Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutItem 8.1 - 1175 Plan Bay Area 2040 Draft Preferred Scenario Page 1 of 5 STAFF REPORT CITY COUNCIL DATE: October 4, 2016 TO: Honorable Mayor and City Councilmembers FROM: Christopher L. Foss, City Manager SUBJECT: Plan Bay Area 2040 Draft Preferred Scenario Prepared by: Marnie Delgado, Senior Planner EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Plan Bay Area (formerly referred to as the Sustainable Communities Strategy) is a regional planning effort led by the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) and the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC). Plan Bay Area was first prepared 2013 in response to Senate Bill 375, California’s 2008 climate law, and must be updated every four years. The document is intended to provide a roadmap to help Bay Area cities and counties plan for and accommodate regional jobs and housing growth wh ile reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The original Plan Bay Area 2013 was jointly adopted by ABAG and MTC in 2013. ABAG and MTC are currently preparing the first strategic update which is known as Plan Bay Area 2040. They have released the Draft Preferred Scenario and corresponding transportation investment strategy, which represents a regional pattern of household and employment growth by the year 2040. STAFF RECOMMENDATION: Staff recommends that the City Council receive Staff’s presentation and provide direction as appropriate. FINANCIAL IMPACT: None. DESCRIPTION: Plan Bay Area is a state-mandated, integrated long-range transportation, land-use and housing plan. The Plan is intended to provide a roadmap to help Bay Area cities and counties plan for and accommodate regional jobs and housing growth while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. State law gives joint responsibility for Plan Bay Area to the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) and to the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC). The Plan must be updated every four years. These two agencies work with the Bay Area Air Quality Management District and the Bay Conservation and Page 2 of 5 Development Commission. They also reach out to local communities, agencies and a wide range of stakeholders to obtain public input into the Plan’s preparation. Plan Bay Area 2013 was jointly approved on July 18, 2013 by ABAG and MTC. Plan Bay Area 2013 includes the region’s Sustainable Communities Strategy and the Regional Transportation Plan. In January 2015, work began on the first state mandated update, which is known as Plan Bay Area 2040. Staff from MTC and ABAG met with stakeholders, hosted open houses, and established goals and targets. This information was used to develop a Draft Preferred Land Use Scenario for allocating jobs and housing growth throughout the region. The Draft Preferred Scenario represents a regional pattern of household and employment growth by the year 2040, and includes a corresponding transportation investment strategy. In September 2016, the Draft Preferred Land Use Scenario was released for public review and comment. Draft Preferred Land Use Scenario In May 2016, MTC and ABAG released three alternative land use and transportation scenarios illustrating the effects that different housin g, land use and transportation strategies would have on the regional goals and performance targets set forth in Plan Bay Area 2040. The three scenarios were featured at public open houses and online forums throughout May and June. They represent a progress ion of plausible regional futures, from more intense housing and employment growth in the urban core (“Big Cities Scenario”); to more evenly apportioned development among priority development areas (PDAs) in medium-sized cities with access to rail services (“Connected Neighborhoods Scenario”); to a more dispersed development pattern, with relatively more growth occurring outside of PDAs (“Main Streets Scenario”). Since then, MTC and ABAG incorporated feedback received from the public and from policymakers to develop the Draft Preferred Scenario. The Draft Preferred Scenario largely reflects the foundation established in Plan Bay Area 2013 by: Focusing development toward Priority Development Areas (PDAs) - neighborhoods served by public transit identified by local jurisdictions as being appropriate for smart, compact development. Preserving Priority Conservation Areas (PCAs) by confining growth to established communities, and protecting the Bay Area’s legacy of vast and varied open spaces. The Draft Preferred Scenario largely follows the regional growth pattern of Plan Bay Area 2013 by focusing 75 percent of new