions are from waste sent to landfill (3.5%) by Dublin residents and businesses. Figure 1 -Community GHG Emissions by Sector Community Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions by Sector (2005) Waste 3.4% State Residential Highw ays ~ ~ 14.3% 51.4% \ _-~ Commercial / Industrial 16.8% Local Roads 13.9% 2005 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, City of Dublin 6 q~ai Table 1 -Community GHG Emissions by Sector (metric tons C02e) 2ilO5Community Emissions by Sector Residential Commercial .Local /Industrial ~ Roads State Highways waste ` 1 ;'~'©'~~1L.`" ~:: ~: _. COze metric tone 51,154 60,183 49,670 183,714 12,490 ~~7,?J 1 Percenta e of TotalCOze 14.3% 16.8% 13.9% 51.4% 3.5% 100% Ener Use (MMBtu) 886,617 986,302 670,383 2,479,544 0 x,022,846 Transportation Like the majority of jurisdictions in the Bay Area, the majority of the City of Dublin community emissions are from travel by motorized vehicles. This is also consistent with emissions across the State, as the California Air Resources Board has shown that passenger vehicles make up the single-largest source of emissions in the State.3 As Table 1 and Figure 1 show, over three-fifths (65.3%) of the City's estimated emissions came from travel on local city roads and State highways. Overall, emissions from the transportation sector tota1233,384 metric tons COZe. Table 2 splits up emissions from the transportation sector into travel on local road and state highways. In 2005, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission estimated that 90 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT) occurred on Dublin City roads, emitting approximately 49,670 metric tons of COZe, or 21.3% of total emissions from the transportation sector. The 332 million vehicle miles traveled along state highways in the City accounted for 183,714 metric tons of COZe, or 78.7% of total emissions from the transportation sector. Local Roads 2005 VMT data was obtained from CalTrans, which compiles and published statewide VMT data annually through the Highway Performance Monitoring System.4 CalTrans obtains local roads VMT data from regional transportation planning agencies and councils of governments across the state. For the San Francisco Bay Area, CalTrans obtains data from the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC). MTC obtains data on local roads VMT either from the local governments within its jurisdiction or, if that data is unavailable, through a CalTrans model. County level State Highways Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) 2005 data was obtained from the same CalTrans report listed above. This data was translated to the jurisdiction level data through a GIS analysis by ICLEI using an unpublished CalTrans dataset that was obtained from MTC. The number of vehicles on the road, and the miles those vehicles travel, can be reduced by making it easier for residents to use alternative modes of transportation, including walking, bicycling, and riding public transportation, including the existing and new BART stations in the Dublin/Pleasanton area. Please see the appendices for more detail on methods and emissions factors used in calculating emissions from the transportation sector. s California State Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory available at: http://www. arb. ca.gov/cc/inventory/data/tables/rpt_Inventory_IPC C_S um_2007-11-19. pdf a The 2005 report is available at: http://www.dot.ca.gov/hq/tsip/hpms/hpmslibrary/hpmspdf/2005PRD.pdf. 2005 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, City of Dublin 7 io~Lr Table 2 -Transportation GHG Emissions by Road Type "hransportatiou Koad hype F:rnissions Local Ro:~ds I Sources ?005 State Hi~htii~ays TO';C'A1, COze (metric tons) 49,670 183,714 233,3$4 Percentage of Total COZe 21.3% 78.7% 100% Total Vehicle Miles Traveled 89,680,500 331,701,050 421,381,550 The Built Environment (Residential, Commercial, Industrial) In 2005, 31.1 % of total community wide emissions came from the built environment, which is comprised of the residential, commercial and industrial sectors. Collectively, these sectors consumed about 272.2 million kWh of electricity and 9.4 million therms of natural gas, resulting in approximately 111,337 metric tons of COze. The City of Dublin receives its electricity from the Pacific Gas & Electric Company (PG&E). The 2005 emissions coefficients for electricity provided by PG&E are included in Appendix B. The types of power sources that make up a utility's electricity generation mix have a significant impact on a city's greenhouse gas emissions. A coal fired power plant, for example, releases 1.3 tons of COZe per megawatt-hour of electricity generated versus 0.7 tons for gas turbines and 0 tons for renewable sources such as solar, wind, or hydroelectric power. Dublin's emissions from the built environment are slightly more from the commercial and industrial sectors (54.1%), with the residential sector composing 45.9% of community stationary emissions (see Figure 2). Residential In 2005, Dublin's 40,7005 residents consumed 91 million kWh of electricity, or about 6,987 kWh per household, and 5.8 million therms of natural gas, or about 442 therms per household6. When compared to most other Alameda County jurisdictions, energy consumption per household in Dublin in 2005 is somewhat larger. While this is likely in part due to Dublin's inland location and more extreme temperatures, this suggests that the City may be able to find significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by targeting energy efficiency in residential buildings. Overall, energy consumption in the residential sector resulted in a release of 51,154 metric tons of COZe. Major residential energy uses include refrigeration, lighting, air conditioning and heating, and water heating. Com~nerciaUlndustrial In 2005, Dublin's commercial and industrial sector buildings consumed 181.2 million kWh of electricity and 3.7 million therms of natural gas. This consumption resulted in a release of 60,183 metric tons of COze into the atmosphere. Industrial natural gas and electricity consumption data is reported within this sector due to PUC confidentiality rules that prohibit the release of such data in certain cases. Also, the industrial sector does not include Direct Access electricity or natural gas consumption by large industrial consumers, as this information is similarly unavailable due to PUC privacy rules. s Populations and household estimates are from ABAG's Projections 2005. 6 Ibid. 2005 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, City of Dublin 8 ii~~~ Figure 2 -Built Environment Emissions Community GHG Em fissions from The Built Environment (2005) Commercial Residential / Industrial 45.9% 54.1 Waste In 2005, the City of Dublin sent approXimately 41,779 tons of solid waste and 2,093 tons of alternative daily cover (ADC)s to landfill, resulting in a total of about 12,490 metric tons of COze, or 3.5 % of the City's total greenhouse gas emissions (see Figure 1). Emissions from the waste sector are an estimate of methane (CH4) generation that will result from the anaerobic decomposition of the waste sent to landfill from the community as a whole in the base year (2005). It is important to note that these emissions are not solely generated in the base year, but occur over the 100+ year timeframe in which the waste generated in 2005 will decompose. This "frontloading" of future emissions allows for simplified accounting and accurate comparison of the emissions impacts of waste disposed in each year. Therefore if the amount of waste sent to a landfill is significantly reduced in a future year, that year's emissions profile will reflect those reductions8. As some types of waste (e.g. paper, plant debris, food scraps, etc.) generate methane within the anaerobic environment of a landfill and others do not (e.g. metal, glass, etc.), it is important to characterize the various components of the waste stream. Alameda County is unique among California counties in that it conducted its own waste characterization study in the year 2000. ICLEI utilized this study to determine the average composition of the waste stream for all Alameda municipalities. The specific characterization of ADC tonnage was provided by the CIWMB via the Disposal Reporting System (DRS). Most landfills in the Bay Area capture methane emissions either for energy generation or for flaring. The US EPA estimates that 60%-80%9 of total methane emissions are recovered at the landfills to which the ~ The California Integrated Waste Management Board defines ADC as "Alternative cover material other than earthen material placed on the surface of the active face of a municipal solid waste landfill at the end of each operating day to control vectors, fires, odors, blowing litter, and scavenging." s As the emissions reductions associated with decreasing the amount of waste being landfilled are real and there are usually few external variables that change those emissions levels later, this front-loading is considered to be an accurate practice for counting and reporting emissions that will be generated over time. 9 AP 42, section 2.4 Municipal Solid Waste, 2.4-6, http://www.epa.QOV/ttn/chief/ap42/index.html 2005 