households and 52 percent of new jobs into PDAs, and distributing the remaining growth within the region’s planned urban growth boundaries/limit lines. Similar to Plan Bay Area 2013, the Draft Preferred Scenario concentrates household growth in the cities of San Jose, San Francisco and Oakland, and along the east and west bayside corridors. In terms of employment, the Draft Preferred Scenario anticipates a modest shift from the growth pattern adopted in Plan Bay Area 2013 and incorporates substantial Page 3 of 5 employment growth that has occurred since 2010. Since 2010, a significant amount of job growth has occurred in bayside communities (46 percent) and in the cities of San Jose, San Francisco and Oakland (37 percent) - areas comprising the preponderance of the region’s commercial space. The Draft Preferred Scenario job growth pattern echoes the current trend over the plan horizon and encompasses a more rigorous analysis of potential employment growth by location. Housing and Employment: Regional Forecast The Bay Area economy has been strong over the past four years, attracting thousands of new people and jobs. As a result, ABAG adopted a revised region al growth forecast in February 2016. This forecast estimates an additional 1.3 million jobs and 2.4 million people, and therefore the need for approximately 820,000 housing units between 2010 and 2040. This represents an increase of 15 percent in employmen t and a 25 percent increase in households, relative to Plan Bay Area 2013. The Draft Preferred Scenario accommodates 100 percent of the needed housing units, and offers a rationale that these units can be built given future market conditions and existing or expected policies to support focused growth at the local, regional or state level. The Draft Preferred Scenario does not mandate any changes to local zoning rules, general plans, or processes for reviewing projects, nor is it an enforceable direct or indirect cap on development locations or targets in the region. As is the case across California, the Bay Area’s cities, towns, and counties maintain control of all decisions to adopt plans and permit or deny development projects. Plan Bay Area 2040 does not establish new state-mandated Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) numbers for each jurisdiction. RHNA operates on an eight-year cycle, with the next iteration not due until the 2021 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Community Strategy (the nex t update of Plan Bay Area). Because RHNA numbers are not at stake this cycle, MTC and ABAG are characterizing this update to the region’s long-range plan as limited and focused. Tables 1 and 2 below summarize the distribution of 2040 employment and househ old forecasts within three regional geographies: Big 3 Cities (the region’s three largest cities - San Jose, San Francisco, and Oakland) Bayside (generally cities directly adjacent to San Francisco Bay - e.g., Hayward, San Mateo, San Rafael and Richmond) Inland, Coastal, and Delta (generally cities just outside of Bayside - e.g., Walnut Creek, Dublin, Santa Rosa, Antioch, Brentwood, Dixon) Page 4 of 5 Table 1: 2040 Household Forecast Subarea 2010 Households Share of 2010 Households 2040 Households Share of 2040 Households Growth in Households from 2010 Share of Regional Growth Total 2,607,000 3,427,000 820,000 Big 3 Cities 802,000 31% 1,151,000 34% 349,000 43% Bayside 1,030,000 39% 1,304,000 38% 275,000 33% Inland, Coastal, Delta 775,000 30% 971,000 28% 196,000 24% in PDA 559,000 21% 1,172,000 34% 613,000 75% outside PDA 2,048,000 79% 2,255,000 66% 207,000 25% Table 2: 2040 Employment Forecast Subarea 2010 Jobs Share of 2010 Jobs 2040 Jobs Share of 2040 Jobs Growth in Jobs from 2010 Share of Regional Growth Total 3,422,000 4,699,000 1,276,000 Big 3 Cities 1,144,000 33% 1,648,000 35% 504,000 40% Bayside 1,405,000 41% 1,997,000 43% 591,000 46% Inland, Coastal, Delta 873,000 26% 1,054,000 22% 181,000 14% in PDA 1,433,000 42% 2,094,000 45% 661,000 52% outside PDA 1,989,000 58% 2,605,000 55% 616,000 48% Housing and Employment: Dublin The Draft Preferred Scenario forecasts household and employment growth for Dublin based on the premise that the region’s future growth will primarily be concentrate d in the cities of San Jose, San Francisco and Oakland, and along the east and west bayside corridors. Table 3 below summarizes the distribution of 2040 household and employment forecasts for Dublin under the Draft Preferred Scenario. Table 4 summarizes City’s estimates for household and employment growth in Dublin based on the Dublin General Plan, Eastern Dublin Specific Plan, Dublin Crossing Specific Plan, Downtown Dublin