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, City of Dublin g ~ ~ City sends its waste. Following the recommendation of the Alameda County Waste Management Authority, and keeping with general IPCC guidelines to err towards conservative estimation, ICLEI has adopted 60% as the methane recovery factor used in these calculations. The tonnage of waste that is recycled, composted, or otherwise diverted from landfills is not directly inputted into CACP. The impact of such programs, however, is reflected in the CACP software mode] as a reduction in the total tonnage of waste going to the landfill (therefore reducing the amount of methane produced at that landfill). The CACP model does not capture the emissions reductions in "upstream" energy use from recycling (or any other emissions reduction practice) in the inventory. However, it should be noted that recycling and composting programs can have significant additional impact on GHG emissions, as manufacturing products with recycled materials avoids emissions from the energy that would have been used during extraction, transporting and processing of virgin materials. Table 3 -Community Waste Composition and Emissions by Waste Typet ° 2.2.2. Community Emissions Forecast Emissions Forecast for 2020 500,000 -- 450, 000 f 400,000 - ^ Waste d 350,000 - v 300,000 ^ Local Roads N 0 250,000 ^ State Highways •~ 200,000 ^ Commercial / m Industrial ~ 150,000 -- ^ Residential 100, 000 50,000 0 2005 C02e 2020 C02e Emissions (metric Emissions (metric tons) tons) Figure 3 -Community Emissions Forecast Under abusiness-as-usual scenario, the City of Dublin's emissions will grow over the next decade and a half by approximately 36.8%, from 357,211 to 488,542 metric tons C02e. This is a significant growth rate to Waste characterization study conducted by Stopwaste.org for the year 2000. This total does not include ADC. 2005 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, City of Dublin 10 Waste Tyhe Paper Food Pla~~t Wood/ ~ All Other ' ~ ~ TOTAL 'roducts V1'aste 1 llehris Tettiles ~ waste ~~ COZe metric tons 7,430 2,229 490 2,332 0 1.:,48 i Percenta a of Total COZe 59.5% 17.9% 3.9% 18.7% 0% 100% Percent of Total Tonnage Dis osed 22.9% 12.2% 4.7% 25.4% 34.8% 1 UO°,'u ~ c when compared to other Alameda County jurisdictions, and underscores Dublin's predicted jobs and population boom in the next decade. This also underscores the importance of acting to reduce emissions now, as any policies Dublin enacts now will affect future residents and businesses as well. To illustrate the potential emissions growth based on projected trends in energy use, driving habits, job growth, and population growth from the baseline year going forward, ICLEI conducted an emissions forecast for the year 2020. Figure 3 and Table 4 show the results of the forecast. A variety of different reports and projections were used to create the emissions forecast. Residential Forecast Methodolo For the residential sector, ICLEI calculated the compounded annual population growth rate" between 2005 and 2020, using population projections from ABAG's Projections 2005. The resulting growth rate (3.042 %) was used to estimate average annual compound growth in energy demand. ABAG estimates that Dublin's population was 40,700 in 2005, and ICLEI's calculations predict a population of 63,800 in 2020, an overall population increase of 57 percent. Commercial /Industrial Forecast Methodolo~y Analysis contained within "California Energy Demand 2008-2018: Staff Revised Forecast12," a report by the California Energy Commission (CEC), shows that commercial floor space and the number of jobs have closely tracked the growth in energy use in the commercial sector. Using job growth projections for the City of Dublin from ABAG's Projections 2005, it was calculated that the compounded annual growth in energy use in the commercial sector between 2005 and 2020 will be 3.207%. Dublin's job growth between 2005 and 2020 is projected to be 60 percent, increasing from approximately 20,000 to 32,000 jobs. Transportation Forecast Methodolo~y In their report, "Transportation Energy Forecasts for the 2007 Integrated Energy Policy Report," the CEC projects that on-road VMT will increase at an annual rate of 1.51% per year through 202013. This is the number that was used to estimate emission growth in the transportation sector for the Dublin forecast. The recently passed federal Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards and the state of California's pending tailpipe emission standards could significantly reduce the demand for transportation fuel in Dublin. An analysis of potential fuel savings from