Specific Plan and the City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy. Table 3: 2040 Household and Employment Forecasts for Dublin (Source: ABAG/MTC) Jurisdiction 2010 Households 2040 Households 2010 Jobs 2040 Jobs Dublin 14,900 23,300 18,100 31,400 in PDA 3,100 8,500 5,000 14,000 outside PDA 11,800 14,800 13,100 17,400 Table 4: 2040 Household and Employment Forecasts for Dublin (Source: City of Dublin) Jurisdiction2010 Households2040 Households2010 Jobs2040 Jobs Dublin 14,900 28,245 18,100 31,008 in PDA 3,100 11,856 5,000 n/a outside PDA 11,800 16,389 13,100 n/a City Staff estimates 4,945 more 2040 Households and 3,356 more PDA households Page 5 of 5 than the Draft Preferred Scenario. Dublin’s three PDA’s include Downtown Dublin, Dublin Transit Center/Dublin Crossing, and Dublin Town Center (see Attachments 1-3). City Staff’s estimates assume full build-out at 2040 under the current General Plan and various Specific Plans. Based on this assumption, 42% of total households in Dublin would be located within a PDA. Under the Draft Preferred Scenario, 36% of households would be located within a PDA. Under the Draft Preferred Scenario, ABAG/MTC is forecasting a slower rate of growth in Dublin by 2040. Employment forecasts under the Draft Preferred Scenario closely align with the City of Dublin Economic Development Strategy. Next Steps MTC and ABAG will be accepting comments on the Draft Preferred Scenario until October 14. This Input will be used to refine the preferred scenario before the MTC Commission and ABAG Executive Board are asked to adopt a final preferred scenario at a joint November 2016 meeting. The final preferred scenario will form the foundation for Plan Bay Area 2040, slated for final adoption in 2017. Staff will prepare a letter to MTC and ABAG advising them of the difference between their housing assumptions and those contained in our General Plan and Specific Plans. Staff recommends that the City Council receive Staff’s presentation and provide direction as appropriate on the housing and employment forecasts in the Draft Preferred Scenario. NOTICING REQUIREMENTS/PUBLIC OUTREACH: Public noticing is not required for informational reports to the City Council. ATTACHMENTS: 1. Downtown Dublin Specific Plan Priority Development Area Map 2. Transit Center/Dublin Crossing Priority Development Area Map 3. Dublin Town Center Priority Development Area Map Downtown Dublin Specific Plan Priority Development Area Priority Development Area M Streets Freeway September 2008 NNOTE The internal system of local streets shown in this figure is illustrative only. 0 100200 400 600 800 12000 Feet 0 - 0.05 0.1 0.2 Miles DOUGHERTY ROAD DOUGHERTY ROAD D O U G H E R T Y D U B LIN B O U L E V A R D DUBLIN BOULEVARD DUBLIN BOULEVARD R O A D MARTINELLI WAY ARNOLD ROAD GLEASON DRIVE ARNOLD ROAD CENTRAL PARKWAY SIE R R A L A N E DUBLIN COURT S C A R L E T T C O U R T SCARLETT DRIVE SCARLETT DRIVE DeMARCUS BOULEVARD SCARLETT COURT IRON HORSE PARKWAY SCARLETT DR SUSSEX DR MOORE PL SUSSEX CT GATWICK CT BRAY CT KERRY CT DRIVE MONTEREY TRINITY COURT LANE HOUSTON PLACE SIERRA DUBLIN BLVD 4TH AVE 6TH ST Dublin TransitCenter/Dublin CrossingPriority Development Area 0 0.1 0.20.05 Miles 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200100Feet Prioirty Development Area Streets Dublin Transit Center/Dublin Crossing Priority Development Area F September 2008 NOTE: The internal system of local streets shown in this figureis illustrative only. Dublin Town Center Priority Development Area WESTBURY WY SAN VICIENTE TE FINNI A N WY WOODR OSE CIWALNUT ST T U R N B E RRY DR CREEKVI E W D R S I G N A L HILL DR FAWN WY WINTERBROOK AV CASTERSON DR KOHNEN WY M A D D E N W Y MANGROVE DR CRESTRIDGE TE E A G L EBROOK TE AVIANO WY OAK B L U F F L A AV E L LINA D R G R A F T O N D R CHANCERY LA TASSAJARA RD T A L L E W Y M AGUIRE WY WHITW ORTH DR MADIGAN AV DUBLIN BL N D U B L I N RANCH DR ANT O N E W Y R I M I N I W Y CENTRAL P W CENTRAL PW GLEASON DR FALLON RD J O H N M O N E G O C T R I D G E F I E L D W Y HACIENDA CROSSING I580 WB DUBLIN BL BRODER BL HARO LP S H A D OW HILL DR O'RYAN ST HAWK WY SPRINGVALE DR HAVEN PL R O S C O M M O N W Y P I P E R G L E N T E S D U B L I N RANC H D R BENT TREE DR PERSIMMON ST GLYNNIS ROSE ST HILLBROOK P L NEWFIEL D S L A TOYOTA DR BARNET BL BELLEVUE CI CL ARINBRIDGE CI ASTERWOOD DR HIBERNIA DR SUMMER GLEN DR ASPEN ST LOCKHART ST HACIENDA DR BRANNIGAN ST TASSAJARA RD Priority Development Area Streets Parcels City of Dublin Dublin Town Center Priority Development Area 0 500 1,000 1,500250Feet F May 2011 NOTE: The internal system of local streets shown in this figureis illustrative only.