these measures at a scale that would be useful for the purpose of this report has not been conducted, nor would such an analysis produce a true business-as- usual estimation. Regardless of future changes in the composition of vehicles on the road as a result of state or federal rulemaking, emissions from the transportation sector will continue to be largely determined by growth in vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT). Waste Forecast MethodoloQy As with the residential sector, the primary determinate for growth in emission in the waste sector is population. Therefore, the compounded annual population growth rate for 2005 to 2020, which is 3.042% (as calculated from ABAG population projections), was used to estimate future emissions in the waste sector. '1 Compounded annual growth rate= ((2020 population/2005 population)^(1/15))-1 'Z http://www.enerey.ca.gov/2007publications/CEC-200-2007-015/CEC-200-2007-015-SF2.PDF 13 Report available at: http://www.energy.ca.~ov/2007publications/CEC-600-2007-009/CEC-600-2007-009-SF.PDF. Compounded Annual growth rate for 2005-2020 is calculated from Table 4 on page 12. In light of recent fueLcost increases, the calculation assumes high fuel cost scenario. 2005 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, City of Dublin 11 Table 4 - Community Emissions Growth Prniections by Sector 200 CO~e 2020 CO,e Annual Yerce~nt 200a Commwiit~~ Emissions Emissions Emissions Gro~rth Changefrom Growth Forecast by Sector (metric (metric Rate 2005 to 2020 tons} tons) Residential 51,154 80,187 3.042% 56.8% Commercial /Industrial 60,183 96,625 3.207% 60.6% State Highways 183,714 229,974 1.509% 25.2% Local Roads 49,670 62,177 1.509% 25.2% Waste 12,490 19,579 3.042% 56.8% TOTAL j 357,211 488,542 -- 36.8% 2.2.3. Government Operations Emissions Inventory The sources of emissions that are being counted in the Government Inventory are facilities and equipment owned and operated by the City. The Government Operations Inventory includes sources from the following sectors: • Facilities • Vehicle Fleet • Public lighting • Water • Solid Waste Errtissions by Sector The government operations in the City Of Dublin emitted approximately 1,573 metric tons of COze in the year 200.5. As visible in Table 5 and Figure 4, the largest source of emissions from government operations is the City's buildings, emitting half (49.0%) of greenhouse gases. The City's public lighting is the second largest source of emissions, emitting about one third (30.8%) of all emissions. Emissions from vehicle fleet are also a significant source of greenhouse gases (18.2%), as are emissions from water pumps and irrigation (1.4%). Waste created through government operations composes about 0.7% of the total remaining emissions. Figure 4 -Government GHG Emissions by Sector Government Operations GHG Emissions by Sector (2005) Buildings 49.0% Vehicle Fleet 18.2% -7 I Waste 0.7% f~ ~ Water 1.4%-~ `~~ ' ~ Public lighting 30.8% 2005 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, City of Dublin 12 ~~~ Table 5 -Government GHG Emissions by Sector Government Emissions 200 C02e "metric tons) Buii_ dings 770 Vehicle Elect 286 Public [ ichting 484 '; j Water 22 ~ ~~'aste 11 TOTAL 1,573 Pereenta a of Total' COZe 49.0% 18.2% 30.8% 1.4% 0.7% 100°~0 Ener E uivalent (MMBtu) ' 12,787 3,681 7,377 335 - 24,180 Cost ($) $354,748 $21,580ia $245,410 $16,775 $29,064 $667,577 Ener~y Related Costs In addition to generating estimates on emissions per sector, ICLEI has calculated the basic energy costs of various government operations. During 2005, the Dublin municipal government spent approximately $668,00015 on energy (electricity, natural gas, gasoline, and diesel) for its buildings, public lighting and vehicles. The large majority of costs were for energy usage by City facilities, with about $355,000 spent on natural gas and electricity. Energy for public lighting was a relatively large cost as well at around $245,000. Beyond reducing harmful greenhouse gases, any future reductions in municipal energy use have the potential to reduce these costs, enabling Dublin to reallocate limited funds toward other municipal services. Facilities /Municipal Buildings In 2005, Dublin municipal buildings and other facilities consumed about 2.2 million kWh of electricity and 54,000 therms of natural gas, which cost the City approximately $355,00 and resulted in a release of 770 metric tons of COze emissions into the atmosphere. l6 As stated above, and as visible in Figure 4, emissions from municipal facilities constitute approximately 49.0% of total City emissions. Table 6 shows energy consumption and emissions by facility groupsl'. In 2005, the Dublin Civic Center was the largest energy consumer in the City, consuming 55% of all the electricity and 48% of all the natural gas of all government facilities. Consumption from the Civic Center resulted in 405 metric tons of CO,e emitted, or 52.6% of all facility emissions. The Swim Center was also a large source of emissions, emitting 129 metric tons COze, or 16.8% of all facility emissions. City fire stations, the Emerald Glen Park and Preschool, and recreation facilities were also significant emitters, collectively emitting approximately 29% of all City facility emission. City parks and other energy consumers made up only a small portion of emissions from City facilities. Table 6 -Energy Consumption and COze Emissions from Facilities COze Pereentao~ Electricity Natural Clas Energy (metric tons) of Total Consumption Consumption Equivalent _ facility _ ~~ _ (~O~c ~ (kWh)_ (therms) (NI~ViStu) Cost(`) Civic Center 405 52.6% 1,186,080 26,231 6,671 187,065 Swim Center "' ' 129 16.8% 187,840 16,352 2,276 42,476 Fire Stations- 88 11.4% 183,920 8,679 1,496 37,454 Emerald Glen Park and ....Preschool 79 10.3% 353,477 0 1,206 45,008 Recreation Facilities/Centerslx 55 7.1% 173,952 3,031 898 32,723 -Parks and Other 14 1.8% 70,339 0 240 10,022 TO'i'AI, ~ 77t1 100"/° Z,155,60I3 54,293 I2,787 $3:x,7.48 la This total includes only the Fire department vehicles. Fuel costs were unavailable for vehicles from all other departments. 15 Ibid. 16 Accounts attributed to the Housing Authority have been removed from the government operations due to lack of jurisdiction Consumption by residents in these facilities has been counted in the aggregated community-wide analysis residential sector. 2005 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, City of Dublin 13 ~~~~ ~ City Vehicle Fleet and Mobile Equipment As visible in Figure 4, the City's vehicle fleet was the third largest source of municipal emissions in 2005, emitting 18.2% of all emissions from government operations. The municipal fleet includes all vehicles owned and operated by the City of Dublin. For this inventory, fuel consumption was reported for only the fire department fleet, or 13 out of 51 vehicles in the City fleet. Where fuel consumption was not reported, vehicle miles traveled and emissions per vehicle mile were used to estimate C02e emissions20 In 2005, vehicles included in the inventory emitted about 286 metric tons of C02e. Table 7 and Figure 5 break down emissions by department; as stated above, where fuel consumption was not reported, vehicle miles traveled and emissions per vehicle mile were used to estimate C02e emissions. ICLEI encourages Dublin to develop a common record keeping practice across City departments to help the City to better understand its emissions, formulate appropriate emissions reductions policies, and possibly lead to cost reductions. Table 7 - 200.1 City Vehicle Fleet Emissions and Fuel Consumption *Fuel consumption was unavailable for these departments. Odometer readings were used to estimate fuel consumption for the purposes of the estimate. Department _ Police De t* CO,e (metric ~ hmsj , 177 percentage of Total CO,e 61.9% Gasoline Consumption (gal) ~ n/a Diesel- ~ Consumption _ (gal) n/a ~ Enercy ~ Equi`valent ~M',Niitu) 2,285 Fire De t- 78 27.3% 980 7,113 991 Public Works De tx 28 9.8% n/a n/a 365 Parks De t* 3 1.0% n/a n/a 40 TO'hAL 286 :100°l° 480 7,;[ l3 - 3.681 Figure 5 -City Fleet GHG Emissions by Sector Fleet GHG Emissions by Department (2005) Fire Dent `~ A few individual buildings are highlighted due to their large emissions numbers. 's This includes the Heritage Center, the Senior Center, and Shannon Community Center and Park. r9 This includes Dolan Park, Kolb Park, Mape Memorial Park, Ted Fairfield Park, and a storage yard and trash compactor. 20 Emissions per VMT =Fuel Efficiency (i.e. miles per US gallon) x Emissions per Unit of Fuel (the fuel type factor). 2005 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, City of Dublin 14 ~~ ~~ Public Li~htin~ The category of public lighting includes all streetlights and traffic signals in the City of Dublin. In 2005, public lighting consumed about 2.2 million kWh of electricity at a cost of $245,410. This energy consumption resulted in a release of 484 metric tons of COZe emissions into the atmosphere. Table 8 breaks down energy use and emissions from public lighting by type. Over all categories of energy, across all sectors of municipal operation, public lighting generated just under a third (30.8%) of all emissions (Figure 4), the second largest source of emissions from government operations. This is unusual, as streetlights make up a much larger proportion of overall electricity consumption from government operations in Dublin than in most other local governments. Much of this consumption is due to several large streetlight accounts for new subdivisions in the City. This suggests that the City may be able to effectively reduce emissions by reducing consumption of electricity to power streetlights, by reducing hours of operation, number of streetlights, or improved technologies. Table 8 - 2005 Public Lighting Emissions and Energy Use Cn e Percentage _ Electricit~~ Energy (metric tens) qP Tofiaf Consumption ! Equivalent Li«hlin<~ T~ e - ~ ~_ -~--- -- - _ CO,c - -- _ - (kWh) _ ~1'IMBtu _ j Cost ('ti) Street Li his 427 88.2% 1,907,977 6,512 $207,171 Traffic Si~rnal~ 57 11.8% 253,497 865 $38,239 TO'h.A L ~ =38d ~ t 00% 2, l b1,474 7,377 524,410 Water The category of water includes all electricity used for pumping water and irrigation control. In 2005, the water infrastructure consumed about 98,086 kWh of electricity which cost the City $16,775 and resulted in a release of 22 metric tons of COZe emissions into the atmosphere. There was no further breakdown of the data; total energy use and emissions from water pumps and irrigation generated about 1.4% of emissions (Figure 4). Solid Waste Solid waste generated by City-owned facilities and infrastructure produced an estimated 0.7% (Figure 4) of the total emissions from government operations. As in the community analysis, these emissions are an estimate of future methane generation over the full, multi-year decomposition period of the waste generated in the year 2005. In 2005, the City of Dublin sent approximately 32.5 tons of solid waste to landfill, resulting in a total of I 1 metric tons of COze. In the absence of a centralized disposal record like the CIWMB Disposal Reporting System, waste generation figures from government operations, as well as the characterization of government waste, were estimated by City of Dublin staff. Additionally, the final emissions number generated by the CACP software used the 60% methane recovery factor discussed above. 2.2.4. Government Operations Emissions Forecast While the community emissions growth forecast is based upon known per capita energy consumption, workforce expansion, and population growth projections, the forecast of growth within municipal operations is based upon the expansion of City services or infrastructure. It was not within the scope of 2005 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, City of Dublin 15 ~~.~~' this project to estimate growth of City infrastructure or services, and, therefore, the government operations emissions forecast is not included. ICLEI advises that the City conduct such a forecast to be included in this report at a later date, and to inform the process of selecting an emission reduction target for City operations. 3. Conclusion This report lays the groundwork for future emission reduction efforts by estimating baseline emission levels against which future progress can be demonstrated. This analysis found that emissions released within the City of Dublin community, as a whole, totaled 357,211 metric tons of COze in the base year 2005, with the transportation sector contributing the most (65.3%) to this total. Within the transportation sector, State highways had the most significant contribution to emissions released within the City of Dublin (51.5%) at 183, 714 metric tons of CO~e in the base year 2005. The City of Dublin's own municipal operations were responsible for 1,573 metric tons of COze in the year 2005, with the greatest percentage of emissions coming from City buildings and facilities (0.44%). In addition to establishing the baseline for tracking progress over time, this report serves to identify the major sources of Dublin emissions, and therefore the greatest opportunities for emission reductions. In this regard, the emissions inventory ought to inform the areas of focus for any future emission reduction polices or programs. Following the ICLEI methodology, we also recommend that the City of Dublin utilize the inventory to begin to consider potential greenhouse gas reduction targets for the community and for municipal operations. 2005 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, City of Dublin 16 4. Appendices _y.._~ I~ 4.1. Appendix A: Forecast Data fr om ABAG's Projections 2005 Forecast Table 1-ABAG Projections on Job Growth in Dublin ~ ~ ~= JURISDICTIONAL BOUNDARY 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 ALAMEDA 27,380 27,960 34,750 37,990 41,080 ALBANY 5,190 4,940 5,560 5,650 5,670 BERKELEY 78,320 76,890 79,080 80,580 81,690 DUBLIN 16,540 19,950 24,770 29,170 32,030 EMERYVILLE 19,860 20,140 21,460 21,750 21,900 FREMONT 104,830 96,530 105,060 119,360 136,770 HAYWARD 76,320 73,670 80,030 84,330 88,790 LIVERMORE 32,820 33,660 40,420 46,170 55,070 NEWARK 21,420 21,180 23,310 23,810 24,230 OAKLAND 199,470 207,100 223,490 235,030 250,260 PIEDMONT 2,120 2,120 2,140 2,160 2,190 PLEASANTON 58,670 58,670 66,050 72,020 73,410 DUBLIN 44,370 42,790 44,840 50,460 54,380 UNION CITY 19,310 19,920 24,000 29,010 34,900 UNINCORPORATED 43,540 41,980 43,880 47,480 50,940 Forecast Table 2 -ABAG Projections on P opulation Growth in Dublin ~ -~- ~ JURISDICTIONAL BOUNDARY 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 ALAMEDA 72,259 75,400 77,600 79,900 82,300 ALBANY 16,444 16, 800 17,200 17,400 17, 800 BERKELEY 102, 743 105, 300 107,200 109, 500 111, 900 DUBLIN 29,973 40,700 50,000 57,000 63,800 EMERYVILLE 6,882 8,000 8,800 9,300 9,900 FREMONT 203,413 211,100 217,300 226,900 236,900 HAYWARD 140,030 146,300 151,400 156,600 160,300 LIVERMORE 73,345 78,000 84,300 90,200 96,300 NEWARK 42,471 44,400 46,000 47,400 49,000 OAKLAND 399,484 414,100 430,900 447,200 464,000 PIEDMONT 10,952 11,100 11,200 11,200 11,200 PLEASANTON 63,654 68,200 72,600 76,500 80,400 DUBLIN 79,452 82,400 84,300 87,500 90,800 UNION CITY 66,869 71,400 75,100 78,600 82,600 UNINCORPORATED 135,770 143,900 150,600 153,600 157,300 2005 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, City of Dublin 17 1 4.2. Appendix B: Emissions Factors Used in the Alameda County Climate Protection Partnership Emission Factors: COZ 0.489155 lbs/kwh The certified COZ emission factor for delivered electricity is publicly available at PG&E http•//www climatere~istry or~/CarrotDocs/19/2005/2005 PUP Report V2 Revl Electricity 0.492859 PGE rev2 Dec l.xls COze lbs/kwh COZ 343.3 short Default tons/GWh Direct CHq 0.035 short ICLEI/Tellus Institute (2005 Region 13 -Western Systems Coordinating Access tons/GWh CounciUCNV Average Grid Electricity Coefficients) Electricity Nz0 0.027 short tons/GWh PG&E/CCAR. Emission factors are derived from: California Energy Commission, COZ 53.05 Inventory of California Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-1999 kg/MMBtu (November 2002); and Energy Information Administration, Emissions of PG&E Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2000 (2001), Table B1, page 140. Natural CHa 0.0059 CCAR. Emission factors are derived from: U.S. EPA, "Inventory of U.S. Gas kg/MMBtu Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2000" (2002), Table C-2, page C-2. 0.001 EPA obtained original emission factors from the Intergovernmental Panel on Nz0 kg/MMbtu Climate Change, Revised IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Reference Manual (1996), Tables 1-15 through 1-19, pages L53-1.57. Alameda County Transportation Sector Emission Factors: ~ ~ _ _ ~ ~ ~- ~ ~ 0.062 0.042 0.070 0.050 92.8% 7.2% 8,599 10,092 19.1 6.4 Provided by the Bay Area Air Quality Management District EMFAC Model Alameda County Waste Sector Emission Factors: ~ ~ ~ ~ ~• Pa er Products 2.138262868 0 Food Waste 1.210337473 0 Plant Debris .685857901 0 Wood/Textiles .605168736 0 All Other Waste 0 0 Methane recovery factor of 60% derived from the US EPA AP 42 Emissions Factors report (http://www.epa. gov/ttn/chief/ap42/index.html). 2005 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, City of Dublin 18 ~i~ 4.3. Appendix C: Waste Calculation Methodology Emissions Calculation Methods C02e emissions from waste and ADC disposal were calculated using the methane commitment method in the CACP software, which uses a version of the EPA WARM model. This model has the following general formula: Where: Wt is the quantify of waste type `t', R is the methane recovery factor, A is the COZe emissions of methane per metric ton of waste at the disposal site (the methane factor) While the WARM model often calculates upstream emissions, as well as carbon sequestration in the landfill, these dimensions of the model were omitted for this particular study for two reasons: 1) This inventory functions on a end-use analysis, rather than alife-cycle analysis, which would calculate upstream emissions), and 2) This inventory solely identifies emissions sources, and no potential sequestration `sinks'. 4.4. Appendix D: Detailed CACP Report: Government Operations Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2005 (attached) 4.5. Appendix E: Detailed CACP Report: Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2005 (attached) 2005 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, City of Dublin 19